Donald Trump’s re-election as US senator took place last week during a Middle East period of extreme uncertainty.
The president-elect has promised to end all war. He has pledged to end the Ukraine conflict within 24 hours of taking business and assist Israel in completing its Gaza and Lebanon operations fast in his usual aggressive and unpredictable ways.
The Middle East is, however, a difficult position. Given the dynamic relations between Iran and its adversary, Saudi Arabia, Trump may have a difficult time balancing his fervent support for Israel with his other goals in the region.
What is Trump expect from his upcoming election campaign. Qatar’s news to put a stop to its role as a peace mediator between Israel and Hamas was overshadowed by the US vote.
Over the past year, the little, oil-rich province has worked diligently to resolve the conflict. It also made great use of Hamas’s political headquarters and base in Doha, as well as its close ties with the United States, which has its largest Middle Eastern military base there. This, Qatar believed, would help it gain the confidence of the opposing parties.
Yet, its efforts were merely limited to a small peace last year, which resulted in the launch of 240 Israeli prisoners in exchange for more than 100 Jewish hostages.
This is due to a number of factors. For one, there are a few key sticking points that the two factors must overcome. A momentary peace has been ruled out by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has pledged to totally end Hamas. Hamas demands a full withdrawal from Gaza and an Israeli military removal.
However, Washington has failed to enjoy a significant role in the speaks. The Biden administration has repeatedly emphasized its need for a ceasefire, but it has never used political language to put any real strain on Israel.
Additionally, it has steadfastly rejected limiting Israel’s defense assistance. Rather, it approved a US$ 20 , billion arms sales to Israel in August. Netanyahu has no convincing reason to deviate from his goal, as a result.
Possible peace in Lebanon
Expectations have been heightened on a ceasefire in Lebanon as the chances of a ceasefire in Gaza have decreased.
Apparently, Washington has been conducting extensive political negotiations to broker a solution between Israel and Hezbollah.
A safety zone should be established between the two countries in order to prevent Hezbollah from being disarmed and pushed back at least 30 kilometers northwest of the Israeli border in southwestern Lebanon. Palestinian officials are likely to reject Israel’s desire to keep the right to hit Hezbollah if necessary.
Hezbollah’s bombing and ground conquest of southern Lebanon by Israel resulted in significant civilian deaths.
However, it has n’t been able to cripple Hezbollah to the extent that it would be forced to accept a ceasefire on Israel’s terms, just as it has been unable to do so for Hamas. The violent group’s political and military skills are still strong enough to endure.
Then, Trump re-enters the picture. His finance minister, Bezalel Smotrich, has asked the appropriate authorities to plan for the proper conquest of Jewish communities in the West Bank as a result of his political success.
Trump has long been a vocal supporter of Israel. During his first president, he , recognized , Jerusalem as the investment of Israel and ordered the US ambassador to move it. In addition, he acknowledged that Israel had a right to control the 1967-seized Golan Heights.
He withdrew the US from the international Iran nuclear agreement and criticized Iran as the actual villain in the area. He even spearheaded the Abraham Accords, which established a framework for international cooperation between Israel and many Arab nations.
The local structure has been altered, but, by the war in Gaza and Lebanon and the primary military markets between Israel and Iran over the past month.
Trump has backed Hamas and Hezbollah without wavering, and he is good to resume his “maximum force” campaign against Iran. Tehran might be subject to stringent restrictions, block its fuel exports, or attempt to isolate it internationally.
However, as a interpersonal leader, Trump even wants to strengthen America’s profitable economic and trade ties with the Egyptian governments of the area.
However, these locations have been shaken by the size of Israel’s Gaza and Lebanon activities. Their leaders ‘ unwillingness to retaliate against Israel’s behavior is causing their communities to swell in anger. Nowhere in the world is this more obvious than Jordan.
Saudi Arabia, America’s richest and most important Muslim ally in the area, has recently taken the lead in voicing strong antagonism to Israel. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia, has also set out to normalize ties with Israel by paving the way for an independent Israeli position.
Additionally, Riyadh is strengthening its more than year-long reconciliation with its dome enemy, Iran. The two nations ‘ security ministers , met , next trip following a , combined military exercise , involving their fleets.
In order to reach a consensus on how to deal with Israel and the incoming Trump administration, Bin Salman has also convened a meeting of Arab and Muslim officials in Riyadh.
Where is it all heading?
Trump will have to strike a balance between maintaining America’s close ties with its classic Arab allies and his determination to Israel. This will be necessary to put an end to Iran’s nuclear program in the Middle East.
Tehran is no longer as susceptible to Trump’s vengeance as it was in the history. It has stronger military ties with Russia, China, and North Korea, as well as stronger ties with local Muslim state.
Given the absence of a Gaza peace, the slim hope of a block to the Lebanon battle, Netanyahu’s intolerance and Trump’s achievement of an” Israel first” plan, the Middle East’s volatility is likely to linger.
In a world where everything is so divided and uncertain, it might be as troubling for Trump as Joe Biden.
At the Australian National University, Professor Emeritus of Middle Eastern and Central Eastern Research Amin Saikal
The Conversation has republished this essay under a Creative Commons license. Read the original post.