The gradual reopening of China – which abandoned the last of the travel restrictions of its zero-COVID policy on Jan 8 – should help its economy expand by 5.2 per cent in 2023, according to the International Monetary Fund’s latest forecast.
With the restrictions having restrained consumption, the reopening of the Chinese economy is being looked at as a growth opportunity for 2023.
Analysts at UBS say 2023 will be the “year of the Chinese consumer”, noting that the pandemic restrictions pushed down the share of Chinese consumers in global luxury spending to 17 per cent last year, compared with 33 per cent before the pandemic.
“VOLCANO READY TO EXPLODE”
“The Chinese clientele is much more important than it was in 2019,” LVMH’s financial director Jean-Jacques Guiony told journalists.
Guiony does not expect Chinese tourists to return to Europe, where they traditionally spent heavily on luxury goods, before next year.
Instead, luxury groups are focusing on Chinese consumers at home.
LVMH’s Arnault said it was no secret that China needs growth and that the government would likely take steps to facilitate economic expansion as the country reopens.
“If that is indeed the case – and it began in the month of January – we have every reason to be confident, even optimistic about the Chinese market,” he said at the presentation of LVMH’s 2022 results.
China is a “volcano ready to explode”, said Arnaud Cadart at asset manager Flornoy Ferri.
“There is an incredible amount of savings that has been built up, an incredible reserve in the hands of the well-off class which wants to purchase luxury goods,” he added.
Cadart estimated the luxury market in China could jump by 30 per cent this year.
Kering’s chief executive Francois-Henri Pinault visited China at the end of January and said he was amazed by the people thronging stores “like the virus had never been in China”.
“This is a good sign,” said Pinault, who also welcomed moves by Chinese authorities to boost domestic consumption.