The Paetongtarn Shinawatra administration’s policies have possible, according to economists and political economists, but the government will have to rush and see how they turn out.
Ms Paetongtarn next Thursday delivered her administration’s policy speech to congress, focusing on measures to improve person’s financial well-being and increase the government’s income.
Mr Paetongtarn outlined plans for debt restructuring, especially concerning home and auto loans, alongside assistance for casual debtors. Long-term procedures were also mentioned, such as developing pleasure compounds, which include casinos, and a water management initiative to combat consistent flood and drought.
Before beginning job, the government is required to provide its policy speech to parliament.
Focus on financial comfort
Nonarit Bisonyabut, a senior research fellow at Thailand Development Research Institute ( TDRI), backed the policy statement, although he pointed out that 20–30 % of key elements appeared to be missing.
” We must realize that this is still only a plan news, basically an idea. We’ll have to see whether or not these tips can be put into practice, he said.
Comprehensive debt reform is a wise and essential course of action, particularly given the country’s skyrocketing rates of home debt, he said. The key problem, however, is to find an effective strategy, as previous attempts, including loan suspension and dialogue, have met limited achievement.
He claimed that while it is vital to pay off household debt, the government must figure out a way to avoid delaying the process for generations to come.
Mr Nonarit welcomed the government’s revision of its 10, 000-baht digital budget system, although the plan also requires large spending.
During the first stage, the signal money will be first distributed to 14.5 million susceptible people, or 12.4 million with state security accounts and 2.1 million disabled persons, with each receiving 10, 000 ringgit.
The second phase, which is for registered ready consumers, depends on the preparation of the settlement program itself. In the fiscal year 2025, a budget of 187 billion ringgit has been designated for transmission.
Giving out money to the most vulnerable parties, according to Mr. Nonarit, may have the desired effect. The transition to cash payment, which is expected to be relatively simple, is expected to have a significant effect.
The second phase would assist those who are still in need despite not having any monetary issues.
Nonarit: Handbook for vulnerable groups simply
Thanaporn Sriyakul, chairman of the Political and Public Policy Analysis Institute, said the Paetongtarn state focuses heavily on economic plans, which address the person’s lives.
He urged the government to accelerate its debt restructuring and finish it in 15 days because the issue is immediately under the president’s control, with the release date set for later this month.
Mr. Thanaporn cited as an illustration the success of debt reform initiatives for cover in which cost payments to the Financial Institutions Development Fund were lowered to help consumers from state businesses.
The banks ‘ “principle is sound,” he said, but “improvements may be needed to make sure they use the funds to restructure debts for those in need rather than to fund their regular projects.
” This should not be difficult for the Finance Ministry to handle, given the clear financial parameters involved”, he added.
Thanaporn: Complete debt restructuring now
Megaproject concerns
Mr. Nonarit described legalizing some underground economic activities as part of a casino-entertainment complex as intriguing but difficult. While it could bring economic benefits, there are also social downsides to consider.
” As a concept, it’s intriguing and has potential. The real question is how to make it work”, he said.
Megaprojects like the Land Bridge have significant economic repercussions, and his concern is with the state’s budgetary constraints.
There are financial risks if the government ends up paying a significant portion of the project’s cost, he added, and it is unclear how much investment will be made by the state and the private sector.
” Undoing it, there is talk about a land reclamation project and the construction of nine artificial islands to combat rising sea levels,” he said. None of these topics were covered in the election campaign.
According to Mr. Nonarit, governments have a tight window of time to address the long-term issues that are causing natural disasters to become more severe as a result of climate change. Furthermore, even long-term planning may become obsolete because of constant changes.
The most recent concept, similar to the” Sponge City” concept, focuses on designing cities to allow people to coexist with water rather than try to combat it, he said, noting the government has been slow to take this approach into account.
He argued that local organizations and communities must work together to stop climate change and that the government alone cannot stop it.
Mr. Thanaporn claimed that the government’s new megaprojects are in line with the vision of former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who is frequently referred to as the “big boss” of the ruling Pheu Thai Party. Thaksin is Ms Paetongtarn’s father.
Thaksin is known for smuggling big ideas into people’s minds to pique interest and draw attention, but he claimed that these tactics frequently fall short of expectations.
Given previous projects tainted by irregularities, like the Baan Ua-arthorn housing welfare scheme and the rice-pledging project, megaprojects today often raise concerns about potential corruption, he said.
” Let’s wait and see how the Land Bridge and casino-entertainment complex projects develop”, he said.
Deal with debt first
Chaiwat Sathawornwichit, a list-MP of the opposition People’s Party, said the government must prioritise tackling household debt as some families are struggling financially and resorting to non-formal loans.
Despite declaring it a national agenda item, he claimed, the Srettha Thavisin administration failed to address debt issues.
He suggested that the government might consider lowering interest rates and payment obligations as well, and that lowering income and lowering the cost of living may not be sufficient.
He claimed that because there are n’t enough effective measures, the government needs to find solutions to the problem.
” If the government keeps on relying on superficial activities like holding press conferences and hosting]promotional ] events, the problem will persist”, he said.
The digital wallet scheme, according to Mr. Chaiwat, should be put on hold because it is unprofitable. He claimed that the 450 billion baht program funding would be better spent on pressing issues like providing soft loans to those in need.
He also criticised the government’s foreign policy as being rather weak, saying Thailand is the second-largest economy in Asean and should position itself more strategically.
Additionally, he claimed that the government should increase cooperation with other countries in light of the rapid rise in call-center scams.
Chaiwat: Downplays ‘ Baan Pa ‘ threat
Potential risks
When asked about the challenges the government faces, Mr. Thanaporn stated that amending the charter is not a pressing issue and that there are indications that the situation may continue. He claimed that the Senate may be dragging its feet with the proposed public referendum.
If the government wants to have the charter changed before the next general election, he said, the prime minister will need to talk with the Bhumjaithai Party, which is thought to have ties to the majority of senators.
The political analyst noted that the risk to the government is low despite the legal conflict and intense scrutiny from the Palang Pracharath Party following the removal of a PPRP leader’s faction from the cabinet.
” I do n’t think there are significant risks for the government, which has the overwhelming majority. Legal threats from Baan Pa will likely fall as the political landscape is shifting]to Bhumjaithai]”, he said.
” Baan Pa” refers to the Five Provinces Bordering Forest Preservation Foundation, at the 1st Infantry Regiment in Bangkok’s Phaya Thai district. The foundation is believed to be Gen Prawit’s unofficial office.
According to Mr. Chaiwat, the government has a “family cabinet” mentality, which leaves state officials unsure about who is actually in charge and unsure about policy continuity.
The opposition MP also expressed doubt that the government is interested in rewriting the charter because it is a broad topic. He expressed doubts about the efficacy of the drug control policy as a result of the government’s inconsistent stance on marijuana.
Mr. Chaiwat noted that having several coalition partners does influence the formulation of the government’s policy, and this is evident in the cabinet lineup.
According to him, the stability of the government will likely depend on how interests are divided and divided among the coalition partners.