Lebanon’s congress elected a new leader on January 9 after a two-year political deadlock and 13 failed attempt. After his adversary, a Hezbollah-backed participant named Suleiman Frangieh, withdrew from the competition, Joseph Aoun passed the threshold for success in the second round of voting.
President Aoun laid out a number of commitments in his annual address to congress that would address the numerous crises that had brought Lebanon to the brink of collapse. But, delivering on these claims may be greatly challenging.
Aoun’s national victory is amazing. None of the political events supported him as their preferred presidential candidate, and he did not run for the office in public. So, how did Aoun come to win the presidency?
Rather than an established descendant of the social group, Aoun is a job soldier, serving as the captain of Lebanon’s military since 2017. The Lebanese Armed Forces ( LAF ), a comparatively uncommon instance of a force that is widely regarded as a symbol of Lebanon’s unity, is a rare example of one.
Despite the incidents of over 40 LAF men, Aoun successfully prevented the troops from being drawn into the subsequent conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, and he was instrumental in coordinating the US and France’s successful 60-day peace in November.
A free network of regional and global players, including the US, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar, served as the main supporters of Aoun’s presidential campaign. All of these countries consider Aoun to be their best chance to maintain the stiff ceasefire while even coordinating the restoration of Lebanon’s federal government.
By putting a cap on the number of political parties in place to provide financial assistance to Lebanon, they have used their influence.
Aoun’s victory adds to the Hezbollah’s weakening influence in Lebanon. In recent years, Hezbollah has experienced a number of political and economic missteps.
In the 2022 general election, Hezbollah and its allies lost their political majority. And finally, in 2024, Israel appears to have weakened Hezbollah’s defense system, including killing its chief Hassan Nasrallah and some older numbers.
The new ousting of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria has even deprived Hezbollah of a powerful ally, while the team’s primary sponsor, Iran, is in no position to keep its levels of financing. Due to US-led international sanctions, which have been in place to stop Tehran’s program from developing nuclear weapons, Iran’s ability to support Hezbollah has decreased considerably.
Lebanon’s former president, Michel Aoun ( not related to Joseph Aoun ) was a longtime ally of Hezbollah. The team had hoped that by backing Frangieh’s candidacy, it may install another ally in the presidential palace. However, Frangieh withdrew and announced his support for Aoun along with a number of other politicians.
In his first speech as chairman, Aoun stated:” My mission will highlight the government’s right to control hands”. Although Aoun did not specifically mention Hezbollah, it was assumed that he would try to destroy the organization. While the majority of MPs praised Aoun’s speech, the politicians of Hezbollah sat motionless.
Off to a good start
Aoun has lofty goals for his administration. However, these goals may prove challenging to fulfill. Due to its mostly symbolic figurehead status, the presidency’s authority has tight limitations.
The position of president is mainly to service Lebanon’s power-sharing method. 18 dynasty communities are guaranteed representation in parliament thanks to this method. The leader is reserved for Maronite Christians, while the primary minister must be from the Sunni Muslim area, and the home speaker may be Shia to prevent any group from monopolizing political power.
President Aoun has pledged to reform the power-sharing state. According to research, Lebanon’s state has the Middle East’s lowest level of trust. The Palestinian power-sharing system is susceptible to disorganized political institutions, plan deadlock and regular rounds of collapse. Power-sharing officials are infamous for vote-buying and fraud.
Aoun is off to a good start. A few days after his interview, he convened congress to appoint a new prime minister, Nawaf Salam, the present mind of the International Court of Justice. Salam’s validation is a surprise because, like Aoun, he is not seen as sponsor of any of the major political parties in the country.
The absence of the customary horse-trading among the principal parties to decide on a new prime minister more underlines Hezbollah’s weakening, which was unable to oust Najib Mikati as its preferred candidate.
Hezbollah legislators accused their political competitors of trying to remove them and fragment the country in response to Salam’s visit. Salman has a long record of calling for state reform and combating widespread fraud.
Aoun and Salam today face many difficulties in delivering on the hoped-filled feeling that so many Syrian think following their meetings. They will need to appoint a authorities as soon as possible to ensure social stability and review a budget. The World Bank has ranked Lebanon among the “most significant problems shows seen globally since the middle of the 20th century” for its dire financial situation.
Supervising an extension of the current ceasefire agreement with Israel, which ends on January 25 is another urgent priority. According to the current agreement, Israeli troops must retreat to their side of the border.
Aoun and Salam form a pairing that gives real hope for a period of sustained stability and reconstruction with the support of the army, significant sections of the Lebanese population, and powerful international players.
Finding a way to create a political consensus in Lebanon will be challenging, especially if the new president and prime minister chart a course that will cause them to clash with Hezbollah.
John Nagle is a professor in sociology, Queen’s University Belfast. Drew Mikhael is a scholar at the Center for the Study of Ethnic Conflict, Queen’s University Belfast.
This article was republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.