Cambodia will undergo monumental “generational succession” after next weekend’s general election, with Prime Minister Hun Sen set to step down after almost four decades in power and be replaced by his eldest son Hun Manet, according to leaked official documents seen by Asia Times.
Apart from Hun Sen’s own dynastic succession, which will see Hun Manet, 45, take over as prime minister, the sons of powerful Interior Minister Sar Kheng and Defense Minister Tea Banh will also inherit their fathers’ jobs, according to the leaked lists.
Of 30 cabinet posts, there will purportedly be 23 new ministers when the next cabinet is formed, which Hun Sen has said will happen by the end of August. All but one of the ten incumbent deputy prime ministers will retire, according to the same leaked lists.
Many, like Hun Manet, are in their 40s and the children of retiring ruling party grandees. However, analysts told Asia Times that there are many competent and compelling appointees on the list, an indication that the inchoate Manet administration will attempt to build a technocratic governance image.
The Interior Ministry will be inherited by Sar Kheng’s son, Sar Sokha, 43, who is currently a secretary of state at the education ministry and head of Cambodia’s football association. Tea Seiha, 42, the governor of Siem Reap province, will take over the defense ministry from his father, according to the leaked lists.
Vongsey Vissoth, an experienced minister attached to the prime minister’s office and a permanent secretary of state of the finance ministry, will become the new Minister in Charge of the Office of the Council of Ministers, an important post that decides when the cabinet meets and what it discusses. He will likely ensure Hun Sen maintains an active role in future cabinet meetings.
Sok Chenda Sophea, secretary-general of the Council for the Development of Cambodia, a body that assesses foreign investment, is expected to become the next foreign minister.
Some old faces will remain, including Finance Minister Aun Pornmoniroth, 57, who will apparently be the only deputy prime minister who keeps that position. Ing Kantha Phavi, the women’s affairs minister since 2004, will also keep her job, according to the leaked lists.
The ruling Cambodian People’s Party (CPP), in power since 1979, is assured victory at the July 23 general election after having banned its only viable challenger from competing in the ballot.
It is projected to win the vast majority, if not all, seats in parliament, just as it did at the last general election in 2018 after banning its Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP) rival. All efforts are now being made to ensure high voter turnout to provide a veneer of legitimacy for the succession plans.
Hun Manet has featured prominently in the CPP’s campaign rallies, where on at least one occasion he was handed the ruling party’s flag by his father in a symbolic and public gesture as the campaign got underway earlier this month.
For almost a decade, Hun Sen, 70, has meticulously planned his dynastic succession.
In 2018, Hun Manet was appointed army chief and deputy commander in chief of the Royal Cambodian Armed Forces. The CPP’s Central Committee approved him as the party’s future prime ministerial candidate in late 2021.
In April, Hun Manet temporarily stepped down from the military so he could run for parliament at the July 23 election.
Hun Sen has said he will remain CPP president after resigning as prime minister, a post that will allow him to continue to dictate policy and personnel choices.
Because of constitutional amendments that he rushed through last year which weakened the National Assembly’s ability to choose a prime minister or censure a minister, Hun Sen will now have even more power.
It was previously unclear when Hun Sen would actually step down. Some commentators suspected this at some point in the mid-term before the 2028 general election. However, it now appears that he has at least made preparations to depart before the next cabinet is formed.
The leaked lists were spread on social media last weekend by accounts associated with Cambodia’s now-banned opposition parties, raising suspicions that they may have been faked.
However, Asia Times spoke to several government and diplomatic sources who said the names and positions tally with information they have also been provided. It also chimes with details that have leaked over the past 12 months.
For instance, this writer heard last year that another of Hun Sen’s sons, Hun Many, 40, was tipped to become minister of the civil service, which the leaked lists confirm.
In order to sell his own son’s rise to the top job, it is believed Hun Sen pledged that a “generational succession” would also take place, in which the children or relatives of all grandees would rise through the ranks.
According to the leaks, Eang Sophalleth is tipped to become environment minister. He is the son-in-law of Chea Sophara, an outgoing deputy prime minister and land management minister.
Cham Nimol, a secretary of state at the commerce ministry, will become commerce minister. She is the daughter of former commerce minister Cham Prasidh.
The children of deceased party grandees will also get promotions. Sok Soken, a son of Sok An, a longtime close ally of Hun Sen and former minister in charge of the Council of Ministers, is purported to become the next tourism minister.
Meanwhile, Chea Somethy, a son of the late Chea Sim, a former CPP president, is expected to be named Minister for Social Affairs, Veterans and Youth Rehabilitation.
A number of the appointees are Hun Manet’s closest aides, including Heng Sour (tipped to be labor minister) and Huot Hak (minister for National Assembly-Senate relations). Many of them are affiliated with Hun Manet through the ruling party’s youth wing, of which he was made president in 2020.
Chay Borin, a parliamentarian from Tboung Khmum province, is being lined up as religion minister seemingly because of his close association with Manet within the CPP youth organization (Khmer-language press have referred to him as Manet’s “representative.”)
Importantly, a clean sweep of deputy prime ministers also appears likely. Of the current 10 politicians who hold that rank, only Finance Minister Aun Pornmoniroth will stay on, according to the leaked lists.
The likes of Sar Sokha and Tea Seiha are listed as incoming deputy prime ministers. So, too, are National Police Chief General Neth Savoeun and Sun Chanthol, the apparently outgoing minister of public works.
There will be more continuity among the permanent ministers, who lack cabinet portfolios but are tasked with special projects.
Those who are forecast to remain in their posts include Kun Kim, Ho Sithy, Om Yentieng, Ieng Moly, Islam Hassan and Ly Thuch. Incoming permanent ministers include Pich Sophorn, a secretary of state at the labor ministry; Prum Sokha, a secretary of state at the Ministry of Public Service; and Ouk Rabun, the current minister of rural development.
Analysts who spoke to Asia Times on the condition of anonymity said they had expected patronage appointments in the lists, which are necessary to balance the influence networks within the party.
Had the Hun family gained too much power and not divided the spoils of dictatorship among most of the important political families, it might have bred intra-party tensions and potentially a rival to Manet for the top job, they said.
However, they added that there appear to be genuine technocrats among the appointees. One analyst who saw the list said they were impressed that, in the more technical ministries, the CPP appears to be prioritizing competence over loyalty.
If the list is legitimate, Chheang Ra, who is currently director general of Calmette Hospital, the capital’s flagship public hospital, will become the new health minister. Keo Rattanak, secretary general of state-run electricity utility Electricite du Cambodge, will become minister for energy and mines.
The expected future minister of rural planning is Chhay Rithysen, an engineer who studied at America’s elite Massachusetts Institute of Technology and is currently director general at the General Department of Land Management and general secretary of the ministry’s Board of Architects.
Even when there’s nepotism clearly involved, that doesn’t mean that the new generation appointees necessarily lack talent.
Most commentators would agree that Dith Tina – the 44-year-old son of Supreme Court chief Dith Munthy, who forcibly banned the CNRP in 2017 – has excelled since last year becoming agricultural minister, a post he is expected to keep. So, too, is the competent Koeut Rith, who has been justice minister since 2020.
Cham Nimol has held various positions at the commerce ministry since her early 20s, at a time when her father, Cham Prasidh, was the minister. If she becomes commerce minister, at least the 43-year-old would have had almost two decades working within the ministry.
Follow David Hutt on Twitter at @davidhuttjourno