On Friday ( Sep 27 ), Japan’s ruling party will hold one of its most erratic leadership contests in history. This may result in the country’s youngest or first female premier, or a well-known veteran winning his fifth and final leadership bid.
Fumio Kishida’s resignation as current premier was sparked in August when he announced his intentions to step down in light of a string of scandals that caused the Liberal Democratic Party’s ( LDP ) ratings to record lows.
Surveys suggest three individuals have the advantage in a document nine-strong industry: ex-environment secretary and heir to a political dynasty Shinjiro Koizumi, 43, financial security secretary Sanae Takaichi, 63, and former defence secretary Shigeru Ishiba, 67.
Who is chosen may avert home-grown rage over rising living costs and manage East Asia’s increasingly erratic security environment, which is fueled by China’s and North Korea’s growing nuclear arsenal.
By October 2025, the LDP, which has dominated Japan almost entirely during the post-war time and has a majority in parliament, has hold a public vote. If Koizumi wins, he has pledged to keep a snap election that could take place as early as the following quarter.
” It’s safe to assume that Ishiba, Takaichi, and Koizumi will do quite well, but I really can’t say who out of those three did win the race”, said Yu Uchiyama, a professor of politics at Tokyo University.
” I do n’t think we’ll know until the very last moment”.
The result from the ballot, compromised of votes from each of the LDP’s 368 lawmakers and an equal number distributed among rank-and-file members, is expected around 2.20pm JST ( 5.20pm GMT ).
A run-off surveys will be conducted between the two individuals with the most votes if no candidate secures a plain lot, which is anticipated given the large industry.
In the run-off, each senator repeatedly gets one ballot, but the share of the rank-and-file falls to 47 seats, one for each of Japan’s regions. That consequence is expected at 3.30pm.
Usually, strong party factions have swung in batch behind represented candidates, making it easier to determine who may prevail.
Although party elders will continue to have impact, most of these factions have just been disbanded as a result of a scandal involving unreported political donations, making this vote more difficult to predict, according to analysts.