The visit by Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida to South Korea , earlier this month , created a dozen vibrations. No significant presentations were made, and the two officials vowed to keep working to improve relations.
In South Korea, the opposition Democratic Party , issued , a somewhat tradition criticism of the Yoon Suk-yeol state for “undermining national attention with a subordinate politics toward Japan”.
Why, therefore, did this visit taking place? Following his decision to not run for re-election as president of the ruling conservative Liberal Democratic Party ( LDP ), the majority of analysts pointed to Kishida’s desire to cement his legacy. The choice of Kashida to move down led to an unprecedentedly competitive election to elect a new party leader who may serve as prime minister.  ,
Nine candidates , are competing for the ballot on September 27, which includes a first round of seats among registered party members, followed by a runoff between the bottom two finishers—only LDP people in the parliamentary National Diet join, along with one vote from each of the 47 provincial pages.
There is another reason for the Seoul mountain if you examine the contentious debate carefully. Kishida may become really concerned about the viability of his diplomatic efforts in Korea and Japan.
The presence of South Korea
LDP politics have always been focused on domestic problems, from the corruption issue and reform to economic policy in general. In the candidates ‘ policy websites and primary conversations, foreign and security procedures have been at most supplementary topics.
Yet acknowledging the importance of Kishida’s efforts to improve diplomatic relations, it is noteworthy that there is no mention of South Korea or the importance of diplomatic relationships in any president’s platform.
Unfortunately, perhaps, only North Korea comes up in individuals ‘ statements, with mandatory pledges to try to resolve the issue of Chinese abductees by the North Korean government.
Shinjiro Koizumi, one of the candidates in the election and the son of the former prime minister who visited North Korea in the early 2000s,  , declared , his readiness to hold a summit with Kim Jong Un without any preconditions.
The lack of attention to South Korea may not necessarily indicate a cooling of relations following the change in leadership. Former US national security official Michael Green argued earlier this spring, in a , JoongAng Ilbo , column , anticipating Kishida’s departure, that the momentum in improved relations would likely persist despite political change, not only in Japan but even in Korea.
He cited a consensus among Japanese strategists that a relationship was necessary for Japan’s own national security. Green thinks that the most likely successors had” no reason to stop the progress being made with Korea.”
Certainly, some of the candidates are wedded to a , continuation , of Kishida’s foreign and security policies. Candidates with the most experience in foreign policy are candidates with the most acclaim: former foreign minister Yoshimasa Hayashi, former foreign minister Taro Kono, and LDP Secretary General Toshimitsu Motegi.
If current Japanese polling is to be believed, however, none of these candidates are likely to make the runoff.  , Polls , show the three most likely candidates, along with a fourth who is a longer shot.
The three candidates are Economic Security Minister Sanae Takaichi, the party’s most acrimonious right-wing figure, and Shigeru Ishiba, the youngest and least experienced candidate. The dark horse, also hailing from the Abe faction, is former Economic Security Minister Takayuki Kobayashi.
The dangers ahead
Koizumi and Takaichi are two choices that have the most likely negative effects on Korean-Japan relations. Both men regularly make visits to the contentious Yasukuni Shrine, which regularly elicits official protests and ire from Koreans.
Koizumi has indicated that he will continue this policy as prime minister, following in his father’s footsteps. Takaichi, who visited the shrine on August 15 as a cabinet minister, has also clearly stated her intention to visit as Japan’s leader.
Koizumi’s foreign policy is somewhat akin to a gimmick. His , platform , contains broad and vague statements on the importance of” strong diplomacy”, moving ahead on defense spending, strengthening the US-Japan alliance and security coordination with “like-minded countries like Australia”, and support for a “free and open Indo-Pacific”.
Koizumi again calls for summit-level discussion with China and North Korea, without making any mention of South Korea. Koizumi is regarded as an internationalist because he has studied in the United States and briefly collaborated with Mike Green at the Washington, DC Center for Strategic and International Studies. But other than a brief stint as environment minister, he has no government experience.
In contrast, the views of Takaichi, who would be Japan’s first female leader if elected, are better known. She is a member of Nippon Kaigi, a well-known group of conservatives who hold firmly revisionist views on issues relating to wartime history.
She has raised questions about the accuracy of Kono’s statement regarding comfort women, which acknowledges the Imperial Japanese Army’s role in forcing Korean and other women into sexual servitude during the war. At the time of President Yoon’s election, she opposed Kishida ‘s , attendance , at his inauguration.
Takaichi has recently been more cautious and has backed efforts to improve relations. ” We have built an extremely good relationship”, Takaichi , said , when announcing her candidacy on September 9.
” Prime Minister Kishida has put in a lot of effort. Japan, the United States, and South Korea should strengthen their security ties given that the world’s security environment is regarded as the worst in the world.
However, Takaichi, in a somewhat subtlely critical comment, added,” In recent years, Japanese music has been able to be broadcast freely in Korea. I’m pleased that Koreans are singing songs from the era of Showa. We will expand our cooperation in the areas where it is possible.
Ishiba, who has a reputation as a defense hawk and is also the most receptive to taking positions opposed to those of former prime minister Abe, would be the most advantageous choice for Korea-Japan relations.
Some view him as a nationalist in the De Gaulle style who is more interested in engaging with Asia and willing to take positions outside of the United States. In this campaign, he has  , called , for the creation of an Asian collective security organization and stressed the need to improve ties with China.
Regarding South Korea, Ishiba has been much more open about acknowledging Japan’s colonial error and backing up closer ties. ” It is of utmost importance now for Japan to build a solid relationship of trust with South Korea”, he said in a , December 2023 interview.
Ishiba disproves traditionalist beliefs by claiming that the Korean annexation of 1910 was unlawful. ” There’s no need to flatter Korea or to lay out the logic of the past, but we should admit that what was a mistake was a mistake”, he said. ” We must redouble our emphasis on the importance of Japan and South Korea understanding one another and working together,” he said.
At this point, the future of Korea-Japan relations is uncertain. There are strong allies who support continuity, but there is a real chance of a step backward, if not a dysfunctional one. The leadership election in Japan has now grown to be a more significant and significant source of uncertainty.
The election of a candidate like Takaichi will likely stifle South Korea’s efforts to reconcile with Japan’s wartime and colonial history issues and feed those who oppose his conciliatory policy toward Japan.
Daniel Sneider is a non-resident distinguished fellow at the Korea Economic Institute of America and a lecturer for international policy and East Asian studies at Stanford University. The views expressed here are the author’s alone.
Republished with KEI’s permission, which is a public company established by the Republic of Korea’s government as an agent for the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy ( FARA ). Additional information is available at the Department of Justice, Washington, DC. Read the original here.