US Ambassador Rahm Emanuel’s recent Washington Post article, “What no expert saw coming: the rise of Japan,” lauds the country’s progress on the defense, economic, and diplomatic fronts over the last couple of years (since he arrived in Tokyo).
If the ambassador is surprised, he was talking to the wrong people before he went to Japan.
Japan and the Japanese have always been capable of doing whatever they need to do – whenever they feel they must. Yes, that can sometimes require a crisis of sorts – and it can sometimes be foreigners who create the crisis for them.
There’ve always been plenty of Japanese in the official and political classes who know what Japan needs to do to hold its own and advance its interests – while being a good ally with the US and other “informal” allies.
Sometimes foreign pressure or action gives them cover. And this allows Japan Inc to move without anyone taking responsibility for whatever it is that is done. In Japan the brash, take-charge, non-risk-averse kind of guy is not exactly popular (unlike the case in America).
The Japanese citizenry does, however, respond well to someone who has a plan and acts like a leader. Former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe did that during his second term and was popular – and successful. He simply was the first prime minister, among a dozen or so who held the post over a three-decade period, who acted as if he knew what he was doing and was operating according to a thought-out agenda.
The ambassador’s article is basically a public relations puff piece. It’s true enough in parts.
But it elides the small facts that Japan – not just the Japanese Self Defense Force (JSDF) – is in no way ready to fight a war and, even worse, most of the country’s leadership (as opposed to the public in general) doesn’t appear to want to get ready or to do the necessary things to help the Americans fight a war.
Doubling the defense budget? Yes, they’ll spend more but they don’t really know what to spend it on – and the Americans haven’t told them.
Japan should be much farther along, and it could be. But while it recognizes the threat from China – and did so before Washington and the US Indo-Pacific Command finally sort of awoke – it doesn’t feel any real pressure, even from the United States, to take the necessary concrete measures to bolster its defense.
As for what’s doable militarily: In 2011 the experts said it was impossible for Japan to have an amphibious force. Too sensitive with the Japanese public and it would also arouse the Chinese. Japan is pacifist. Unconstitutional. Will never happen. Impossible.
Turns out it wasn’t. Within a year and a half, Japan had a rudimentary capability and sent an ad hoc amphibious task force to Southern California to do some real training – at which the visitors did very well. From “impossible” to capability in 18 months? Not bad.
And Japan has gone about developing some very useful capabilities in outer space over the last few decades – including intelligence collection capabilities.
Before Rahm Emanuel showed up, Japan also had been quietly offering defense/security assistance in a few places – such as providing patrol boats and building dual-use infrastructure in the Philippines.
While praising Japan’s defense progress it’s necessary to realize that a lot more could have been accomplished if the United States had played its cards right. The Americans just needed to follow the advice they received 50+ years ago when Kakuei Tanaka was Prime Minister: “Tell us what you want – and don’t back down.”
Japan’s economic ‘recovery’?
That probably has more to do with China screwing things and itself to the point where even the fools on Wall Street had to take notice. The Bank of Japan and Ministry of Finance did their best to fleece the taxpayers and impose austerity. But there’s a point at which outside forces overwhelmed that.
And that goes to the nature of Japan. It has the huge advantage of being a basically decent place with a mostly honest market that respects property rights. It is somewhere where you can have a contract enforced.
Japan just had to sit tight and wait for the world – money and business – to come to it. It is unfortunate that Japanese citizens had to wait 30 years.
Japanese diplomacy rightly deserves Ambassador Emanuel’s praise – though US diplomats can attest that it can sometimes seem like negotiating with the North Koreans when talking “basing issues” with their Japanese counterparts.
Tokyo has done well dealing with South Korea following the fortuitous arrival of a conservative, pro-Western administration in Seoul. Tokyo was willing to patch things up at any time beforehand. It just took external change.
Japanese diplomacy also has a different vibe – and this often works to its advantage. Sometimes it seems to get more for its money than do the Americans, say, when dealing with Pacific Island nations, other regional countries and India, for example.
As for Japan’s diplomacy on the defense front, it’s been building ties with other nations’ militaries for some time now – and in the pre-Emanuel period, too.
It’s good Japan is doing this. But the defense agreements with other nations don’t amount to so much. The Germans and the Italians are going to send their navies to help Japan? Or the Australians will send one of their eleven warships?
The advantage is mostly political, at best, in most cases
Political advantage is not to be sniffed at – but it’s still just political advantage and doesn’t get you more ships, missiles and aircraft to take on your enemies.
There’s nothing wrong with praising Japan’s achievements. But this sort of tribute, from an ambassador no less, creates the impression in Tokyo (and Washington) that everything is just fine. Sort of like the way US officials for many years repeated the mantra, “The US-Japan relationship has never been stronger.” More sober assessments were unwelcome.
Ultimately, the Japanese will do whatever they think they need to do – though they are not mind-readers and one should remember Tanaka Kakuei’s advice mentioned earlier.
Also, treat the Japan like friends and equals, which they are, and expect them to perform – and they will.
And that shouldn’t surprise anyone.
Grant Newsham is a retired US Marine officer and a former US diplomat and business executive. He lived in Japan for over 20 years and had a substantial role in development of its amphibious warfare capability. He is the author of the book When China Attacks: A Warning To America.