The months-long conflict in Gaza has had a strong impact on the Iranian government. Iran’s opposition to the US-dominated world get gains more respect in the Arab world with each missile Israel launches against Gaza, every US filibuster of a UN Security Council peace resolution, and every imprisonment of a rebel on British university campuses.
The ruling administrative government in Iran has built its international policy on the pillar of anti- Americanism, rejecting what it frames as the “injustice” of US domination and “bullying” of various countries. In light of an increasing international backlash, Washington’s continued support of Israel’s occupation of Gaza has only strengthened this theory.
The US’s efforts to backtrack and say that Israel’s conduct of the war should be guided by humanitarian reasons have failed, but the US’s reputation has been damaged. Many people around the world, particularly in Muslim nations, do not believe that the awaited US warnings to Israel are accurate.
And Tehran’s anti-Americanism message resonates with a large portion of the Muslim world’s population.
In one regional opinion survey in late October, for instance, just 7 % of respondents said the US had a positive impact on the war, compared to 40 % who viewed Iran’s role as positive.
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s approval ratings, according to the respected Arab Barometer, were higher than those of the Emirati president and crown prince in December.
The political elite in the area are concerned about this alteration in Iran’s standing in the area.
What Iran aimed to accomplish by attacking Israel
Iran’s reputation has grown even more since it is the only Muslim state to attack Israel in response to the public’s outcry over the Gaza war.
Two crucial goals were aimed at the Iranian missile and drone attack on Israel on April 13.
First, Iran’s leaders sought to preserve the country’s image as the self- appointed head of the” axis of resistance“, comprised of its proxies in the region – Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen and other militia groups in Iraq and Syria.
Iran also wished to demonstrate the viability of its deterrence strategy, which is based on Iran’s proxy actors ‘ growing arsenal of missile and drone technology and its deterrence strategy.
Iran was unable to contract out its support to its proxies two weeks after Israel attacked its diplomatic mission in Damascus. Iran’s position among its allies and proxies had been seriously weakened by not responding in kind to the Israeli attack, even though it was obvious that it was not ready to declare war on Israel.
Iran’s leaders, however, made an effort to stop the damage and lessen the risk of an escalation by proactively warning Israel through intermediaries to stop it from attacking. Without engaging in a full-fledged war, Iran could save its face.
Iran’s second goal was to demonstrate to the world that it has the capability to fire back at Israel if it so chooses.
Iran has been displaying its missiles at annual military parades for more than ten years to back up its claim that it can attack Israel if threatened. More than 300 drones and missiles were involved in its attack last month. Despite the fact that Israel was suffering, the attack demonstrated that Iran is now able to cause harm.
Israel’s limited response to Iran suggests that war has been averted, much to the relief of neighboring countries. However, Iran is more benefited by the long-term effects. Its rejectionist foreign policy may have been influenced by this strong showing in the Muslim world and beyond.
When Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi visited Pakistan on April 23, for example, he was greeted like a celebrity. This was ironic as, earlier this year, Iran and Pakistan had engaged in tit- for- tat aerial attacks.
The two nations agreed to increase bilateral trade by about five times the current level to US$ 10 billion. Additionally, they jointly called on the UN Security Council to intervene against Israel, claiming that it had “illegally” targeted neighboring nations and diplomatic missions.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi also expressed support for Iran in the following statements:
In response to the attack on its embassy, China took note of Iran’s claim that its actions were restrained and self-defense.
What this might mean for the area
A more powerful Iran has serious effects on the region. The recent events have rekindled their resolve, according to the Iranian authorities. This means that their anti-US and anti-Israel rhetoric will continue to be unwavering.
Iran’s research and development program for drones and missiles is likely to experience a boost as well. Additionally, Iran will continue to support its network of proxies and allies with allegiance, allowing the Iranian government to exercise its deterrence ability and expand its influence beyond its borders.
None of this bodes well for Iran’s neighbors. Regional concerns, particularly those raised by governments that have already normalized relations with Israel ( such as the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain ) or are thought to be moving in that direction ( Saudi Arabia ), would be less accommodating to an ideologically enthralled Islamic regime in Iran.
In addition, many Arab leaders ‘ political standing has fallen short in the eyes of their supporters in Gaza because of their perceived ineffectiveness.
The string of events that began with the Hamas attacks on Israel on October 7 were not planned by Iran’s leaders. Hamas ‘ actions surprised them just as much as the Israeli intelligence agencies did. However, it is obvious that they are the ones who were affected by the events.
Beyond the Iranian authorities ‘ imagination, the United States and Israel have a huge appeal for Iran’s message of defiance.
Shahram Akbarzadeh serves as the Middle East Studies Forum’s ( MESF ) chair and acting director of Deakin University’s Alfred Deakin Institute for Citizenship and Globalization.
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