From 1979, when Shiite Muslim clerics took power in Iran, the government and its safety machine built up armed militias in the Middle East that became a mainstay of Tehran’s anti-Israel coalition known as the Axis of Tolerance.
In the aftereffects of the October 7, 2023, assault on Israel by Hamas, the empire has come under severe risk. Israel retaliated not merely against Hamas, in the now-devastated Gaza Strip, but also against Hezbollah, in Lebanon, which took up the Israeli cause by launching rockets into Israel the next day, October 8, 2023.
After weeks of tit-for-tat flying markets, the Israelis stepped up their detonations of southern Lebanon and Beirut. It has moved three groups of troops to the border in preparation for a floor unpleasant.
Houthi rebels in Yemen, a relative newcomer to the Axis, harassed professional transport in the Red Sea in support of Hamas. In reply, Israel, the US and the UK have launched aircraft and missiles attacks at Houthi military goals.
Iran itself entered the fray in April 2024, two days after Israel killed, via weapon strike, an Egyptian Military Guard Commander who was visiting Damascus. After weeks trying to stay on the outside, Iran tried to strike back by launching about 300 inadequate missiles into Israel.
But more was to occur. On October 1, 2024, Iran hit Israel with 180 missiles in response to the July killings of Ismail Haniyeh, Hamas’s leading head while he was visiting, and of Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah, killed in late September by a storm of Jewish missiles fired into Beirut. Both were struck down by weapons sent from far.
A anxious Iran feared that it had to reply both attacks, watchers said. Then, there was a chance allies may prevent symbolically spinning around the shaft.
“Simply put, Iran may have calculated that failing to respond would later lead its allied armies to subject their loyalty and commitment, particularly if they perceived that Tehran was unwilling to take the same challenges they were, ” wrote Arman Mahmoudian, a global surveillance scholar and Middle East specialist at the University of South Florida.
Nicole Grajewski, a researcher at Carnegie Endowment’s Nuclear Policy Program , concurred: “Restraint threatened to degrade Iran’s trust among its friends. ”
Concerns over losing its local alliances even prompted Iran to contemplate a deeper deterrent option in case Israeli strikes continue, as they possibly did: full development of its atomic arms program. “Iran may progressively see its nuclear potential as a critical part of its broader safety strategy, ” Grajewski said.
Iran’s safety infrastructure has relied on sub-nuclear equipment. One was the ability of projecting military power beyond its edges through allied proxy – particularly Hezbollah but even Hamas and the Houthis, along with insurgents in Iraq ( to attack US troops ) and in Syria.
In military conditions, this variety of friends provided Iran with “forward protection ” that allowed it to fight Israel without explicitly engaging with its own troops.
The various sub-nuclear tool was the threat to Israel posed by Iran’s typically military missile and drone arsenal that may reach deep in Israel.
The deterrence breakdown alarmed the Iranian government and outraged domestic critics.
In an apparent effort to calm fears of all-out war after the recent strike on Israel, the government announced it had no plan to send Iranian ground forces to help either Hamas or Hezbollah. “There is no need to send extra or volunteer forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran, ” said Nasser Kanaani, Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman, Kanaani said. Both allies “have the capability and strength to defend themselves against the aggression. ”
Its air tools may have been delayed by advice from Washington. American press reports said Biden had advised Iran to take a measured response to Israel’s attacks. The US president and French President Michel Macron had devised a two-week ceasefire plan that was supposed to defuse the war in Lebanon.
Netanyahu rejected the proposal, prompting outraged critics to criticize President Masoud Pezeshkian for betraying allies in the name of currying favor with the West.
“Iran’s delay in responding to the assassination of martyr Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, while the world was waiting for Iran’s response, made the Zionist regime dare to assassinate Sayed Hassan Nasrallah as well, ” conservative politician Ali Motahari wrote on X ( formerly Twitter ). “We were tricked by America, which repeatedly sent messages saying that we will establish a ceasefire. ”
The government is under fire for ostensibly prioritizing renewed nuclear weapons diplomacy with the US over care for the well-being of Iran’s allies. Israel’s assassination of Haniyeh took place while he was visiting Tehran for the inauguration of Pezeshkian, who was elected in July.
The Iranian government also seems intent on presenting itself as an innocent bystander in Middle Eastern turmoil. In a letter to the United Nations, Iran’s diplomatic envoys in New York described their country ’s retaliation as a “legal, rational, and legitimate response ” to Israel’s “terrorist acts. ” However, the note added that, if Israel should strike back, “a subsequent and crushing response will ensue. ”
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was unmoved by any sign of moderation or threats from Iran. More attacks are on the way, he indicated. “Iran made a big mistake tonight and it will pay for it, ” he said in a video message the day after Iran’s October 1 attack. “The regime in Iran does not understand our determination to defend ourselves and our determination to retaliate against our enemies. They will understand. ”
Possible targets include Iran’s oil industry and its nuclear facilities, which are key to Tehran’s potential development of atomic weaponry.
Attacks on both would present political problems of for Biden. Last weekend he said that communications between Israel and the US about military targeting had taken place. Biden said he had discussed whether crippling oil production was in order, but he waffled on where he came out on the question. In response to a reporter’s question, he said, “ I think that would be a little … Anyway. ”
The nuclear issue also presents a quandary. Biden inherited the frustration of President Barack Obama, whose nuclear control deal with Iran was canceled by Obama’s successor Donald Trump. It would be difficult in the American election season for Biden, who has blamed Iran for Middle Eastern turmoil, to now inhibit Israel from keeping atomic bombs out of Iranian hands.
Instead, Biden shuffled talk of hitting nuclear facilities to anonymous spokesmen. Officials who spoke beneath a cloak of anonymity said Biden advised Netanyahu to take a “measured approach ” short of destroying nuclear facilities.
Trump, who is running to replace Biden in the November 5 election, seized on Biden’s hesitation as a sign of weakness. Iran’s nuclear facilities should be a target, he said on Sunday “Is n’t that what you’re supposed to hit? ” Trump said. “Hit the nuclear first and worry about the rest later. ”
Vice President Kamala Harris, who was chosen by Biden’s Democratic Party to replace him in the vote, also addressed the issue during a television interview that also aired Sunday. “ What we need to do is to ensure that Iran never achieves the ability to be a nuclear power, ” she said. “That is one of my highest priorities. ”
She did n’t indicate what the US – or Israel – should do about it. “I’m not going to talk about hypotheticals at this moment, ” she said.