Ebrahim Raisi, leader of Iran, was reported dead on May 19, 2024 when his plane crashed, and his passing will be a serious blast to the country’s conventional leadership.
While search and rescue team – hampered by rains, fog, forests and mountains – searched for aircraft, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said the nation” if beg” for Raisi.
As an expert on Iran’s local politicians and foreign policy, I think Tehran’s problem does go beyond the crash’s possible mortal tragedy. The change that it will force will have significant effects on an Egyptian state that is consumed by regional and international conflict and local unrest.
Since the Persian Revolution of 1979, Raisi has served as Khamenei’s top adviser and protégé. As highest head, Khamenei holds the position of supreme authority in the Islamic Republic.
Prior to taking office as president in 2021, Raisi held various positions in the court system that the supreme chief ruled over. He served on the commission that sentenced hundreds of political prisoners to death in 1988 as a attorney and at the conclusion of the Iran-Iraq War.
He was given the nickname” Butcher of Tehran” after the deaths, which led to sanctions from the United States and condemnation from the UN and other international human rights organizations.
Since 2006, Raisi served on the Council of Professionals, a system that chooses and supervises the highest leader. And despite being seen as lacking personality and beauty, it was thought that Raisi, 63, was being groomed to achieve the 85- year- ancient Khamenei as high leader.
Checkered local report
Domestically, Raisi’s president was both the cause and effect of a legality issue and cultural conflict for the program.
After receiving numerous prospect disqualifications from the Guardian Council, which reviews prospects, and having a generally low voter turnout of less than 50 %, he dubiously won the 2021 presidential vote.
Raisi and his administration reinvigorated the ethics authorities and put religious restrictions on world to appease his liberal base. Women, Life, Freedom protests were sparked by Mahsa Amini’s dying in police custody in 2022 as a result of this plan.
The presentations proved to be the largest and longest in the Islamic Republic’s almost 50- time past. They even resulted in extraordinary state repression, with over 500 activists killed and lots more hurt, disappeared and detained.
Raisi resisted the limitations and crackdowns throughout the protests, showing his devotion to the ruling party and the traditional elites.
However, under Raisi, Iran’s business continued to suffer due to a mixture of federal incompetence and problem, along with U. S. sanctions that have intensified in response to Tehran’s regional repression and international provocations.
Confrontation over rapprochement
Under Raisi’s presidency, there were changes in Iran’s regional and international roles.
As supreme leader, Khamenei has the final say on foreign policy. However, Raisi presided over a state that continued on the verge of conflict with its allies, particularly the United States and Israel.
Tehran has veered further away from any notion of rapprochement with the West, whether it is as a result of a choice or a fecundity.
Under Raisi, Iran has been reluctant to resume the nuclear deal because of increased US sanctions. Instead, Iran has increased uranium enrichment, blocked international inspectors, and become a nuclear threshold state.
Raisi also continued the” Look to the East” policy of his predecessor, Hassan Rouhani. He and his government sought further rapprochement with China to accomplish this. By facilitating a diplomatic agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia in March 2023 and importing Iranian oil, Beijing has provided an economic lifeline.
Meanwhile, under Raisi’s presidency, Iran continued to serve as an ally and funder of anti- US and anti- West conflicts, delivering combat drones to Russia for use in Ukraine and providing arms to various regional proxies in the Middle East.
Under Khamenei and Raisi’s leadership, Iran has maintained a delicate balance between allowing its regional proxies to counter Israel and the United States and avoiding a direct confrontation with both nations, who are traditionally superior foes, since the war started on October 7, 2023.
In retaliation for a strike on Iran’s consulate in Damascus, the Islamic Republic launched drones and missiles directly at Israel in April, breaking the previous pattern in that country.
Raisi has long supported the Iranian regime in an effort to further distance itself from the internationally recognized order and form alliances with nations that are similarly hostile to the West, despite not being directly in charge of foreign policy.
Raisi and his team were returning from a ceremony to inaugurate the dam in the nearby Azerbaijan at the time of the helicopter crash. After taking a ambiguous, if not antagonistic, position in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, which ended in a convincing victory for Azerbaijan in late 2023, Iran presumably wanted to enmity itself with Azerbaijan.
What a change in the role of president might mean
In Raisi, Supreme Leader Khamenei had a longtime loyalist, regime insider and a prospective successor.
Under the Iranian constitution, any death of a president results in the first vice president serving as interim president. Mohammad Mokhber, a politician with a lot of the same qualities as Raisi and who has been a prominent member of the Iran team in the negotiations over weapons deals with Moscow, would be the victim.
Within 50 days, Iran would also need to hold presidential elections. Who would the supreme leader choose as a potential successor and future president remains to be seen. Given the internal and external pressure they are under, it is all but certain that Tehran’s conservatives will continue to march the wagons.
Domestically, this could take the form of greater state repression and election manipulation. I think it could mean strengthening ties with aspiring allies and pursuing a calculated confrontation against traditional adversaries, both regionally and internationally.
Eric Lob is associate professor of politics and international relations, Florida International University
This article was republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.