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ReutersAccording to experts, US mediators helped the nuclear-armed rivals reclaim their position behind the scenes, along with political backchannels and provincial players.
India and Pakistan were exchange accusations of new violations shortly after the peace agreement, which highlights its weakness.
Pakistan’s causes allegedly showed “repeated violations,” while India accused Pakistan of repeating them while insisting that it remained committed to the peace.
India and Pakistan were edging closer to a full-fledged fight before Trump’s ceasefire announcement, which some feared might turn out to be.
India launched air strikes inside Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir following a deadly violent assault last month that left 26 visitors dead. This led to weeks of airstrikes, weaponry duels, and accusations on both sides of missile attacks on each other’s airbases.
Each nation claimed to have caused significant damage while thwarting the other’s problems, which escalated quickly.
Getty ImagesThe call made by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio to Pakistani Army Chief Asim Munir on May 9th, according to Tanvi Madan, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington, “might have been the important place,” according to Tanvi Madan, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington DC.
” There’s still a lot to be learned about the roles of various international actors, but it’s obvious over the past three days that at least three countries are working to de-escalate, including the UK and Saudi Arabia,” she says.
Ishaq Dar, the country’s foreign minister, reported to Pakistani media that” three dozen countries” were involved in the diplomacy, including the US, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey.
” One question is whether this call might have come sooner, right after the initial Indian strikes, when Pakistan was already claiming some losses from India and having an off-ramp available,” Madan asks.
Not the first time that US mediation has helped to resolve an India-Pakistan conflict has been involved.
Former US secretary of state Mike Pompeo claimed in his memoir that he was awakened to speak with an unnamed” Indian counterpart” who feared Pakistan was preparing nuclear weapons during the 2019 standoff.
ReutersAjay Bisaria, a former Indian High Commissioner to Pakistan, wrote in a later article that Pompeo exaggerated both the US’s role in calming the conflict and the potential for nuclear escalation.
Diplomats contend that there is no denying that the US helped to ease the current crisis.
” The US was the most important external player. Pompeo once asserted that they had averted a nuclear war. They may have played the most of the diplomatic role, perhaps strengthening Delhi’s positions in Islamabad, Mr. Bisaria told the BBC on Saturday.
However, the US initially appeared to be remarkably standoffish.
US Vice President JD Vance stated on Thursday that the US was not going to enter a war that was “fundamentally none of our business” as tensions grew.
” We can’t control these nations, though. India has some issues with Pakistan, and America can’t let them lay down their weapons. We can’t instruct Pakistanis to lay down their weapons. And so we’re going to keep trying this through diplomatic channels, he said in an interview with a television station.
In the meantime, President Trump stated earlier this week:” I know both]leaders of India and Pakistan very well, and I want to see them work it out.” I want them to stop, and I’m hoping they can do so soon.
Getty ImagesThis appeared to be the only difference from previous times, according to Ejaz Haider, a Lahore-based defense analyst, who spoke to the BBC.
The American role was a continuation of previous patterns, but with one notable difference: this time, they initially stayed silent, watching the crisis unfold, rather than jumping in right away. They only intervened when they learned how it was going, according to Mr. Haider, who spoke to the BBC.
Experts in Pakistan claim that as the escalation cycle got worse, Pakistan “dual signals” retaliated militarily by announcing a meeting of the National Command Authority (NCA ) meeting, a clear reminder of the nuclear overhang.
The NCA oversees Pakistan’s nuclear weapons and makes operational decisions.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio intervened at this time.
” The US was unavoidable. Without Secretary Rubio’s efforts, this outcome would not have been possible,” said Ashley J. Tellis, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, to the BBC.
Washington’s growing ties with Delhi also helped.
The US administration gained diplomatic leverage as a result of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s personal relationship with Trump, as well as the US’s wider strategic and economic stakes.
Indian diplomats note three crucial peace events that occurred this time, similar to those that occurred after Pulwama-Balakot in 2019.
- US and UK pressure
- Saudi mediation, with visits to both capitals by the junior foreign minister.
- The two national security advisors ( NSAs ) communicate directly between India and Pakistan.
The US eventually emerged as the unavoidable mediator between South Asia’s nuclear rivals, despite shifting global priorities and a initially aloof position.
Experts believe the US’s role as a crisis manager is still just as crucial and complicated as ever, whether it is overstated by its own officials or underrepresented by Delhi and Islamabad.
However, doubts still exist regarding the viability of the ceasefire following Saturday’s events, with some Indian media reporting that senior military officials of the two nations reportedly brokered it, not the US.
” This ceasefire is undoubtedly fragile,” he declared. It occurred very quickly, amid sky-high tensions. According to Michael Kugelman, a foreign policy analyst, the Indians appear to have interpreted it differently than the US and Pakistan.
The agreement may not have the necessary assurances and guarantees one would require at such a tense moment because it was put together so hastily.