While the war in Ukraine continues to rage, several are already looking ahead to what is going to happen when the weapons fall silent as well as the construction work starts.
Within July, Ukraine’s excellent minister estimated that will rebuilding the country’s devastated cities, cities and infrastructure would cost US$750 billion .
Amid the particular destruction has come opportunity for others, and Chicken is the frontrunner to get one of the big monetary winners of the conflict, especially if it handles to preserve good connections with both Moscow and Kiev.
Since Russia launched its so-called specific military operation in Ukraine, Turkey has attempted to portray itself as a mediator within the conflict.
As a result of the Turkey-brokered talks in Turki in March, The ussr withdrew its soldiers from around Kiev and the northeastern regions of Chernihiv and Sumy. In July in Istanbul, representatives of Russia, Ukraine and Turkey signed a grain offer that allowed Ukraine in order to stabilize its spending budget by exporting millions of tons of cereal via the Black Sea.
The agreement also had a positive impact on the Turkish economy, given that Ankara now is able to purchase grain from Ukraine and Russia at lower costs .
Chicken now aims to enhance its positions within the Black Sea area. According to a memorandum of understanding authorized by Turkish Business Minister Mehmet Mus and Ukrainian Facilities Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov in Lviv on August 18, Turkey will play an important function in the reconstruction from the country.
Turkish companies are expected to rebuild the bridge in the village of Romanivka that connects Bucha and Irpin with Kiev.
Such action could send out a powerful and representational message: If the renovation takes place before the war officially ends, at least before Moscow plus Kiev sign a ceasefire agreement, it would be a clear sign that will Russia has quit plans to seize the Ukrainian capital.
Moreover, if the Turkish corporation Baykar is really creating a drone factory within Ukraine, as Ukrainian ambassador to Turkey Vasyl Bodnar suggests , it really is yet another indication that Ankara knows something which the rest of the world will not.
It really is improbable that Turkey would start such an expensive project if it had not received guarantees from Moscow that the plant would not be a target for the Russian military.
Ankara is quite aware that its army cooperation with Ukraine will not affect relationships with the Kremlin. The actual fact Russia has not attemptedto prevent Turkey from selling Bayraktar drones to Ukraine completely illustrates that Ankara has strong leverage over Moscow.
Isolated in the West, Russia is using Turkey as a transportation hub and is actively increasing its economic cooperation with Ankara. Under the current geopolitical circumstances, the Kremlin will have to turn the blind eye in order to almost every Turkish actions in Ukraine.
It is simply no secret that Turkey sees Crimea – a region under Ruskies control, although internationally still recognized as a part of Ukraine – as its own zone associated with influence.
Historically, the questioned peninsula spent lengthier as a protectorate from the Ottoman Empire than as part of the Russian Disposition or Soviet Union. It is, therefore , unsurprising that Ankara seeks to position itself being a patron of the Crimean Tatars – the ethnic group local to the peninsula.
Turkish authorities possess recently started issuing long-term residence enables to Crimean Tatars, who are Turkic-speaking Muslims.
Based on Turkish laws, just foreigners who have been living in the country continuously just for eight years can acquire a long-term residence permit. However , Meskhetian Turks, Uighurs, cultural Turks from Bulgaria and Greece, and today the Crimean Tatars are exempt with this.
Ankara is probably aiming to integrate the Crimean Tatars into Turkish community, but at the same time, Turkey is looking to increase its influence among the Crimean Tatars still living in Crimea.
Some Crimean Tatar political analysts, however , argue that, at this point, the particular Turkish presence within Crimea is minimal. Prior to the Russian annexation of the peninsula in 2014, Turkish impact in the region was visible in various areas, from business to religion. But since seizing the territory, Russia does not seem to have permitted its Turkish partners to take root in Crimea.
Although Ukraine rebuilding its sovereignty over Crimea seems quite a distance off, the very fact that Kiev has began actively stunning Russian positions in the region suggests that, sooner or later, Crimean cities and cities could suffer heavy harm.
Following the war, if Ukraine manages to rekindle Crimea, the territory – just like many other Ukrainian regions – will need extensive renovation. With its historic hyperlinks there, Turkey would be very interested in playing a crucial role in rebuilding on the peninsula.
In the meantime, Ankara will seek aid good ties with Moscow and Kiev, and to increase its role as a mediator. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan hopes to revive the negotiations between Russia plus Ukraine based on the parameters that were formed within Istanbul in 03.
However , Kiev is not really willing to negotiate till Russian troops pull away from all Ukrainian territories, including Crimea.
Only after Russia is defeated in Ukraine or even driven from most of the territory it grabbed can Erdogan completely take the prize because the real winner from the Ukraine war.
With small sign of such an outcome at this stage, Turkey will continue what it has been doing: supporting Ukraine while maintaining relatively good relations along with Russia. This way, once the time is right, European businesses will be at the fore when it comes to rebuilding what Russia destroyed.
This post was provided by Syndication Bureau , which holds copyright. Follow Nikola Mikovic on Tweets @nikola_mikovic .