Think Donald Trump can’t become president after his second word is up in January 2029? Consider afterwards.
When President-elect Donald Trump met with congressional Republicans shortly after his November 2024 election victory, he floated the idea of another term: “ I suspect I won’t be running again unless you say, ‘ He’s so good we’ve got to figure something else out. ’ ”
At first glance, this seems like an apparent prank. The 22nd Amendment to the Constitution is evident that Trump can’t been elected again. The words of the article states:
“No man shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice, and no man who has held the office of President, or acted as President, for more than two decades of a name to which some other person was elected President shall be elected to the office of the President more than once. ”
That amendment was passed in response to Franklin Roosevelt’s four elections to the president. Since George Washington had stepped down at the end of his next word, no leader had sought a second word, much less a third. The act was evidently meant to prevent leaders from serving more than two terms in office.
Because Trump has been elected leader twice now, the ordinary language of the article bars him from being elected a second time. Some have argued that since Trump’s words were nonconsecutive, the article does n’t use to him. But the article makes no distinction between subsequent and nonconsecutive terms in office.
Though the 22nd Amendment prohibits Trump from being elected chairman again, it does not prevent him from serving as president beyond Jan. 20, 2029. The reason for this is that the 22nd Amendment only prohibits someone from being “elected ” more than twice. It says nothing about one becoming president in some other means than being elected to the office.
Skirting the laws
There are a few possible alternative situations. Under typical circumstances, they would be next to impossible. But Donald Trump has never been a regular leader.
On topic after matter, Trump has pushed the outer parameters of political power. Most important, he has already shown his eagerness to stretch or actually break the law to stay in business. And while Trump claims he’s only joking when he floats the idea of a third term, he has a long history of using “jokes ” as a way of floating trial balloons.
However, once he leaves business, Trump could once again face the possibility of criminal prosecution and perhaps prison time, further motivating him to stay in power. As Trump’s next word advances, don’t be surprised if American hear more about how he may try to stay in business. Here is what the Constitution says about that possibility.
Nine citizens have served as president without first being elected to that business. John Tyler, Millard Fillmore, Andrew Johnson, Chester Arthur, Theodore Roosevelt, Calvin Coolidge, Harry Truman, Lyndon Johnson and Gerald Ford were all vice president who stepped into the office when their forebears either died or resigned.
The 22nd Amendment does no bar a term-limited senator from being elected vice president. On the other hand, the 12th Amendment does position that “no people lawfully unsuitable to the office of the President shall be eligible to that of the Vice-President of the United States. ”
It’s not clear whether this limitation applies to a two-term leader who is unsuitable for a second term because of the 22nd Amendment – or whether it only imposes on the vice president the Constitution’s different criteria for political eligibility, namely that they be a natural-born citizen of the United States, at least 35 years of age and have lived in the US for at least 14 years.
That issue would have to be decided by the US Supreme Court. If the justices decide in Trump’s prefer – as they have just on questions regarding the 14th Amendment’s rebellion section and political immunity – then the 2024 ticket of Trump-Vance could become the 2028 Vance-Trump ticket. If elected, Vance was therefore retire, making Trump leader afterwards.
But Vance would not even have to retire in order for a Vice President Trump to exercise the power of the administration. The 25th Amendment to the Constitution declares that if a leader declares that “he is unable to transfer the rights and responsibilities of the company … such rights and obligations may be discharged by the Vice President as Acting President. ”
In fact, the US has had three such acting presidents – George H W Bush, Dick Cheney and Kamala Harris. All of them held presidential power for a brief period when the sitting president underwent anesthesia during medical procedures; Cheney did it twice.
In this scenario, shortly after taking office on January 20, 2029, President Vance could invoke the 25th Amendment by notifying the speaker of the House and the president pro tempore of the Senate that he is unable to discharge the duties of president. He would not need to give any reason or proof of this incapacity.
Vice President Trump would then become acting president and assume the powers of the presidency until such time as President Vance issued a new notification indicating that he was able to resume his duties as president.
‘Tandemocracy’
But exercising the power of the presidency does n’t even necessarily require being president or acting president.
Trump has repeatedly expressed his admiration for autocratic Russian President Vladimir Putin, so he might want to follow the example of the Medvedev-Putin “tandemocracy. ”
In 2008, term limits in the Russian constitution prevented Putin from running for president after two consecutive terms. Instead, he selected a loyal subordinate, Dmitry Medvedev, to run for president.
When elected, Medvedev appointed Putin as his prime minister. By most accounts, Putin remained firmly in power and made most of the important decisions. Following this example, a future Republican president could appoint Trump to an executive branch position from which he could still exercise power.
In 2012, Putin was able to run for president again, and he and Medvedev once again swapped roles. Since then, Putin has succeeded in amending the Russian Constitution to effectively allow him to remain president for the rest of his life.
Using a figurehead
Then again, Trump might just want to avoid all of these legal subterfuges by following the example of George and Lurleen Wallace. In 1966, the Alabama Constitution prevented Wallace from running for a third consecutive term as governor.
Still immensely popular and unwilling to give up power, Wallace chose to have his wife, Lurleen, run for governor. It was clear from the beginning that Lurleen was just a figurehead for George, who promised to be an adviser to his wife, at a salary of US$ 1 a year.
The campaign’s slogan of “Two Governors, One Cause, ” made it clear that a vote for Lurleen was really a vote for George. Lurleen won in a landslide.
According to one account of her time in office, the Wallaces had “something of a Queen-Prime Minister relationship: Mrs. Wallace handles the ceremonial and formal duties of state. Mr. Wallace draws the grand outlines of state policy and sees that it is carried out. ”
Trump’s wife was not born a US citizen and therefore is n’t eligible to be president. But as the head of the Republican Party, Trump could ensure that the next GOP presidential candidate was a member of his family or some other person who would be absolutely loyal and obedient to him.
If that person went on to win the White House in 2028, Trump could serve as an unofficial adviser, allowing him to continue to wield the power of the presidency without the actual title.
Philip Klinkner is James S Sherman professor of government, Hamilton College
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.