Everything incredibly strange was happening in Israel 6, 000 miles away as delegates gathered in Chicago for the Democratic National Convention’s opening ceremony on August 19th.
In Tel Aviv, the US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, declared that Israel had accepted a “bridging request” to move towards a stalemate. He argued that the Hamas authority in Gaza had the final say. Even as he spoke, Hamas and the Israeli government officials claimed there had n’t been any movement during the Qatar peace talks.
This is far from amazing, given that only three days before, Hamas’s key mediator and democratic leader, Ismail Haniyeh, had been assassinated in Tehran, almost surely by Israel.
Therefore, when Israel’s diplomats told their prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, on August 18 that they needed some room to maneuver – and that after decades of negotiations, a package based on his opportunities could not be agreed – he apparently refused to budge.
So, as Blinken claimed that a deal was in sight, Netanyahu was telling Hamas ‘ hostage-happy families that he was” not sure there will be a deal” as he made his statement.
The Hostage People Forum observed that” the prime minister’s notes are effectively a undermining of the prisoner package. Netanyahu wo n’t face]the fact ] that abandoning the hostages leads to their being murdered in captivity”.
However, 6, 000 km away outside the United Center in Chicago, a group of pro-Palestine activists called for an ending to the Jewish rude, cursing the person they call” Murder Joe” Biden.
Outside, Democratic guests were honoring the cheerful US leader. As he accepted his party’s adulation, Biden made a charter which has proved to be false:” A few days ago, I put forth a plan that brought us closer to that goal]of peace ] than we’ve been since October 7th”.
On the subject of the Gaza issue, Biden has presided over a wildly dissented Democratic Party. But he has long been a strong supporter of Israel, and he traveled to Tel Aviv shortly after the attacks to show his support for Netanyahu, who he bear-hugged, swearing that” we will not allow you always be only as long as the United States stands – and we will have long.”
Overcoming Gaza
Biden’s son at the top of the Democratic ticket, Kamala Harris, has taken a different technique to Gaza and the future of Israel and Palestine, including being more explicit in her needs for a peace. As she activities for the White House between now and November, how she will address the groups in her party regarding the subject.
The general consensus among some researchers was that Israel-Gaza may value the Democrats the vote before Biden resigned from the competition in July. In the crucial swing state of Michigan, there are actually 211, 405 Muslim Americans – with some projections of up to 500, 000. That party’s seats may be significant, given the ratio in favor of Trump of , less than 11, 000 , in the 2016 poll and only over , 150, 000 in favor of Biden in 2020.
However, on July 21, Harris took Biden’s place. Within a few days, a polling gap of between three and seven percentage points in Michigan transformed into a gain of between three and four percentage points. This change has not shown any signs of reversing itself.
Beyond Michigan, Harris has been influencing young voters who had previously felt alienated by Biden’s position in the Middle East. Some of this may be due to Harris ‘s , differing views on the issue.
This spring, while not making a clear break from the administration’s support of Israel, she began emphasizing the welfare of Gaza’s civilians, who– she said – must be protected both from Israel’s attacks and the humanitarian crisis they have caused.
Harris made a note of her own in the beginning of April when she made a comment about Netanyahu and Biden:
We will make sure that Israel is never left without the ability to defend itself. At the same time, if there are not changes to their approach, it’s very likely we’re going to change our approach.
Harris stopped her speech and addressed her audience’s concerns while campaigning in Arizona on August 9. ” I have been clear”, she told them. ” Now is the time to negotiate a ceasefire and execute the hostage deal.”
Competing realities
Some pro-Palestine activists may not agree with Harris ‘ statement, but the Democratic Party’s campaign’s general idea is that the majority of potential voters will have issues beyond Gaza.
And the pro-Palestinian protestors have been nothing more than a ripple against the wave of unity inside the United Center, with the enthusiastic acclamation of Biden and the enthusiastic applause for Harris.
So, if the tide is turning, it does not appear to be because of Gaza. In contrast, Harris and her well-known vice-presidential pick, Tim Walz, are now in play in five” swing states” that were previously thought to be crucial to the race, as well as other states that have appeared to have lost to Trump under Biden’s control.
In Arizona and North Carolina, Harris has reclaimed up to eight points from deficits. She has erased Trump‘s advantage in Nevada, and closed to within one or two points in Georgia.
At the Democratic convention, Harris fired up the crowd:” This November, we will come together and declare with one voice, as one people: we are moving forward”. She led them in a call and response:” When we fight, we win”.
The next day, in Gaza, an Israeli airstrike on a school serving as a shelter for civilians killed 12 people.
There are three realities amid the conceit of a “ceasefire”: Netanyahu is ineligible, facing an early election, and a potential bribery trial if the war ends. Harris can prevail, regardless of whether one is reached. And without one, Gaza’s civilians will continue to perish.
Scott Lucas is professor of international politics, Clinton Institute, University College Dublin
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