I once received some wise counsel from a foreign writer,” Look where everyone else isn’t looking ,” again when the phrase had meaning. Similar wise counsel was given by a Chinese general:” Look at the full map.” When observing current affairs and unrest in the & nbsp, Middle East, it is important to keep these in mind. & nbsp,
The & nbsp, Israel–Hamas, and the war, which could easily intensify, are the current focus. Ukraine & nbsp is no longer the center of attention, but it still exists. Yet the United States, a superpower, can solve these two fights, even though it hasn’t already instantly participated in the preventing. & nbsp,
However, trouble can easily flare up elsewhere on short notice, with the & nbsp, Indo-Pacific, being the front-runner.
Unsurprisingly, China pays attention to the entire image in an effort to advance its pursuits. Beijing may see an option in its immediate area, with Taiwan in certain, given the Americans’ involvement in the Middle East and Ukraine. & nbsp,
Overstretched US Military
The US military‘s The & nbsp has not forgotten about the Indo-Pacific and is currently on the scene. However, it can only manage a certain number of wars at once. & nbsp,
In fact, it hasn’t been able to fight two big wars simultaneously( as is required by law ) for a number of decades.
Ukraine currently caused too much trouble and depleted assets. & nbsp, Now include a conflict between Israel and Hamas that could involve Iran and Hezbollah. This depletes the limited US government and nbsp resources and interest, both of which are already extremely overextended. & nbsp,
Since the Obama administration announced the” Asia Pivot” in 2011, there has been a lot of discussion about bolstering military troops in the Asia-Pacific region. However, this has never actually occurred, or at least not on the required or imagined range.
However, there is something about Europe, the Middle East, or pretty much anywhere that isn’t the Indo-Pacific that draws attention and diverts US military leaders and policymakers.
Therefore, it will be much more difficult to support US troops in the Asia-Pacific now that the Middle East has heated up once more( on top of Ukraine ). Additionally, the Indo-Pacific theatre will receive even less consideration in terms of hardware, manpower, and yet brainpower if US forces engage in direct combat in the Middle East.
However, doesn’t allies like Japan, Australia, South Korea, and the NBPsp make up the difference? Yes, theoretically. Not even close in reality.
& nbsp, The People’s Republic of China can” do the math.”
The Political Perspective
There is a social component to all of this as well. Taiwan may be given a lower priority than the Biden administration( or any administration ) because they can only concentrate on so many issues. & nbsp,
For starters, Israel receives more overt and covert aid in the United States than Taiwan does. Taiwan doesn’t have as many social supporters, nbsp. ( Consider votes and funding. ) & nbsp,
And at least a lot more Americans are aware of Israel and recognize its significance. This is true despite the emergence of a ferocious anti-Jewish electorate in Congress and the United States.
Some Americans have a thorough understanding of Taiwan. For an administration to sell the idea of risking nuclear war for” Taiwan ,” it takes a lot of work and political will.
If Team Biden is stranded in Ukraine and the Middle East, will it still make the effort? That’s whoever can imagine.
China Observes
China is probably assessing the US’s reaction to the Israel-Hamas conflict in order to predict how good it will be to respond to an attack or significant pressure on Taiwan.
However, the verdict is still out. The Biden presidency is currently primarily in favor of Israel. There are signs that it wants Israel to lift its punches, though. And now that Israeli troops have entered Gaza, hold off for a few days. If Team Biden informs the Israelis that they have” defended themselves sufficiently” and that a ceasefire or other so-called humanitarian pauses are necessary to allow Hamas to get its breath, we’ll watch to view.
If so, Xi Jinping may make a note of it.
However, Xi will also recall the initial response of the Biden administration to the October 7 Hamas murders. It was unclear and appeared to hold Israel and Hamas extremely accountable.
When compared to a Taiwanese situation, one might picture the State Department tweeting hours after the People’s Liberation Army has pounded Taiwan: & nbsp,
” Taiwan, couldn’t say anything.” Everything is resolved by murder.
Well, that’ll be fine if Beijing believes that an attack on Taiwan will lead to some tut – tutting and faux outrage and then a move to double down on diplomacy. And it won’t matter if it has to delay a few weeks while Washington pretends to be trying to help Taiwan before releasing it.
Why Did We Place Iran There?
Beijing must also be thinking about what transpired prior to the Hamas problems. & nbsp,
I’m especially referring to the interactions between the Biden administration and Iran‘s nbsp. loosing the restrictions and giving the US$ 6 billion. Overall, President Obama’s efforts to satisfy, if not improve, the Iranian regime are really continuing. & nbsp,
After what the Iranians have done to you and your objectives for years, China may reasonably conclude that” the sky is the restriction in what you’ll do for us after we take Taiwan.”
Team Biden was eager to see nothing and continues to be adamant that Iran has no direct involvement in Hamas’ problems. Despite having an annual budget of$ 80 billion and Hamas publicly thanking Iran for its assistance, the US intelligence community appears to be in the bag as well. They are unable to come to a conclusion on Iran and Hamas.
There is even more cause to question American resolve when you consider the Biden administration’s sluggish, if not frightened, response to Persian proxies’ continuing attacks on US forces in Syria, Iraq, and Beijing.
What are the repercussions for Chinese help of Iran in the form of fuel purchases and overt social support? Nothing. In fact, the Pentagon and the Biden administration are sacrificing themselves to work with the PRC and” steady” relationships.
Concerning Taiwan
Additionally, there are other locations on the map where China’s allies simply need to launch menacing actions that will thin out the Americans even more and intensify their focus on Taiwan.
Consider the Baltic States, the Persian Gulf, Cuba, and Venezuela, as well as the Korean Peninsula. Additionally, some” DC-sniper” fifth-columnist activities across the US will succeed.
The idea that the United States do not experience a serious foe again and the” peace dividend” and” the end of history” are now being paid for by the country.
And the other complimentary countries made a mistake by relying on Americans to handle everything. & nbsp,
I’m speaking to you about every nation in Europe, including Tokyo, Seoul, Taipei, Canberra, Ottawa, and Wellington. & nbsp,
How terrible are points really? & nbsp,
I recently learned from an experienced man who has been involved in US federal security concerns since the 1960s:
When Beijing views the situation objectively, they must see us in nearly complete chaos with the” Taiwans” dozing off. Tokyo continues to dither as usual. The ROKs [ South Koreans ] are awake, but in the grand scheme of things, they would die valiantly but still die. The Phils [ the Filipinos ], of all people, seem to be agitated against them [ China ]. Given the situation, I find it difficult to believe that the” If not now, when”? Accents aren’t getting louder over there in Beijing.
Former US minister and retired US Marine officer Grant Newsham. When China Attacks: A Warning To America is the book & nbsp by him. This post, which was first released by JAPAN Forward, is being reprinted with authorization.