Donald Trump did make his four-year foreign policy statement when he comes back to the White House.
US citizens have chosen a president who adheres to an” America First” process, where US interests come initially, and is expected to be more separatist than the current president, Joe Biden.
While some unusual officials, including Hungarian Prime Minister , Viktor Orban , and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, may welcome a second Trump administration, the same cannot be said about Chinese President Xi Jinping.
A Trump presidency back in the White House is unlikely to be great news for China, which has had worsening ties with the US since Trump’s first president.
China’s economic difficulties
In July 2018, Trump fought a never-before-seen trade war with the second-largest economy in the world and imposed tariffs that ranged from 25 % to 25 % on Chinese imports into the US.
But during his 2024 plan remarks, Trump suggested that US tariffs on Chinese products could go as high as 60 % or more.
China’s economy is in a slump, with slumping house prices, great local authorities debt and higher youth unemployment. More tariffs might ruin China’s economic treatment strategy, which depends greatly on exports.
However, a second Trump administration may not be the only thing Beijing worries about. China’s ambitions to lead the world Artificial market by 2030 are likely to be constrained by a Trump-led US, which would likely restrict the flow of engineering from the US or Europe to China.
The fresh US management may also use an economic decoupling approach to “derisk” itself from Chinese coverage. By shifting its supply chain somewhere, this may aim to reduce US dependence on China and stifle US investment there.
While Joe Biden’s prior high tariffs certainly strained relations between Trump and Beijing, the Russia-Ukraine war is another factor that severely damaged Sino-US relations. Beijing has threatened to sue China for aiding Russia in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and has accused it of supporting Moscow.
Luckily for Russia, a next Trump administration may turn the tide in Moscow’s pursuit. The transfer of Ukranian property that is already occupied by Russia might be included in a Trump-negotiated peace agreement. Trump may also slash or lift sanctions against Russia because the newly elected president-elect has” no passion for punishment.”
Beijing wants a strong alliance in Russia to counteract a world order led by the US and prevent Russia from focusing its attention on Ukraine in the event that Russia apparently fails to accept its conquest of Ukraine. But as the “dealmaker-in-chief” and leading proponent of an” America First” mission, what does Trump stand to gain from helping Russia?
Second, because Russia has grown increasingly dependent on China, Beijing’s effect in Russia could be undermined by helping it overcome its diplomatic and economic problems. Secondly, as a Russian-backed Iran affects US involvement in the Middle East, a new Trump administration may agent a Russian-Ukrainian peace authority that sees Russia withhold military aid from Iran and the latter’s local friends, such as Hezbollah.
As Iran’s influence in the region diminishes, Washington may open up more solutions tied up in the Middle East and refocus its resources elsewhere, such as China, if Washington so wishes. And that may destroy China’s socioeconomic recovery more.
And what future for Taiwan?
Trump has stated ambiguously whether he would support Taiwan in the event of a Taiwanese war, in contrast to Biden. There are, however, concerns that Trump might break with China and apply Taiwan as a negotiations chip, or even leave the island entirely.
Trump expressed anger over Taiwan’s” stolen” of the US semiconductor industry and claims that the island may pay more for its defence. However, his disagreement with Taiwan is not the main point.
If Beijing invaded Taiwan, Trump has indicated that he may impose tariffs on Chinese goods of up to 20 %. Given China’s financial difficulties and President Xi’s have to , prove , his value as a leader whose prestige and power are  , comparable , to the creator of the People’s Republic of China, Mao Zedong, Xi may consider this a valuable business.
Beijing is likely to form relationships outside of the Western world as China prepares for difficulties brought on by a subsequent Trump presidency. As China lessens its reliance on the West for exports and investments, it may become more involved with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations ( GAL ) and the Gulf Cooperation Council ( GCC).
If the Middle Eastern regime’s aid declines, China may also talk to Iran. After all, more US sources in the Middle East may mean less sources to deal with the ,” Foreign risk”.
One issue that may make Trump concerned about Taiwan coming under Beijing’s manage, even if he does like the US to make more, is that the isle manufactures 60 % of all semiconductors. This product is essential for the global use of AI and electronics.
Elon Musk’s place in Trump’s second term is still a mystery. If Trump wins a second term, Musk would head a government efficiency commission.
What part does Musk play in bridging the Washington-Beijing divide, though, given that his Tesla electric cars are heavily dependent on the Chinese market and that Tesla has a factory there?
Chee Meng Tan is assistant professor of business economics, University of Nottingham
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