The demise of Hamas head Yahya Sinwar, one of the masterminds behind the team’s brutal October 7, 2023 assault on southern Israel, is no question a significant moment in Israel’s year-long war against Hamas.
But is it a turning level? The killing of Sinwar, according to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, would be the “beginning of the end” of the conflict, which has long been a major goal of the Israel Defense Forces ( IDF). However, he made it clear that the battle is still ongoing.
In reality, Benny Gantz, a former defence minister and part of the combat cabinet, said the IDF may continue to operate in Gaza” for years to come”. So, what exactly will be the effect of Sinwar’s dying?
Sinwar’s dying does change at least one element of the battle. He was an classic number, for better or worse, for Palestinians. He appeared to be bringing the battle to Israel. The organization was really growing in popularity now that Sinwar was still intact and Hamas was attacking Israel in Gaza.
In late May, a survey of Palestinians living in the Held Provinces revealed that 40 % of the population had voted in favor of Hamas, a six-point increase over the previous three months. Help for the Palestinian Authority, which controls the West Bank, was about half that.
Sinwar’s destruction changes the experience of Hamas. If Hamas is unable to bring him a leader as powerful as he was, it could be a major turning point.
One of the brands being discussed is , Khaled Mashal, the former head of Hamas ‘ political business, who still remains important in the business.
This situation gives a fresh Hamas head the chance to ask for a ceasefire with Israel and the end to the horrifying situations in which Gazans are living. But there’s still the issue of whether Sinwar’s dying achieves Israel’s war aims.
What would form a triumph for Netanyahu?
The main problem is that Netanyahu’s battle aims have not yet been achieved:
- Hamas ‘ removal as a terrorist organization and threat to Israel is a victory.
- the release of the almost 100 Israeli hostages who are still held there, some of whom may already be dead.
- the return of Hezbollah’s punishment to Lebanon, which would enable the 60 000 Israelis who have been evacuated from north Israel to go home.
Israeli soldiers in Gaza still have some very important issues, despite the shooting of Sinwar as a major step in limiting Hamas ‘ ability to fight the Army there.
Hamas has evolved from a structured fighting army to insurgent setting over the past year, which makes it much harder for its fighters to completely vanish.
The traditional approach to dealing with a rebel power is” clear, hold, and create.” This entails clearing an area of the army, placing troops there to keep the place, and then creating an environment where the enemy is unable to resurrect itself.
Israel can certainly do the” emptying” and “holding”, but has not been able to build an atmosphere in which Hamas can no longer function.
Israeli editors who have been stationed with Israeli forces have made the case that Hamas operatives are returning to areas that the Army had formerly cleared, in part because of the team’s considerable hole system.
If Netanyahu agrees to a peace before Hamas is eliminated as a fighting force, right-wing members of his government have threatened to withdraw from his governing coalition. They think Hamas might use a ceasefire to recover and re-establish itself as a significant risk to Israel.
Netanyahu is also facing growing pressure over the death of the victims at the same time. Their families and supporters will continue the large demonstrations they have been staging in Israel in recent months if there is n’t a ceasefire and negotiations to release them. They are eager to retrieve any captives who may still be alive or the remains of those who have died.
Netanyahu is even considering whether Israel’s planned retaliation against Iran for its missile attack on the Jewish state in earlier October is still being considered.
If Israel does establish a big hit, what does Iran do in answer? Iran’s issue is that it has always relied heavily on a powerful Lebanon to defend itself physically from Israel in Lebanon. And then it seems as though Hezbollah has lost all of its relevance because of recent days of significant deterioration.
US sees a possible off-ramp
Another feature, of course, is where the United States stands on this. The US has made it clear that it views Sinwar’s death as an Israeli-Israeli “off-ramp” in Gaza, allowing it to secure a significant strategic victory and largely agree to a ceasefire.
In recent months, the US has also issued an edict to Israel, saying that if the volume of humanitarian assistance entering Gaza does n’t increase by the end of November, it will stop providing some military assistance to Israel.
The Democrats want the conflict to stop as soon as possible because it divides the party and had entice some voters to not cast ballots in the national vote.
So it’s really essential for the Democratic candidate, Vice President Kamala Harris, that there be a peace as soon as possible. She said as much in her comment:
Hamas is decimated and its administration is eliminated. This circumstance gives us the chance to finally put an end to the conflict in Gaza.
The issue is, of course, that Netanyahu has previously shown that he is willing to reject US orders whenever necessary. And at this point, a peace is not in line with his goals.
The Jewish leader would be more than happy to see Netanyahu returning to the White House, given Republican candidate Donald Trump’s unwavering support for him.
Given all of these variables in mind, Netanyahu is likely to give top priority to keeping his state up.
In this way, he will be more guided by its very right-wing people, such as finance secretary Bezalel Smotrich and secretary of national security Itamar Ben Gvir, than by the US or the hostage’s people.
After Sinwar’s passing, Ben Gvir urged Israel to” proceed with all our strength until total victory,” while Smotrich urged the Army to “increase intense military force in the Strip.”
But, it seems likely that the conflict will continue until Netanyahu may declare Hamas to be a defeated arm. That is what his government is demanding to achieve the administration’s war aims.
Ian Parmeter is exploration professor of Middle East reports, Australian National University
The Conversation has republished this essay under a Creative Commons license. Read the original post.