The US does find peace in Ukraine to keep resources, convince Russia to crack with Beijing, rely on China and prevent escalation. But for Russia, this battle is a novel Afghanistan. ( In the 1980s, the USSR collapsed due to the military effort. ). With an market valued at just a small fraction of the US and EU economies combined, warfare is a monetary disaster for Moscow– whereas it’s moderately considerable for Washington or Brussels.
China either helps Russia ( and bankrupts itself, too ) or takes advantage of Russia, thereby increasing tensions with Russia. Either decision is uncomfortable. Russians do love the Chinese earning from a conflict that hollows them.
So, if the US wants to focus on China, there is no need to look at the other side of the European peninsula, it’s currently happening. The war in Ukraine keeps Beijing on tenterhooks, without Ukraine, and without a break with Russia (unlikely to happen ), China relaxes. Escalation is a threat, but hastening to shut the conflict doesn’t stop it, it exacerbates the problem by showing possible weaknesses or pressure points.
Also, Ukrainians and Europeans don’t want to end the war like this. To jump it means solving a Russian issue and opening bigger Ukrainian and Western problems. The USA loses on every side of the deal. It would be worth it if Russia or China wanted to negotiate, and if Ukrainians and the Union were pushing to give up. But they aren’t.
For President Donald Trump, the method out can be clear, he may say the truth: that Russia isn’t sincere in its negotiations, that the shock has been good to push the EU on a rapid rearmament track, and that he’s willing to compromise if others are ready, too.
The reality, almost
In a famous essay, philosopher of war Edward Luttwak clearly argued:” An uncomfortable truth often overlooked is that although war is a great evil, it does have a wonderful virtue: It may resolve social conflicts and lead to peace. This does happen when all combatants become exhausted or when one wins quickly. Either way, the key is that the battle must remain until a resolution is reached. War brings serenity just after passing a culminating cycle of violence. Expectations of military victory may subside for lodging to become more attractive than more combat”.
To end the war is also a spiritual vital, and not only the Church but somebody may beg for it. Certainly, Ukraine and Europe want to end the war, but “how to stop it” can make a change, particularly at this stage.
Ukraine wants harmony but with promises that Russia won’t come back stronger than ever in five or ten years than previously. Russia may not want harmony —it wants things it does boast of as a success.
We haven’t reached the” culminating step of murder”. There aren’t evidence of an earlier lawsuit unless the US makes pushes the edge it supports to give up. It may pull it, push it, but if the drive is too hard, it can fail to no good finish. Nevertheless, as we saw, there may be perks for the US if the battle continues.
The EU does have its responsibility for the costs of war, Trump is best. And the US does lend all its social assistance to the EU and Ukraine. But, switching off security devices without adequate conversations with friends and without being able to put them in series opens the can of worms we see today: Europeans want a defense equipment unhooked from Washington.
From that, the possibility of a European political union and an army deployed against the other side of the Atlantic becomes not incredible. It’s not just the EU, the UK, Turkey, and even Canada are warming to the idea. This train is leaving the station. America should rush to stop it.
In the medium and long term, it is a much bigger trouble than even the collapse of Russia or an escalation. It could lead to the creation of an actual new political gravity center challenging the present international order. Some in China have been playing for decades with the idea of having Europe as an independent pole against the US. It might be happening now.
Perhaps it’s time to take a breath and consider a change of course. Or, better, let events follow their natural course without pushing too hard. As Taoists would say 顺其自然, follow things as they are. Besides, if America takes a step back and regroups with its allies, Russia could start reconsidering and rethinking its approach.
Francesco Sisci is director of Appia Institute, which originally published this article. It is republished with permission.