Multiple media outlets have reported that Russia is threatening Germany over an alleged leaked call between military officials discussing the hypothetical use of Taurus air-launched cruise missiles (ALCM) in the Ukraine war. The conversation was never meant to be public and the leak has raised concerns about the security of Germany’s communications.
The 38-minute recording from last month features military officers discussing deployment scenarios for Taurus long-range cruise missiles in Ukraine. In the recording, Germany’s air force head, Ingo Gerhartz, discussed deployment scenarios for Taurus missiles in Ukraine with three colleagues before meeting with Defense Minister Boris Pistorius.
The four military officers discussed the system’s potential use by Ukraine against Russian forces and touched on possible red lines for German politicians and the need for German soldiers’ participation.
Germany has not agreed to deliver the cruise missiles sought by Ukraine and its defense ministry is investigating the leak, denouncing it as an act of “information warfare” against the West.
Russia has questioned whether Germany’s armed forces were discussing plans to launch strikes on Russian territory. The German and Swedish-made missiles would help Ukraine put pressure on Russia in the Black Sea and elsewhere.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has been reluctant to give such missiles to Ukraine, citing fears it would risk Germany’s direct involvement in the war.
While the UK and France have given their nearly identical Storm Shadow and SCALP missiles, Germany’s Taurus has some advantages that may provide Ukraine a decisive edge.
The Associated Press (AP) noted this month that while all three missiles have stealth features to penetrate enemy air defenses, the turbofan-powered Taurus has a 500-kilometer range, compared to just 250 kilometers for the export versions of the turbojet-powered SCALP and Storm Shadow. AP says that range allows Taurus to reach targets in the Black Sea and deep in Russia.
Another critical difference between Taurus, SCALP and Storm Shadow lies in their warheads. In an October 2023 Politico article, Caleb Larson points out that SCALP and Storm Shadow use a “Multi-Application Fuse Initiation System (MAFIS)” where the delay between impact and warhead detonation is manually set.
Larson says this makes it difficult to destroy complex targets like bridges, as the missile might have to penetrate a thin roadbed before impacting the real target—the concrete supports holding up the entire structure.
In contrast, he mentions that Taurus uses a “void-sensing and layer-counting” Programable Intelligent Multi-Purpose Fuse (PIMF) that can recognize layers of material and voids, making it more effective in blowing up multilayered or buried targets than SCALP or Storm Shadow.
Germany’s discussions to supply Ukraine with the Taurus ALCM may aim to break taboos within the broader NATO alliance about sending even more advanced weapons to Kiev. Such taboos were evident early in the conflict when NATO was debating whether to send advanced main battle tanks (MBT) to help bolster the latter’s defense against Russia’s onslaught.
Numerous factors reinforced those taboos, such as NATO countries not having enough MBTs for their own security, concerns about compromising advanced technology to Russia, fears about escalating the conflict and reputational costs if those MBTs are destroyed in combat.
Nevertheless, in January 2023, the UK supplied its Challenger 2 MBTs to Ukraine, setting a precedent for Germany and the US to provide Leopard 2 and M1 Abrams units respectively.
Similarly, Germany’s reluctance to send Taurus ALCMs to Ukraine may stem from concerns about its personnel getting involved in the Ukraine war, fears about compromising the Taurus’ technology, and the potential it lacks a replacement for the missile for the time being.
Larson points out that the Taurus missile needs to be pre-programmed with topographical mapping data to function in GPS-denied environments, a task performed in Germany.
Larson says pre-programming Taurus would be more demanding for Ukrainian technicians than SCALP and Storm Shadow ALCMs. He mentions that German technicians from MBDA, the Taurus’ manufacturer, might need to enter Ukraine to train Ukrainian technicians on it use, or vice versa they could be sent to Germany for training.
He also mentions Germany’s concern that Russia could get its hands on a nearly intact or unexploded Taurus ALCM, compromising its technology and opening the way for possible reverse engineering. Larson says that problem is compounded by Germany’s plan to use the Taurus as its only deep-strike munition until mid-century.
Nevertheless, should Germany decide to push through with supplying Taurus to Ukraine, it may set a precedent for other NATO countries to provide Ukraine with deep-strike capabilities capable of destroying strategic targets within Russian-held territories.
While the US shipped its Army Tactical Missile (ATACMS) to Ukraine in October last year after much debate, it may have pulled its punches. John Hardie and Bradley Bowman point out in a November 2023 Breaking Defense article that those ATACMS were the older M39 Block I missiles, with a maximum range of only 165 kilometers and armed with a cluster warhead containing 950 bomblets.
They also mentioned that the initial ATACMS delivery was just around 20 or so missiles, with Ukraine expending most of them in its initial salvos against Russian airfields in the Berdyansk region of Zaporizhzhia.
Hardie and Bowman mention that US lawmakers have called on the Biden administration to send Ukraine the newer M39A1 ATACMS variant, which has a 300-kilometer range and a cluster warhead.
Moreover, they note that US lawmakers are urging the Biden administration to send Ukraine ATACMS with unitary warheads. They point out that while cluster warheads are effective against troop concentrations and soft-skinned targets such as aircraft parked in the open, they are ineffective against hardened targets.
If supplied to Ukraine, Germany’s Taurus can complement longer-range versions of ATACMS, should the US send that missile if it overcomes a US Congress deadlock over Ukraine aid worth US$60 billion, compensating for each system’s weaknesses and augmenting their strengths.
ATACMS is a ground-launched missile, meaning it must be positioned close to the front lines to exploit its maximum range while making it vulnerable to counterbattery fire. While Taurus is an ALCM, it relies on the availability and survivability of launch aircraft, which are vulnerable unless supported by robust electronic warfare capabilities and other countermeasures.
While longer-ranged ATACMS variants can hit high-value targets behind Russian lines, the Taurus can give Ukraine precision strike capabilities against Russian infrastructure, notably the Crimea Bridge, which serves as a critical supply line for Russian forces in Ukraine and a symbol of Russia’s control over the peninsula.
Ukraine has previously attempted to blow up the Crimea Bridge, launching strikes in October 2022 and July 2023, but has been unsuccessful so far.