Brandenburg’s voting on September 22 was the third and final status vote in Eastern Germany this month, following vital votes in Saxony and Thuringia.
Collectively, these elections have highlighted a major shift in the political landscape of eastern Germany. As in the other two states, the right-wing AfD has risen to prominence while Sahra Wagenknecht’s newly formed Bundnis Sahra Wagenknecht ( BSW) is emerging as a key power broker.
Although the governing Social Democrats ( SPD ) outpolled the AfD by a whisker, the Brandenburg election cements the AfD’s position as Germany’s second-largest party and largest party among young voters.
European support for the Ukraine war and for more immigration restraints were the AfD and BSW’s main campaigns. The SPD largely avoided political disaster because Chancellor Olaf Scholz expressed preliminary support for a quick resolution to the conflict.
The emerging proper function of the BSW is a notable outcome from the three elections. No lot may be formed in Saxony, Thuringia, and now in Brandenburg without the BSW’s cooperation, as both the SPD and the CDU have ruled out participation with the AfD.
The results from Brandenburg reinforce the trends that were observed earlier in September, and they also have significant proper implications for the direction of German and foreign politics, where Wagenknecht’s influence is expanding as her party becomes crucial to governing majority points.
Greens kicked out of congress
In a dramatic turn of events, the Greens in Brandenburg have fallen below the 5 % threshold, making their return to the state legislature increasingly unlikely.
According to the latest estimates, the Greens will get just 4.2 % of the vote, down from 10.8 % in the last election – a staggering decline of over 60 % of their help.
Given that the Greens are one of the most vocal supporters of military aid for Ukraine, this decline is especially important. Their attention to this issue appears to have alienated a sizable portion of Brandenburg’s electorate, where foreign military engagement is becoming increasingly unpopular.
This outcome not only signals the end of the current three-party partnership consisting of the Greens, SPD, and CDU, but also indicates a more significant change in the public.
The challenge for second place between the SPD and AfD consumed much of the political power, leaving other functions, such as the CDU, in collapse. The CD U’s losses, 3.5 percentage points to 12.1 %, reflect the party’s broader struggles as it lost ground in the contest between the two frontrunners.
Throughout the battle, Brandenburg’s SPD secretary leader distanced himself as much as possible from the national SPD and Chancellor Scholz.
In order to combat growing unsatisfaction with the federal government’s management of pressing issues like immigration and Ukraine, the state party purposefully avoided Scholz’s campaign appearances.
More tellingly, users of the Brandenburg SPD apparently called on the SPD’s regional director, Saskia Esken, not to appear on television, reflecting the heavy split between the regional and national arms of the group.
With 30.7 %, an increase of 4.5 points, the SPD continued to lead in Brandenburg thanks to this separation plan. The SPD received a sizable portion of the voting among over-70s, which was especially prosperous among older voters.
A power change: Sahra Wagenknecht’s growing affect
The election results represent a significant shift in Wagenknecht’s and her newly formed Bundnis Sahra Wagenknecht ( BSW). With 13.4 % of the vote, the BSW has become a key person in the Brandenburg state legislature.
Interestingly, no majority coalition may get formed without either the AfD or the BSW. The BSW is the only viable lover for either party because the SPD and CDU both strongly oppose cooperation with the AfD, giving Wagenknecht considerable influence in upcoming partnership agreements.
This newly acquired effect allows the left-nationalist BSW to enhance its platform, especially its foreign policy stance, which stands in stark contrast to the current administration.
The BSW has been outspoken in its opposition to defense support for Ukraine, calling for urgent peace agreements and a shift in Germany’s position within NATO.
Wagenknecht’s group is also calling for a readjustment of Germany’s sanctions against Russia, arguing that they are hurting the German market more than Russia’s.
A pro-AfD children storm
While the SPD dominated among older voters ( 50 % of the vote among 70 -year-olds ), the AfD emerged as the clear favorite among younger voters in Brandenburg, securing 32 % of the vote among 16-24-year-olds.
This is a piece of a wider pattern in eastern Germany. The AfD has strengthened its status as the region’s most powerful group following the elections in Saxony and Thuringia earlier this year.
In each of these state elections, the AfD won around 30 % of the ballot, reflecting common frustration with the federal government’s policies, particularly on issues such as movement and Ukraine.
The AfD has solidly established itself as the dominant political force in eastern Germany now that Brandenburg is now on the same direction as Saxony and Thuringia.
The AfD’s regular electoral victory demonstrates that it is a power that cannot be ignored despite the group’s isolation from possible coalition negotiations despite neither the SPD nor the CDU being willing to cooperate with it.
The benefits of the Brandenburg vote, combined with those of Saxony and Thuringia, confirm a big social change in eastern Germany.
The AfD is currently the region’s most powerful party, consistently receiving about 30 % of the vote in each election. The social environment in eastern Germany is extremely shaped by nationalist movements and a refusal of Berlin’s laws as established events continue to lose ground.
The region is still very divided due to the AfD’s growing attractiveness among younger voters and the SPD’s extended supremacy among older voters. Without the AfD or the BSW, but, forming a stable state in Brandenburg may be difficult.
As the only practical coalition partner left, Wagenknecht’s BSW does get even more effect, making her gathering a key person in shaping Brandenburg’s democratic potential.