When I wrote “Cold War 2.0”, some 18 months ago, Vladimir Putin was deep into his invasion of Ukraine and Xi Jinping was menacing the Philippines in the South China Sea and Taiwan with gray-zone military punishment drills.
When the book was published earlier in 2024, Hamas’ attack on Israel had already triggered a major military conflict in Gaza, and the Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen were disrupting global shipping through the Suez Canal by firing Iranian missiles into ships in the Red Sea.
Now, in late 2024, the Ukrainians are fighting aggressively to hold territory in Russia they took back in August, and Russia is deploying North Korean troops into this war zone.
Israel has attacked Hezbollah (another Iranian-funded proxy) in southern Lebanon, and Israel and Iran are now exchanging directly major missile offensives. Further, three times this year, China has significantly increased its military grey-zone punishment tactics against Taiwan.
All that remains is for Beijing to amplify its aggression against Taiwan to a full-on blockade, and Cold War 2.0 will have escalated into World War 3.0.
A new US president will be elected next week into this fraught geopolitical dynamic. I`m 67 years old, and this is easily the most consequential US election in my lifetime.
If Kamala Harris wins, we will see the US continue to strengthen its security alliances around the world, especially in the Pacific with Japan and South Korea, in order to push back on the four autocracies that drive Cold War 2.0 and have the world on the brink of World War 3.0: Russia, China, Iran and North Korea. If Donald Trump wins, it’s really anyone’s guess what the erratic autocrat wannabe will do.
Among the globe’s most menacing autocracies, Russia seems the biggest threat. Putin punches above his weight because, frankly, he loves to punch.
Still, the central player in the network of autocracies is China. As with so much else in the world, if you want to find the source of power, just follow the money. In effect, China’s gargantuan economy – the second largest in the world – is already bankrolling Cold War 2.0.
China is keeping the Russian economy afloat by buying huge volumes of oil and gas from Russia and in return shipping massive amounts of cars, machinery and technical components to Russia. These are essential for keeping Moscow’s war economy cranking out weapons and ammunition and keeping its domestic population from rising up against the regime.
Without China, Russia long ago would have retreated from Ukraine. Instead, with China’s help, and now with North Korean troops, Moscow continues its naked aggression against Kyiv, hoping that a more pliable US president (namely Mr Trump) will cause Ukraine to capitulate. Again, the importance of November 5 cannot be overstated.
China also bankrolls Tehran by buying nearly all of the oil that Iran exports. Iran then uses this money for, among other things, making weapons and ammunition for its proxy fighters in the Middle East, the Houthis, Hezbollah and Hamas.
Moscow then provides satellite data to the Houthis to allow them to target ships passing through the Red Sea, thereby cutting off the Suez Canal shipping route. Iran reciprocates by providing Russia with drones and ballistic missiles that then cause havoc in Ukraine.
China also buys 95 % of the exports of North Korea, again keeping alive that pariah country. North Korea has supplied millions of artillery shells to Russia for use against the Ukrainian army, and most recently, Pyongyang also ships Moscow ballistic missiles.
In return, the North Korean regime is likely getting high-end missile technology from Moscow with which Kim Jong Un’s regime can better threaten South Korea and Japan.
Still, the flywheel of the autocracies is China, and the democracies enable China’s economic power by conducting trillions of dollars of trade with China every year.
Next time you buy something “Made in China” at your local retailer, remember the critical role the consumer in the democracies plays in funding the network of autocracies, thereby allowing them to combat the democracies in the current Cold War 2.0 and the upcoming World War 3.0.
The next US president’s principal job will be stopping the flow of massive economic wealth from the democracies to China.
After a career as a technology lawyer, Takach is currently a Senior Fellow at the Bill Graham Centre for Contemporary History at the University of Toronto and the author of “Cold War 2.0: Artificial Intelligence in the New Battle Between Russia, China and America.”