Japan and the rest of the world are watching the seemingly endless volatility of the US presidential election campaign with growing uneasiness.
President Joe Biden’s fatal argument performance, which sparked rising calls for him to step aside, has been a roller coaster over the past month. Former president Donald Trump, previously buoyed by Biden’s issues, narrowly escaped an assassin’s bullet, an memorable moment that boosted his political fortunes.
Biden’s announcement to withdraw from the race on Sunday added another remarkable twist to the election. Vice President Kamala Harris was instantly chosen as the Democratic Party’s candidate, according to the leader.
The result of this tense election is not at all certain. Yet, as of now, the idea that Trump did return to power in Washington may be taken seriously.
The so-called MAGA ( Make America Great Again ) movement, which harkens to the neo-fascism of the 1930s, cements the power of that group by an separatist, protectionist, and Christian republican activity.
The choice of a beginner US senator from Ohio, JD Vance, as the vice-presidential candidate confirmed that invasion. Vince has a strong support for the movement’s worldview.
What does Trump’s return to power suggest for Japan and other allies who are still heavily reliant on the US as the source of what is left of the postwar era?
This writer sought the counsel of renowned and renowned American experts on Japan, Sheila Smith of the Council on Foreign Relations ( CFR ) and Richard Samuels of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology ( MIT ).
In the event that Trump and his action win in November, we have created a list of the five most likely hallucinations for Japan. It is by no means an exhaustive record; more problems are undoubtedly present that extend beyond these.
Nightmare 1: trade conflict and economic tension
Trump has repeatedly announced plans to establish an across-the-board 10 percent tax on all imported items, and an even larger – 50-60 % – tariff on Chinese exports. He has long supported business protectionionism. “Economically, they’re phenomenal”, he told Bloomberg Businessweek in a new interview. ” And gentleman, is it great for bargaining”.
Trump also intends to target the discrepancy between the yen, the money, and the renminbi, indicating his desire to orchestrate a significant weakening of the money in the manner of the Plaza Accords from September 1985.
He claimed for Bloomberg that Japan and China purposefully kept their economies weakened in order to support their trade deficits. ” That’s how Japan was built. That’s how China was built. I think we’re in a very poor place”, Trump declared.
China is his primary goal. But, that would have a systemic impact on Japan, making it have to decide whether to continue trading or to maintain ties to China’s large market.
The Trump activity is based on American nationalism and protectionism, which extends to China. Just take a listen to Vance’s statement at the Republican agreement:
We’re done sacrificing supply chains to unrestricted global trade, and we’re going to start stamping more and more goods with the gorgeous” Made in the USA” brand. We’re going to restart businesses and put people to work producing true products made by American workers in their own homes. We will work together to protect American workers ‘ wages and stop the Chinese Communist Party from enraging American citizens ‘ middle-classes.
Trump also squeezs states ‘ trade restrictions to achieve his goals in other areas. Ellis and Smith predict that Trump will use this tactic to demand that Japan foot a much larger portion of the cost of American forces there, also threatening to resign.
While Trump’s advisors say that Japan would be key to their anti-China focus, “it wo n’t stop them from threatening to abandon Japan to squeeze them to do more”, says MIT’s Samuels. There were trade disputes managed during the first Trump presidency, according to Ellis, but” no Japanese politician has the ability to placate Trump like Abe did.”
Financial populism extends to foreign direct investment. Japan has historically been able to move funding and factories to the US to address this. The final test may be the management of the Nippon Steel bid to purchase US steel, but that activity may be over.
” I ca n’t see Trump backing away”, says the CFR’s Smith on his pledge to block that purchase. Despite aspirations that Trump will be a deal-maker on this, the philosophical, Christian nationalist Trump is then locked in position. ” We are going to offer with a non-transactional Trump when it comes to Japan”, she predicts.
Nightmare 2: a package with Kim Jong Un and a departure from South Korea
Senior members of his presidency told senior officers that Trump was prepared to remove American troops from South Korea if he had won re-election in 2020. If he once more veered in that direction under a new administration, it would n’t be surprising. Chinese leaders have long seen like plans, going again to the 1970s, as threatening Japan’s personal security.
Troop departure from South Korea is likely to result in a return to Kim Jung Un’s corporate agreement. Trump made it clear in his convention speech that he wanted to strike a bargain with Kim.
” I got along very well with” Kim Jong Un, Trump told his supporters. ” When we get up, I get along with him. He’d like to see me up, too. If you want to know the truth, I believe he misses me.
Trump asserted that during his administration, North Korea had stopped conducting its missile checks. In truth, there has never been a stop to missile testing that could accomplish Japan.
” The real problem for the Japanese is that the Americans accept small and medium-range weapons capacity, nuclear-armed, in Pyongyang, in change for some credible ensure that the international ballistic missile system goes away”, says Samuels.
Shinzo Abe, the former prime minister, tried his hardest to end this love. But, suddenly, he is gone.
Compelled by American withdrawal, South Korea assuredly would move quickly to try to create its own atomic ability.
For all these causes, Korea is “high on my list of dream scenarios”, agrees Smith. ” Specially if it is combined with a friendly overture to Putin,” she said.
Which brings us to the next looming threat.
Nightmare 3: Trump embraces Russia and leaves Ukraine.
The major players in the opposition to the most recent military assistance package to Ukraine were Trump and his running mate, JD Vance.
They were able to postpone it for six months, giving Russia a critical military advantage in order to change the course of events on the field in Ukraine. They are now prepared to complete the task, supporting Russia’s attempts to impose a cease-fire that amounts to a Russian surrender.
This opposition to Putin is smeared in speech about the need to change resources to Asia and put pressure on Europe to shoulder the cost of supporting Ukraine.
Trump will discuss an end to the war, Vance told Fox News ‘ Sean Hannity, adding that” we are totally distracted from it because China poses the greatest threat to our nation.”
The Putin administration made clear an understanding of the information.
Vance” stands for peace, for withdrawal of support. We can just allowed this because, in reality, it is necessary to prevent pumping Ukraine with arms, and the war did finish”, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said.
While some Democrats claim to also resist Russian aggression, Vance has always been more clear. After the Russian invasion in 2022, he declared,” I gotta be honest with you, I do n’t really care what happens to Ukraine.”
Nightmare 4: problems in the Taiwan Strait
The New Right ideologies that are organized around Vance and Trump have made China the center of their international policy. Some assert that arms sent to Ukraine should be flown that in order to prevent China from attempting to take control of Taiwan.
In fact, Taiwanese are unable to absorb such weapons and are not interested in doing so. And Chinese leaders have repeatedly claimed that a Russian victory in Ukraine would simply encourage China, supported by Moscow, to be more violent on Taiwan.
A subsequent Trump administration might make things worse by causing China to host a fight and compel Japan to retaliate militarily against China. Likewise, and perhaps more persistently with Trump’s personal America First philosophy, we may rather see an rejection of Taiwan.
Trump made that clear – and it was n’t the first time – in the Bloomberg interview. He attacked Taiwan for having taken” about 100 % of our device business”. He indicated that he was not interested in defending them. ” Taiwan does n’t give us anything. Taiwan is 9, 500 yards away. It’s 68 kilometers away from China”.
Nightmare 5: an conservative, destructive America
Perhaps the most unsettling horror for Japan, which depends on the stability and dependability of a political United States, is the possibility that America will collapse into total chaos and crippling the federal government.
The whole federal bureaucracy will be completely wiped out in accordance with the detailed plans the Heritage Foundation has created for a Trump regime, known as Project 2025. Experts from the MAGA movement may get fired, and unionists may take their place.
For friends, choosing who to believe and who to go to will be challenging, problems Smith. ” That kind of function can be deadly”.
Samuels points out that Japan has defined its role in the world using principles embodied in concepts like the Free and Open Indo-Pacific ( FOIP ) and values that it shares with the United States.
According to Ellis,” the rest of the world will see the US looking more like Hungary and less like France or Great Britain.” Japan’s problem is the US’s declining democracy.
At Stanford University, Daniel Sneider gives seminars on foreign policy and South Asian research. This content was first published by Toyo Keizai. It is republished with authority.