Fears of an unnecessary increase in the disputed waterways were heightened by the near-fatal showdown between Chinese and Spanish maritime forces last week in the South China Sea.
A Filipino soldier suffered bodily injury after , a huge contingent of Taiwanese forces , collided with and then forcibly , boarded and disarmed personnel aboard a Philippine resupply mission , en , route , to the , passionately- contested , Next Thomas Shoal.
Had Filipino marine troops resisted  , China’s latest violent action, the situation truly would have turned much more violent and possibly fatal, reminiscent of , hand- to- hand combat , between , Chinese , and Indian troops at the disputed borders in the Himalayas.  ,
Washington, which has a Mutual Defense Treaty ( MDT ) with the Philippines, was quick to condemn the latest incident. The US State Department reiterated its security obligations to the Philippines in the event of an armed attack on Spanish troops and common vessels in the South China Sea in a speech.
Spanish authorities formally lashed , out , at China ‘s ,” aggressive, violent and savage actions” – but were swift to de- escalate tensions by maintaining that the latest incident did not constitute an “armed attack” but instead was the product of a , probable “misunderstanding or accident”.
” Well, you know this was probably a misunderstanding or an accident. We’re not yet ready to classify this as an armed attack”, said Executive Secretary Lucas , Bersamin , in a press conference hastily- organized last Friday.  , Bersamin, who leads the , National Maritime Council ( NMC),  , which coordinate interagency responses to crises in the South China Sea, was quick to shut down any speculation over the possible invocation of the MDT.  ,
The Filipino official reiterated its commitment to a diplomatic resolution of the conflict by also offering an olive branch to Beijing. I believe this issue can be resolved by us, Bersamin said. ” And if China wants to work with us, we can work with China” . , The Philippine government’s muted response , met with criticism and outrage across the country.  ,
Leading Philippine experts  , have argued , that China’s latest action could have been a basis for invocation of the MDT. According to surveys, 93 percent of Filipinos want their government to defend their country’s territories and regain control of the areas that China has occupied up to .
Many in the Philippines , began to doubt , the determination of the Marcos administration to stand up to China, as well as , to question , America’s reliability as an ally.
In a speech before Philippine , military , personnel at the southwestern province of Palawan, which lies near the disputed Spratly islands, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr sought to strike a balance , by emphasizing that the Philippines has an uncompromising position as well as a commitment to diplomacy.  ,
Our main goal is to make every Filipino a peaceful and prosperous place. We are not in the business of starting wars. In his” Talk to the Troops” speech, Marcos claimed that this is the drumbeat, that this is the tenet that we live by and march by.
” We reject the regulations that require us to choose our sides in a fierce power battle. No truly democratic government, he added, will inevitably cause harm to people’s lives or livelihoods, which would underscore the need for a non-aligned, independent foreign policy. Nevertheless, the Filipino president emphasized that his government will ,” stand firm” in protecting the country’s sovereign rights in the South China Sea.
The most recent incident’s precise circumstances are still unknown. Afraid intervention was a legitimate response from China’s point of view to the Philippines ‘ alleged violation of a prior agreement regarding the Second Thomas Shoal. Manila has based troops over a grounded warship, BRP Sierra Madre, and has de facto control over the disputed feature since the late 1990s. However, China has hoped to peacefully eject its rival from the area over the past ten years given the extreme poor conditions in the de facto Philippine base.
In 2013 People’s Liberation Army , General Zhang , Zhaozhong , argued,  ,” Without the supply for one or two weeks, the  ,]Filipino ]  , troopers stationed there will leave the islands on their own. Once they have left, they will never be able to come back”.
Over the years, China   increased its reclamation activities in the disputed areas, leading to a number of massive artificial islands and military installations, and it also tightened the noose around Philippine-occupied land features like the Second Thomas Shoal.
Accordingly, China , rapidly expanded , the number of vessels, both warships and civilian, dispatched to the area in order to cut off Philippine resupply lines near the shoal. The Asian superpower raised the stakes when it began to suspect that the Philippines had been transporting construction and materials to fortify and de facto base in spite of an alleged” secret agreement” with former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte to maintain the status quo.  ,
Recent reports suggest that China has already occupied the crumbling BRP Sierra Madre, which has already been sparked by outrage and aggressive countermeasures.  , Increasingly dangerous clashes between the Philippines and China, however, have raised concerns over America’s role.
The administrations of Trump and Biden both made it clear that MDT would only be effective if Filipino troops and public vessels were attacked by armed forces. But China’s deft reliance on “gray zone” tactics has undercut the utility of the Philippine- US alliance dramatically. This gap, which has been systematically exploited by China, has been clearly identified by Pentagon strategic planners.
Last year, the , Indo- Pacific Command ( INDOPACOM)  , released an unclassified report in which its legal experts argued that the MDT , should also apply to , “illegal use of force]which ]  , is not limited by law to a kinetic armed attack ( e. g. the use of munitions ), but could also include non- kinetic attacks that result in death, injury, damage, or destruction of persons or objects”.
So far, however, the Biden administration has demurred from , expanding the parameters of the MDT and, instead, insisted on a more general rhetoric of “ironclad commitment” that clearly does n’t cover , gray zone assaults on Philippine troops. As a result, critics are beginning to question the Marcos administration’s decision to increase military support for Western allies without making specific commitments to the escalating South China Sea disputes.  ,
Despite China’s lack of appetite for compromise on its expansive claims across the disputed waters, both the Marcos administration and the US have so far pressed for a diplomatic approach. Manila is likely to push for revisions of the rules governing its mutual defense obligations with America in response to growing domestic pressure.
It’s still to be seen if Washington is willing to increase its military ties to its besieged Southeast Asian ally now that the superpower is facing competing priorities around the world and the US presidential election is about to start.