Another menacing growth that is causing the Middle East to start a full-fledged local war is the alleged Jewish attack on Hezbollah members via their pagers. With the complete help of the Iran-led” axis of weight,” Hezbollah has little choice but to fight.
The style and effect of targeting the pagers are extraordinary. The invasion resulted in at least 11 murders, including some of Hezbollah’s soldiers, and up to 3, 000 persons wounded.
The main goal of the invasion, which US authorities claim was carried out by Israel, was to destroy Hezbollah’s means of communication and its command and control method in Lebanon.
Pagers have increasingly become the chosen communication method within the team as Hezbollah has reduced the use of cellular phones by its troops because Israel may easily find and target them.
Given the political divisions in the country, the attack may have been intended to stoke panic within the organization and among the Lebanese public, who are typically opposed to Hezbollah.
The Israeli leadership under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly stated that it is determined to end the threat of Hezbollah, which has operated in solidarity with Hamas, since Hamas ‘ attacks on southern Israel on October 7.
Hours prior to the pager attack, Netanyahu’s government stated that Israel’s war objectives would include the return of the tens of thousands of residents of northern Israel, which they had fled due to ongoing rocket fire from Hezbollah. Israel’s defense minister, Yoav Gallant, said the only way to do this was through military action.
The simultaneous pager explosions on Tuesday, then, may be a prelude to an all-out Israeli offensive against Hezbollah.
The consequences of war with Hezbollah
Hezbollah has already declared it will retaliate. What form this will take is still to be seen. The group has a massive military arsenal that allows it to attack other regions of the Jewish state, including densely populated Tel Aviv, with drones and missiles, as well as attack northern Israel.
Hezbollah showed this capability in its 2006 war with Israel. The war lasted 34 days, during which 165 Israelis were killed ( 121 IDF soldiers and 44 civilians ) and Israel’s economy and tourist industry were markedly damaged. Hezbollah and Lebanese losses were far greater, with at least 1, 100 deaths. However, the Israel Defence Forces ( IDF) failed to destroy or incapacitate the group.
Any successful retaliatory attack on Israel’s cities could result in serious civilian casualties, giving Israel a new pretext to pursue its long-awaited goal of destroying Hezbollah and punishing its principal supporter, the Islamic Republic of Iran.
In a wider conflict, the United States is committed to defending Israel, while Iran would support Hezbollah in whatever way necessary. Iranian leaders are mistaken if they believe Iran will continue to vehemently abstain from any actions that could lead to hostilities with Israel and the US.
Hezbollah is a crucial component of the regime’s national and regional security framework. Tehran has invested heavily in the group, along with other regional affiliates – Iraqi militias, the Yemeni Houthis and the Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad, in particular. This” axis of resistance” was created with the intention of creating a powerful deterrent against Israel and the US.
The Iranian regime has seen Israel and its main supporter, the US, as an existential threat, just as Israel has seen Iran in the same light since it was founded 45 years ago.
For this, the regime has reoriented its foreign relations towards America’s major adversaries, especially Russia and China. Moscow will not hesitate to support Iran and its affiliates in any war because of the fact that the Russo-Iranian military cooperation has grown so powerful.
Tehran is fully cognisant of Israel’s nuclear prowess. Iran has developed its own nuclear program to the point where it qualifies as a weapon to prevent it. Russian leaders may have also gotten Russia’s assurances that if Israel were to use its nuclear weapons, it would help protect Iran.
In the meantime, it is important to keep in mind that Israel has been unable to completely destroy Hamas after nearly a year of destroying Gaza and causing its residents.
Its own actions demonstrate this. Gazans have been repeatedly forced to relocate so that IDF soldiers can operate in areas they had previously claimed were free of fighters.
It would take much more effort to defeat Hezbollah and its supporters. It carries the serious risk of a war that all parties have been campaigning against but are already getting ready for.
The pager attack is just the most recent operation to threaten any chance of a permanent ceasefire in the Gaza Strip that would bring about peace rather than war.
At the Australian National University, Professor Amin Saikal is emeritus professor of Middle Eastern and Central Asian Studies.
This article was republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.