The wonder of the American national election was how fast the results were made public, and newly elected president-elect Donald Trump has kept that unpredictability by announcing government choices. Except for those who had hoped vainly that he would be more reasonable in terms of government than he was in terms of campaigning, those choices have not been unexpected. They will then place a lot of pressure on Europe to adapt and respond, and they will do so quickly.
This aims to introduce Europe’s greatest failure while highlighting what, at least in the rare instances, results in such supremacy for a single political party and individual. In a system of the European Union intentionally designed to prevent one nation or person from becoming the strong, Europe moves slowly and by bargain. America’s national state can be far more significant.
Despite Ursula von der Leyen being re-elected as president on July 18, there is still no confirmation from the European Union that a new Western Commission is in place. Even more important, however, is failure in Germany and France: Germany’s Olaf Scholz faces a no-confidence ballot on December 16, paving the way to early general elections on February 23, France’s new prime minister, Michel Barnier, is battling to find his 2025 resources passed by a deeply divided National Assembly.
Obviously, the speed of Trump’s visits is largely misleading. He is making his judgments sooner than he did in 2016, but electorates are still unable to fill those positions until January 20 and beyond, or until their meetings have been confirmed by Senate votes. Trump’s desires for a smoother process may not be as good.
Trump’s Republican Party now holds a clear majority in the Senate, but his controversial choices of a malevolent nationalist, Congressman Matt Gaetz, as solicitor general, of an incompetent Fox News TV presenter, Pete Hesgeth, as secretary of defense, and of extremist Putin-sympathizer Tulsi Gabbard as director of national intelligence may all experience opposition from more modest Republican Senators. Trump’s nomination of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as secretary of health and human services is now on his list of consciously defamatory choices, which in effect challenge moderate Republicans to support him.
The new Commission is still awaiting action because the new European Commission are presently having their own assurance trials in the European Parliament. Officials may create emergency plans in response to Trump’s upcoming challenges, particularly in regards to business, security, and Ukraine. But without social management, those plans may be cast into question.
Solid governments that anticipate remaining in power for a while, similar to the total European response to Mario Draghi’s proposals to boost European competitiveness in July, will be required. Politicians who are shrouded in the support of their own political turmoil may also make some quick decisions.
Most importantly, the Scholz government, in its last weeks in office before the confidence vote, may make actions towards helping Ukraine strengthen its bargaining location, safe in the knowledge that such activities may be supported by the center-right criticism. The center-right Christian Democrats ‘ leader, Friedrich Merz, has long supported Ukraine, but he may also support a swift resolution with Scholz that assumes responsibility for such a decision, reducing the chance that it will spark controversy during the election.
Although Keir Starmer, the newly elected prime minister, is unopposed in the United Kingdom, it may be persuaded to back a decision by Scholz and Merz to send more weapons to Ukraine and, in particular, to permit Ukraine to use those weapons for long-range strikes against Russia. Long-range missile strikes into Russia would have the best chance of thwarting an imminent major Russian offensive that will attempt to retake control of the land held by Ukrainian forces since August in the Kursk region.
Trump’s biggest trade challenge wo n’t be until after January 20, but Europe should be prepared to impose a 10 % or 20 % tariff on its exports to the United States within his first few days in office. Awkwardly, that will fall during the German election campaign. But Scholz
This article, published on Bill Emmott’s Global View, is the English original of an article published in Italian by La Stampa. It is republished with permission.