President Trump and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth have dealt a major blow to European officials who have been vocal supporters of keeping the Ukraine war on. Most of them must be in surprise, gasping for breath.
Let’s begin with Hegseth. He made the following statements:
1. Ukraine’s participation in NATO is off the board. Ukraine won’t get invited to join NATO.
2. The US will not take any soldiers to Ukraine for any reason, including security.
3. The US will not long provide or pay for Ukraine’s assistance and arms. The members of the German NATO will have the authority to offer Ukraine help.
4. British participation must be fair and equitable, which means that NATO people will have to significantly improve their efforts.
5. The US anticipates significant regional agreements from Ukraine because it will be unable to reclaim its former enclaves as it did before 2014.
President Trump, however, held an hour-and-a-half telephone conference with Russian President Putin. The main lesson is that Putin stated that he would like to start discussions with the US regarding Ukraine and additional safety concerns.
The Trump-Putin talk covered many matters, for example: safety concerns, energy, artificial intelligence and” the power of the money”.
Trump allegedly made the call after the phone,” to tell” Ukrainian President Zelensky of his talk with Putin. He likewise immediately formed his negotiation group. The discussions were led by Ambassador and Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, Director of the CIA John Ratcliffe, National Security Advisor Michael Waltz, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
Significantly, the listing of members did not contain retired Lieutenant General Keith Kellogg. Klugg had openly opposed the idea of substantially raising Russia’s sanctions in an effort to gain concessions from Ukraine. On a range of one to 10, as he put it, the existing sanctions against Russia are just a three. He suggested making them much higher ( assuming this could be accomplished ).
These opinions immediately undermined Trump’s method to Putin and Russia, and seem to have been Kellogg’s thought (among some ) to make sure the Ukraine war continued. It’s unknown whether Kellogg will once more play as a person in Ukraine.
It will take occasion for Europe’s pro-war officials, along with the EU, to contemplate the future, now that the floor has quite nicely been pulled out from under their feet.
The Ukrainian conflict cannot be fought with the weapons, troops, or income by the Europeans. Without the United States ‘ participation in the game, they didn’t receive little support for the game’s continuation. In fact, if Europe want to remain on its own, without the United States, it may harm the future of the NATO ally.
Many of the frontrunners in Europe are in trouble internally. The growing insecurity in the German leadership class is best illustrated by the cancellation of presidential elections in Germany, France, Poland, and perhaps Romania, where the leading opposition candidate was unable to win.
Discoveries about US and EU intervention in the political process in Georgia, Serbia and Slovakia, perhaps even Moldova, emphasize the squalid character of current-day elections in Europe.
The Trump presidency is liquidating USAID, which has been acting as a sort of CIA-front in many of the preceding countries, including Ukraine. The EU is facing a major issue that extends far beyond financing as a result of that funding and help being cut off. The fraudulent argument that the Union ( and, with it, NATO ) is upholding republic is now exposed. The ruling leaders are in genuine danger of losing their validity.
Trump has an important political view. It has the following message: Western security is crucial, but it is not actually threatened by Russia. The US faces a resurgent China that has a ( largely Western-supplied ) very modern industrial base, a massive workforce and an increasingly well-equipped and powerful military.
From Trump’s point of view, he needs a more pleasant Russia that can help stabilize global energy relationships. He must find new ways to reinvent the deeply fractured and hostile US-Russia marriage. In his 90-minute dialogue with Putin, Trump was poking at financial and technology features that was, in future, give a basis for improving relationships.
No one can yet say whether a bargain will be struck with Ukraine, but there is reason to be more positive that the two parties can work things out.
We will have to wait and see if the Europeans rebel and attempt to damage a deal with Ukraine. In fact, Europe has very little to do if Putin and Trump reach a bargain.
Stephen Bryen is a former US assistant secretary of defense for plan and a special correspondent for Asia Times. This post, which previously appeared on his Substack email Weapons and Strategy, is republished with authority.