Europe is facing fight in Ukraine as its laws on the battle go , backward. Europe’s strategy is extremely unreflective of the changing reality on the ground, and growing efforts to condemn Russia and encourage sending troops to Ukraine seem counterproductive.
Germany is a prime example of this, which has indicated that it will continue to support Ukraine and advance its anti-Russian plan. Chancellor Olaf Scholz , no longer refers to Vladimir Putin as Russia’s leader  , and now only speaks of the Russian president by his last name, Putin.  ,
But, Germany  , will never send its lengthy- range Taurus weapons to Ukraine,  , where they could be used to attack Moscow, because Russia then knows all about the program due to a communications catch. The , Russians have told Scholz they will react if he sends them – precisely how has been left to Scholz’s mind.
Scholz’s behavior is comparable to that of other European leaders ( aside from Hungary ) and of the super-governmental EU. They then all know that Ukraine is collapsing and that the Russians are winning in Ukraine.
That is why European head Emmanuel Macron is trying so hard to create a coalition , to deliver NATO- land troops to Ukraine.  , At least so far, his rivals are listening but holding up. It is not surprising that Ukraine does n’t support sending Euro troops.
From an operational , view, it would not be easy to move NATO forces to Ukraine beyond those already there.  , While they might be able to set some troops in , eastern Ukraine, where there is no battle, they know the Russians would utilize their lengthy- range missiles and air force to kill them.  ,
The Europeans have little in the way of , deployable air defenses, and if they transferred , more of them to protect their troops inserted into Ukraine, they would be naked at home. In fact, by supporting Ukraine, they have already exhausted their air defenses to an unprecedented degree.
Most armies in Europe are understaffed and underfunded.  , European land armies are tiny , and inexperienced in combat. Fighting a modern Russian army that is well-equipped and has extensive experience in large-scale warfare is not the same as fighting in Afghanistan, Iraq, or the Sahel.
Notably, all Western plans to defeat the Russians have so far failed. Looking past the mutual recriminations, it is clear by now that the “plan” was a fantasy.
If the Ukrainian offensive used a preponderance of Western hardware, had exceptional tactical intelligence, thousands of drones and endless ammunition, and still went belly- up, the future is grim. A , leaked US Pentagon report , that showed casualties at seven Ukrainians to every one Russian ( or worse ) was the handwriting on the wall.
The French understand the arithmetic but Macron’s “plan” is even worse than the one ginned up by the US Defense Department. Macron hints at sending 20, 000 French troops to Odesa. But what would they do there?  ,
The Russians are considering Odesa as well, and they might be drawn to the idea of killing two birds with one stone. Dimitry Medvedev, now deputy chairman of the Russian Security Council and former Russian president,  , said on February 22:
Because of the city’s history, the people who live there, and the language they speak,” we have longed for Odesa in the Russian Federation.” This is our Russian city”. French troops stationed in Odesa would have no other use for combating the Russians if they were to encourage them to attack the city.
Russians made numerous tactical errors and did not start the conflict in Ukraine with strong military might. However, that has since changed as the Russian army has been more disciplined and its leadership has improved significantly across all levels, with the exception of the Russian Navy.  ,
Russian industry is , producing more and better weapons , and is outpacing all of the West, including the United States. While Europe and the US are actively trying to improve defense manufacturing, it , will take years , to even replace the weapons destroyed in the Ukraine war.
Today, Europe is gripped with fear of Russia, a fear that is not entirely misplaced. Russia is unlikely to attack Europe, according to Marie Le Pen, the parliamentary party leader of the National Rally in the French Assembly, in an interview with BFM-TV ( Paris ) on March 20.  ,
But her appreciation is not shared by those in power in France, Germany, Britain or Poland, no matter what brave words they tell their home audiences.  , They fear what will happen next when Ukraine is defeated.
” Emmanuel Macron’s behavior is something I do not acknowledge, and that is that he plays politics with war,” he said. We cannot play with war or peace, according to the guiding principle that says,” You are either pro- Macron, and if you are not pro- Macron, you are for Putin.”
– Marine Le Pen
Europe’s unusual response to growing fear is surprising.  , Instead of trying to find a way to head off a disaster in Ukraine, Europe is doubling down on trying to” punish” Russia, adding more sanctions and getting ready to take already , seized Russian assets and hand them over to Kiev. The Europeans appear unaware or even care how their actions are perceived in Moscow.
Objectively, there is not much Europe can really do to save Ukraine from defeat. A lot is being made of Ukraine’s ammunition shortage, which is real, but little is being said that there , is n’t any ammunition , to ship there.  ,
Ukraine ‘s , real problem is manpower.  , They have run out of people willing to serve and , morale , in the Ukrainian army is starting to crack. These more frequent instances of collapse are bound to cause political change in Kiev.  ,
Strange Ukrainian military maneuvers that resemble something out of the ordinary make some of the disintegration apparent. Both the waste of manpower and the attempt to hold onto Avdiivka, which resulted in serious casualties and a Russian victory, on Krynky is a suicide mission.  ,
The most recent Russian attacks on Belgorod’s vicinity also qualify as high-deputy suicide operations. Ukraine’s apparent interest in , seizing Russian nuclear weapons near Belgorod , at an installation called , Belgorod- 22 and a missile and drone , attack on the Kurchatov nuclear plant , are both reckless. They are the kinds of desperate actions that leaders take when they are aware of their position.
Germany’s Scholz says he wo n’t accept a Putin- dictated peace in Ukraine. This is the rough equivalent of Scholz saying he wo n’t let Donald Trump win the US presidential election. Not only is Scholz’s position nonsense, but it misses the mark.  ,
When the Ukrainian army decides it can no longer fight, the likely end of the conflict in Ukraine will occur. Then the army will refuse orders from Kiev or it will seek to change the government’s leadership.  ,
There are already instances of units refusing orders and even one platoon giving up on the condition that the Ukrainian soldiers not be involved in any negotiations with Ukraine because they are aware that either they will face imprisonment or will face retribution for their lives on the front lines, leading to a certain death.
Ukraine is quickly getting to the point where the Ukrainian army, Ukrainian people, or both must decide whether continuing to fight is in the country’s national interest, or even whether they can hope to survive if they continue to fight.
On one level, Europe’s leaders know where all this is headed in Ukraine but they do n’t want to be honest either with their own people or themselves. They are now dangerously doubling down in defense of a lost war.
Stephen Bryen served as the Senate Foreign Relations Committee’s Near East Subcommittee’s policy director and as its deputy undersecretary of defense.  , This , article , was first published on his , Weapons and Strategy , Substack and is republished with permission.