Back of Myanmar’s 76th Independence Day on January 4, the standard procedures appear gloomy, half- hearted and convincing. By any goal analysis, “independence” from European colonialism has lost its vibe at a time the defense government is immolating Myanmar as a functioning world.
The five “objectives: of this year’s anniversary are as discordant as the State Administration Council’s ( SAC ) standard bouillabaisse of staid propaganda, blending the military’s” Three Main National Causes”, fantasy- land aims for boosting education and agriculture, and then:” ( t ) o make efforts to hold free and fair elections under the law and ensure the right to vote across the nation … ( and ) foster public cooperation for state stability and strengthen the multiparty democratic system at the end of acts of terrorism.”
In other words, there is no program other than to carry on for grim living as” freedom” collapses around them ahead of the fourth anniversary of their tragic coup on February 1, 2021. Rumors of industrial attacks travel and the potential for the launch of imprisoned previous leader Aung San Suu Kyi usually attends important holidays, as does hopes for an inner regime purge. Even the kaw la ha la ( rumors ) are stale this year.
The Myanmar government has never been plagued by tips. The article- independence legal war of the 1950s was the decade of myth- making for the defense as the savior of the union from many ethnic, communist and military insurgents across the country.
A short period of judicial social responsibilities between 1958- 1960 whetted the hunger for total concept leading to the 1962 revolution of General Ne Win. The ruling class of Myanmar had by then been born with the establishment of the Defense Services Academy ( DSA ) in the mid- 1950s”, The Triumphant Elite of the Future”, a caste of officers who came to see guaranteeing independence from colonial rule as replacing it with a domestic version.
Even in its Socialist- time heyday when its conceptual” System of Correlation of Man and His Environment“gave a insane decoupage to a violent, masculine, prejudiced, bigoted, Bamar, Buddhist autocracy, there was a lack of depth to both social planning and heavyweight leadership.
Subsequent regimes, with the acronyms of SLORC and SPDC, earlier but sturdier versions of the SAC, blended brute force with low cunning but also realized that natural resource exploitation and crony capitalism won friends and influenced ( some ) people and were useful in distracting bitter adversaries in ethnic armed organizations ( EAOs ) with drug deals, jade mining, logging and gold.
Around 2009 it must have looked good to make a alter: surviving a cyclone, common social acrimony, global isolation, but with a new constitution, insurgents quelled with business deals, and the panting opportunism of local neighbors for some smash- and- grab capitalist exploitation. Preserving” freedom “from human power and giving the step to Sue Kyi to undermine herself was the commitment of the post- 2010 Myanmar decade.
The inexorable conclusion of Independence Day in Myanmar 2024 is that the SAC has severely weakened the northern state and provided, in part, the grounds for potential several semi- impartial” statelets “in Myanmar. The dramatic gains from Operation 1027, when numerous armed groups attacked several SAC goals in northern Shan state, overrunning lots of military and police bases, appear to have fueled this prospect over the past few years.
Similar improvements have been made in Karenni, Karen, and Rakhine. January 4 may serve as a reminder that the fate of that “victorious elite” and the latest political framework of Myanmar may be inevitable after more than several years of punishing civilians in cultural areas and Central Myanmar.
Since the coup, the counter-insurgency ( COI ) strategy of the Myanmar military has gradually changed from primarily ground-based operations to” stand-off” punitive air raids and heavy artillery bombardment.
Following Operation 1027, a senior SAC official and secretary of the National Solidarity and Peace Negotiation ( NSPNC ) stated to the Ta’ang National Liberation Army ( TNLA ) commander at recent “peace” talks in China that “your regions will never be peaceful, even if you can militarily seize towns and villages in ethnic areas.” We will often use our advanced weapons to conduct air raids.
Senior General Min Aung Hlaing of the SAC was congratulating the Myanmar Air Force ( MAF ), which celebrated its 76th anniversary in December, on the excellent job it was doing in fending off various “insurgents” and “terrorists,” and on how technological trump cards would ultimately ensure victory.
It was a message of ruthless defiance and the use of lethal power to ensure the survival of the main military elite, which has long dominated state and society’s welfare since the early stages of post-independence conflict.
It is clear that using large power to maintain the northern Myanmar state is not a lasting peace strategy. However, the gap may be closing in some areas as resistance asserts that since the beginning of Operation 1027, about 25, 000 unmanned aerial vehicles ( UAVs ) known as “drop-bombs” have been used in Myanmar.
These are undoubtedly no match for Russian-built fighter planes and helicopter gunships, but they are a part of an ongoing uprising against the Myanmar war by the EAO and their Women’s Defense Force ( PDF) allies to seize control of their territory, technologies, battlefield momentum, legitimacy, and most importantly, optimism.
Similar to how they punished Thantlang, the music in Hpakant, and Par Zi Gyi, they are currently punishing Pauktaw, Loikaw and Namshan on land, in the air, as well as at water. Surrender or destruction are the only options for “resolution” in a conflict with military adversaries.
This would have been obvious to anyone who had a reasonable assessment of political towns since Independence in 1948. Why would you expect anything different right then?
The SAC will almost certainly combat to the bitter ending despite the dire circumstances they are unquestionably in. Throwing sand on beef is the literal translation of the Myanmar phrase” m’saarya ahmeh, their pett deh,” which means “if I ca n’t have it, then you can. ” the resentment that precedes a scorched earth plan.” The intentional targeting of everything deemed non-SAC is what the “federalism from below” planners have been dealing with for about three years.
Since gaining its independence, the Myanmar military has adhered to the colonial adage,” If your enemies wo n’t join you, divide them.” Apart from a number of armed groups in other areas of Shan State remaining on the sidelines, that has n’t yet been successful post-coup.
Since 1027, there have been numerous new alliances between various armed groups, as is evident from the fact that the Three Brotherhood Alliance, including the TLNA, Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army ( MNDAA ), and Arakan Army, has supported a number of PDFs.
However, over the course of several decades, all previous military regimes had a habit of encouraging murder, racial divisions, and regional and resource competition. The “new” revolutionary troops must be on the lookout for the SAC’s maliciously successful schemes.
Instead of structured command and control based on the central tenet of Myanmar Independence: unity, the powerful formula should be wide common goals. In Myanmar, the idea of “unity” is in dispute. Long-persecuted cultural nationalities frequently view unity as main control or subordination.
The National Unity Government ( NUG) is widely regarded as the fundamental solution to a post-SAC Myanmar. A fresh Myanmar is being planned by the exiled state, but it is not a monopoly.
In order to build a new nation where local aspirations are supported rather than stifled, the NUG is seeking more productive collaboration, on an equal footing with many of the EAOs. However, more focus must be placed on building greater trust.
Many ethnic groups oppose the replacement of the SAC military dictator with a new Deployment central government, which would effectively carry on the repressive regime’s 76-year legacy.
Models like” confederation” or” subsidiarity” have joined “federalism” as new ways to imagine future political units in the nation, a patchwork of various approaches to state-level governance, from Karenni to Rakhine and Chin States. continuously several “independence struggles” against the SAC
The difficulties of Myanmar’s potential independence from the military are much greater than they were in 1948. However, the important purge to any future peace is the removal of the military, not just its management but the whole institution in its present form.
On January 4, as the SAC generals gather for their terrible ceremonies, it will serve as yet another reminder of how their monkey hold on Myanmar’s independence will eventually come to an end.
Independent scientist David Scott Mathieson focuses on Myanmar’s conflict, philanthropic, and human rights issues.