For Egypt, the terrible discord between Israel and Hamas could not have come at a worse time. In December, a general election will be held for Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, the original military strongman who came to power in 2013 amid the tumultuous consequences of the Arab Spring.
It will be a risky election because of his country’s financial problems and the political and humanitarian disaster that is taking place on its border.
After years of military dictator under Hosni Mubarak, Sisi formally assumed power in July 2013. A short and turbulent interlude that saw a Muslim Brotherhood-backed government led by scientific Mohamed Morsi struggle to maintain order followed Mubarak’s 30-year rule, which came to an end in April 2011 during the Arab Spring.
The following year, in a vote that drew harsh criticism from around the world, Sisi ousted Morsis from office in July 2013 and received 96 % of the vote. Since then, he hasn’t really faced any considerable political opposition, but this can still not account for how unpopular some Egyptians find him to be.
Sisi currently controls what most professionals would say is a candidate for the state’s worst-performing business. The youth unemployment rate is currently at 17 %, and annual inflation reached a historic high of 38 % in September.
Numerous rounds of currency devaluation and an upcoming mandated loan by the International Monetary Fund have added to this financial crisis. Struggling Egyptians may be forced to a degree of poverty not seen since the Ancient bread riots of 1977 by an aggressive austerity program imposed by the IMF.
Sisi will have to run for reelection against this shaky backdrop. Given that Sisi has ruled Egypt with an iron palm since ousting the Muslim Brotherhood in the terrible revolt of July 2013, you could be excused for assuming it would be a simple box-ticking training.
Since then, no vote has been free and fair, and in the intervening years, Egypt’s independent media has all but been destroyed. While civil society, which was once a vibrant social circle, now looks back on Mubarak’s tyranny with some nostalgia, opposition events have either been suppressed or co-opted.
It first appeared as though Sisi would face a reputable opposition, and this was the first time since he assumed power. Previous MP Ahmed Tantawi, a candidate for the Civil Democratic Movement, established himself as an MP by publicly criticizing Sisi in front of the legislature and abstaining from participating in the National Dialogue.
In May 2023, a Sisi-sponsored initiative was introduced. It was marketed by the government as an all-inclusive platform for discussing Egypt’s economic and political difficulties, but detractors have dismissed it as nothing more than a tool for Sisi to further his own plan.
Due to Tantawi’s position on the release of political prisoners, his plan gained support from well-known left-wingers, scholars, and even some Muslim Brotherhood officials who were in captivity. In Egypt’s prisons, there are reportedly 40 000 democratic captives, many of whom belong to the Muslim Brotherhood.
On October 13, however, Tantawi withdrew his election, claiming that pro-government” thugs” were preventing people from registering their help for his campaign.
Tantawi’s recognition represents a fundamental change in Ancient politics, even if his failed campaign wasn’t directly threatening Sisi. Sisi is vulnerable because he has handled Egypt’s financial issues so poorly in recent years.
And his propensity for careless remarks hasn’t helped; once, when questioned about the skyrocketing cost of gumbo, a staple food in ancient Egypt, the man advised them to follow the prophet Muhammad’s example and” eat departs.”
War is about to break out
Sisi’s government must perform a challenging balancing act as the war in Gaza draws near. Israel is determined to protect its boundary, regardless of the repercussions for Egypt. However, Sisi’s home failure might exacerbate home weaknesses. The regime may suffer greatly from the thought of thousands of Gazans perish while Egypt’s Rafah border remains locked.
Given his near ties to the Israeli government, Sisi should exercise caution. Egypt has participated in the 16-year Jewish blockade of Gaza, which has resulted in strict restrictions on the border crossing at Rafah.
But now that an election is approaching, he must satisfy an Iranian populace that is much more friendly to the plight of the Gazans than the Israelis. As the number of Palestinians killed as a result of Israel’s battle in the Gaza Strip rises, he has come under fire from competitors who claim that his administration has staged protests to capitalize on open sympathy.
The threat posed by Egypt’s well-established Islamic movements, however, poses the real threat to his leadership at home. In 2011, Mubarak was overthrown and Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood took control of Tahrir Square thanks to a common rebellion that was sponsored by Muslims.
The army in Egypt is now being strongly cautioned by history to never be careless about the potential danger posed by Islamic movements. Sisi’s government has exerted every effort to obliterate the Brotherhood.
Tens of thousands of people have been subjected to random hold without a test or given lengthy prison term for opposition in military authorities in the ten times since his security forces massacred more than 900 people while violently dismantling large anti-government sit-ins in Rabaa al-Adawiya and al – Nahdo rectangles.
His government’s treatment of Morsi was perhaps the most egregious example of crooked use of energy. After spending six times in solitary confinement, the former president passed away after collapsing inside the plaintiff’s” box” in court in Cairo.
Dealing with the flaws of a faltering business is one factor for an president. It is quite another to host a resentful populace who is witnessing an atrocity against individual freedom just outside its borders. The opposite will have more weapons than they have had in years if the Sisi plan keeps allowing this to happen on its watch.
Gillian Kennedy teaches politics and international relations at the University of Southampton.
Under a Creative Commons license, this essay has been republished from The Conversation. Read the article in its entirety.