Sunday’s elections in two East German states, Saxony and Thuringia, delivered a seismic shift in the political landscape, underscoring the region’s increasing discontent with the federal government’s policies on migration and the Ukraine war.
The right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) has emerged as the dominant force in the region, significantly outpolling the combined vote share of the ruling coalition parties — Social Democrats (SPD), Greens and Free Democrats (FDP) — by a staggering margin of 3 to 1.
The party-by-party results show that 81% and 82% of voters in both East German states are dissatisfied with the federal government’s ruling coalition parties.
Mainstream media widely portrayed the AfD as a neo-Nazi organization in the run-up to the polls, a charge vehemently denied by its leaders, who cast the dissident party in the mold of the 1980s conservativism of the late chancellor Helmut Kohl.
Despite that media drumbeat, according to polls, AfD is now Germany’s number two party and the most popular among young voters.
Maximilian Krah, a member of the European Parliament and an AfD leader in Saxony, wrote on X: “This election changes the political landscape in Germany. It will be an exciting autumn in national politics in Germany thanks to the AfD results in the East.” (Asia Times interviewed Krah in June.)
Voter turnout in Saxony and Thuringia was notably higher than in the 2019 elections, signaling an uptick in political engagement that likely reflects the electorate’s perception of the heightened stakes.
Turnout rose from 66.6% to 73.5% in Saxony and was up from 64.9% to 73.5% in Thuringia. The AfD reportedly benefitted from a surge of support from young voters.
Saxony: tight race with a clear message
In Saxony, the overall result was particularly close, with the center-right CDU narrowly edging out the AfD 31.8% to 30.8%. Despite the tight margin, the broader political picture has significantly realigned.
The traditional left-wing party, Die Linke, received just 4.5% of the vote while the Greens and SPD garnered 5.2% and 7.3%, respectively. The FDP won just 1% and so will not be included in the new parliament.
The current coalition of Christian Democratic Union, Greens and SPD no longer has a majority in parliament with the Left Party’s entry.
Usually, the left-wing party Die Linke would no longer be represented in parliament either, as a 5% vote threshold applies. However, a special provision in Saxony’s electoral law allows the party to enter parliament because it has previously won two direct mandates.
The newly formed Bundnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW), a split-off from Die Linke, also made a substantial impact, capturing 11.9% of the vote.
Wagenknecht, the spouse of former SPD chairman Oskar LaFontaine, campaigned as a “conservative” leftist, with strong opposition to mass migration as well as support for the Ukraine war.
This distribution highlights a critical point: The so-called “traffic light coalition” parties—the SPD, Greens and FDP—have seen their combined influence drastically reduced.
With only 12.5% of the vote between them, their position in Saxony has severely weakened, reflecting widespread voter dissatisfaction with their policies, particularly on migration and Ukraine.
In Saxony, the CDU’s prime minister campaigned strongly against further arms deliveries to Ukraine and called for peace negotiations to end the war.
These AfD and BSW share these positions. Over 70% of voters in the most important eastern German state voted in favor of politicians making similar calls on the Ukraine war.
The AfD and BSW also prioritized migration issues. Following the fatal knife attack in Solingen by an Islamist just over a week ago, the CDU has also prioritized this issue nationwide.
Thuringia: AfD by far the strongest force
The result in Thuringia was even more pronounced. The AfD emerged as the clear winner, capturing 32.8% of the vote (+ 9.4% compared with the last election), well ahead of the CDU’s 23.6%.
The leftist Die Linke, which has until now held the state’s prime minister position, managed just 13.1% (-17.9%), reflecting a dramatic decline in its support.
The SPD, Greens and FDP all performed poorly, with 6.1%, 3.2%, and 1.1% of the vote, respectively. Together, the coalition achieved only 10.4% in the eastern state.
The Greens and FDP will no longer be represented in the next parliament. The BSW received 15.8% of the vote. In Thuringia, too, the forces in favor of ending support for Ukraine and tighter migration policies made strong gains.
The traffic light coalition, meanwhile, turned in the worst result ever by a federal government in a German state election.
One of the best-known FDP politicians, Vice President of the German Bundestag Wolfgang Kubicki, wrote on X: “The election result shows that the traffic light has lost its legitimacy. If a significant proportion of the electorate refuses to support it in this way, there must be consequences.”
SPD leader Saskia Esken, on the other hand, was almost relieved by the result “because we were trembling.” Indeed, some opinion polls in the run-up to the election had suggested that the chancellor’s party might not make the 5% hurdle for representation in the state parliament.
The Greens are among the biggest losers. Previously part of the government in both states, they are now out of parliament in Thuringia and are unlikely to be needed to form a government in Saxony.
It will be very difficult to form a coalition in both states as all the other parties have ruled out joining hands with the AfD. However, because the AfD and the BSW have become so strong, it is almost certain that they will have to with one of these two forces. Until now, the CDU and SPD also ruled out coalitions with the BSW.
In the run-up to the elections, BSW’s chairwoman set a condition for her left-wing nationalist party to enter a coalition: It would have to oppose the deployment of US intermediate-range missiles at a federal level. Mainstream media have painted Wagenknecht as a Putin loyalist.
But unless the AfD joins the government, a majority cannot be achieved in Thuringia without the BSW. In Saxony, the only alternative would be a hypothetical of the notionally conservative CDU and Die Linke, the successor to the old East German Communist Party, including the SPD and Greens.
Cooperation between CDU, SPD and BSW would probably be more realistic.
Acts of political desperation
In the run-up to the state elections, the government made desperate attempts at political signaling. On Friday (August 30), the German government organized its first deportation flight to Afghanistan in three years, an apparent response to rising public outrage over random murders committed by Muslim immigrants.
Among the deportees were convicted Afghan criminals, including those charged with rape. The German government paid each of these criminals 1,000 euros to avoid potential legal problems.
One social media meme pilloried the government’s policy:
“Go to Germany illegally, get money from the state for doing nothing, rape a child, get a lawyer from the state, get your legal costs paid by the state, get a flight home from the state, get several years’ salary in pocket money from the state, and tell people at home what Germany pays you to be a rapist.”
The next state election in eastern Germany, in Brandenburg, is scheduled for this month and analysts predict it could deliver similar results for the AfD, BSW and traffic light coalition.
The pressure on the governing coalition is growing. With all three parties performing poorly, the situation could quickly become politically explosive. The FDP, in particular, is fighting for its survival.
In the medium term, the Greens will be weakened by the thematic shift among voters to migration and the nation’s recent poor economic performance.
In the Saxony and Thuringia elections, the Greens were voted out of two state governments. A CDU that focuses more on the issue of migration will hardly be able to push through changes in this area with the Greens. The BSW is also positioning itself as a clear left-wing alternative to the Greens.
Furthermore, the overwhelming support for the AfD, coupled with the significant gains made by the BSW, suggests that a large portion of the electorate in eastern Germany opposes the current administration’s approach to the Ukraine war. Within the coalition, the Greens and the FDP, in particular, support more, not less, military support for Ukraine.
Eastern Germany’s voters are demanding a shift in direction, one that the current government in Berlin will need to address if it hopes to regain trust and support in these crucial regions. However, the first signs are that change will not come from the coalition but only through the next national-level elections.