A remarkable political change is taking place as the Philippines prepares for crucial midterm elections on May 12.
President Ferdinand” Bongbong” Marcos Jr., once regarded as the crown prince of dynastic restoration, is now struggling, with his public approval rating dropping from 42 % in February to 25 % in March, according to a Pulse Asia Research poll.
In contrast, Vice President Sara Duterte, the daughter of former strongman leader Rodrigo Duterte, is rising in the electorate, up from 52 % in February to 59 % in March, according to the same poll.  ,
Rodrigo Duterte was detained and extradited to The Hague earlier this year on suspicion of crimes against humanity during his terrible war against medication.
While the global community praised the action as a step toward finding the cause of hundreds of extrajudicial killings that were not prosecuted, the public has had mixed feelings about it domestically.
The sight of a former leader being tried worldwide rather than at home has sparked nationalist hatred in some Filipinos, especially in Mindanao and Duterte hideouts across the Visayas.
It appears that Sara Duterte’s social standing has been strengthened by this European international intervention, which Marcos Jr.’s government supported and supported.
While avoiding his excesses, she deftly positions herself as the heir of her husband’s social cloak. And the symbolic significance of her defending national sovereignty has endeared her to a Filipino consumer who is sick of international morality and elite Manila politics.
The Marcos Jr. leadership is in a bind as a result. What was good intended to be a joyous moment of legal judgment has actually caused a backlash. In the eyes of some, the Hague trial is more about a condition that is extremely thought to be unstable and manipulated directly than Rodrigo Duterte.
The numerous causes of Marcos Jr.’s receding recognition are experimental and deeply felt on the ground. First, a cost-of-living problems is still afflicting regular Filipinos, with rising prices for basic utilities like rice, sugar, and sugar.  ,
Despite towering ambitions to bring about a “golden age of agribusiness,” Marcos, who dubiously took over as agriculture secretary, has utterly failed to tame inflation, smuggling cartel, or food security. His symbolic choice to reaffirm senior and agricultural authority, which was once seen as strong, now appears to be a lost gamble.
Next, critics claim that the Marcos administration has mastered gravity. They contend that the government’s ability to deal with ever-increasing crises has been hampered by cabinet factionalism, elite indolence, and growing policy contradictions.
Fears over corruption and political favoritism have hampered the launch of the Maharlika Investment Fund, which is regarded as a tool for national growth. It has become a symbol of how the Marcos leadership uses crooked old patterns to promote development.
Next, there are signs of domestic discord within the Marcos family. Senator Imee Marcos, the mayor’s girl, has officially distanced herself from Marcos Jr.’s important policies, including Maharlika and his apparent foreign military ties to China.
Their family divide has not been overlooked by municipal power brokers. More harmful, the Marcos exceptionalism narrative, which was revived during the campaign of 2022, has begun to crumble as a result of unfulfilled expectations and unsettled traditional issues.
This lack of confidence is not limited to Metro Manila’s shrieking groups. Local officials are beginning to hedge their bet with emerging camps close to Vice President Sara Duterte, with some slowly coordinating with the Ilocos Region’s once-Marcos Bastion.
Her approval rating of 58 %, which is twice as high as Marcos Jr., is a mistake. Sara has managed to distance herself from her husband’s milder democracy, while maintaining her Davao municipal roots.
Sara Duterte has avoided symbolic excess, in contrast to Marcos. Although she faced criticism at first, her performance as education secretary has stabilized, with focused opportunities in rural schools and education improvements receiving scant reward.
Her strength comes not only from her ability but also from her mental connection. Marcos tasks elitism and memories, but Duterte offers things more grounded.
Her social background in Davao and Mindanao give her integrity in a political climate where key Luzon and Metro Manila rulers frequently appear unfazed by regional issues and struggles, especially among the poor.
Over this week’s exams, the 2028 presidential poll looms large. With a growing alliance of rulers, leaders, and politicians rallying for her, the Trump camp is now positioning Sara as the ideal replacement for Marcos Jr. Marcos Jr. is legally only allowed to serve for a term of six years.
In the runoff election, Sara Duterte will control Congress and win the presidency’s race in the form of a dominant party. The Marcos Jr. camp, in contrast, increasingly seems to lack a comprehensive strategy.
Rumors of an Imee Marcos candidacy are already surfacing, with some claiming that a Marcos versus Duterte presidential clash is almost unavoidable in 2028.
If Imee doesn’t receive the approval from her family, there is still a sizable clan of Marcoses to choose from.
This bloodbath between Marcos and Duterte is more regional and ideological than just personal. The Marcos clan’s strength is primarily concentrated in the north, particularly Ilocos and parts of Luzon. On the other hand, the Dutertes have strong support in Mindanao and the Visayas and command the south.
The two dynasties have opposing narratives of national identity and governance, with one rooted in populist pragmatism and the other in aristocratic restoration.
And therein lies the waning political conflict. The Marcos-Duterte conflict shows no signs of settling, in contrast to previous political rivalries that eventually gave way to fragile coalitions.
Their main constituents are regionally isolated, emotionally invested, and distrustful in common. The conflict is generational, possibly even existential, and not just electoral.
Foreign actors, particularly the US and China, no longer appear peripheral, despite hypotheses that the opposite is true. General Romeo Brawner, the head of the Armed Forces of the Philippines ( AFP), issued a public warning about alleged Chinese political interference in the first few days of April.
Although no specifics are provided, the warning signaled a growing suspicion within the Philippine security apparatus that foreign powers might be able to exploit the country’s internal divisions, not least during this month’s midterm elections. Marcos Jr. is perceived as having a strong stance toward the US and the West, while the Dutertes lean toward China.
The May 12 midterm elections will also serve as a test of the nation’s resilience against both domestic fragmentation and foreign entanglement, in addition to being a referendum on Marcos ‘ leadership.
With only three years left, the Marcos presidency could turn into a lame duck if Sara Duterte’s allies win a majority in both the Senate and the Congress.
If the Marcos camp suffers significant electoral losses, it could lead to the collapse of a dynasty’s desire for complete recovery. The stakes couldn’t be higher in the upcoming polls, where family, memory, and vengeance will all play a significant role in a crucial vote.