Given the depth of hostility and enmity between the warring factions, the weak Gaza ceasefire between Israel and Hamas continues against all odds.
In exchange for some 400 Arab captives from Israeli jails, Hamas has released more than a few Jewish hostages since its enactment almost three weeks ago. More captives and prisoners are scheduled to be released during the majority of the first step of the truce if the procedure proceeds as easily as it has so far.
This is reason for a level of enthusiasm. However, negotiations over the size, words, and application of the second and third stages of the peace will turn out to be quite difficult.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, for example, has already declared the ceasefire to become “temporary”.
In exchange for lots of prisoners, all Jewish hostages, both alive and dead, are supposed to be freed during the next level. As a precursor to the restoration of the coastal area in the final stages of the ceasefire, Israel is also anticipated to remove all of its causes from Gaza.
There are many problems that may disrupt the process, two of which are important:
- Israel’s unattainable goal of putting an end to Hamas and establishing Gaza as a security for itself
- Hamas’s steadfast desire to restore its supremacy over Gaza.
Another issue is the effect of the new US president, Donald Trump. While Trump has allies with Netanyahu, it’s not clear how eager the US president is to escalate Middle Eastern hostility.
A meeting between the two in Washington this year may be crucial to the resolution of the ceasefire’s second stage or the restart of the Gaza battle.
Hamas ‘ life at conflict with Israel’s war seeks
Over the past 15 months of Hamas ‘ scorched-earth operations in Gaza, which Israel launched in response to Hamas ‘ attacks on October 7, 2023, Israel has undoubtedly degraded it. But, it has not eliminated the party.
The team’s survival is demonstrated by the well-armed and well-composed Hamas soldiers ‘ appearance during the choreographed three rounds of captive transfers in the regions Israel has destroyed.
It effectively indicates that Netanyahu and his radical supporters are unable to accomplish their main objectives, which are establishing a defense for release of the hostages.
The folly of using power as the only way to retaliate against Hamas is clearly demonstrated by Netanyahu’s approval of the ceasefire at this time.
He may have accepted the ceasefire much earlier, allowing for a quicker captive launch without more lives lost or more harm to Israel’s already tarnished reputation.
Hamas ‘ success means it is still a dangerous power, according to previous US Secretary of State Antony Blinken in the middle of January. He claimed that the organization has “recruited almost as many fresh insurgents as it has lost” during the conflict.
In addition, reviews claim that Hamas has continued to have control over Gaza’s security forces despite Israel’s attempts to wrest control of it.
If that is the case, Jewish citizens have the right to seriously question the leadership of the prime minister, who have been greatly divided between those who want the hostages to be freed through a ceasefire and those who support Netanyahu’s administration to continue the war.
The same applies to Israel’s inside supporters, especially the United States.
However, this may not occur. The war-makers does get over the serenity candidates. For Netanyahu and his backers, the task is not finished. Some experts believe that Hamas’s very existence will only increase their motivation to rekindle the conflict once all of the victims have been freed.
What does Trump want?
The future of the peace now seems to pivot on Netanyahu’s conference with Trump in Washington. The Jewish leader is interested to know where Trump stands on the second phase of the agreement before the conversations begin, according to reports in the media.
Trump just rebuffed his proposal to” certain out” the 2.3 million people of Gaza by moving them to Egypt and Jordan, despite a number of 1.5 million. Nothing more would please the extremists in Netanyahu’s fragile partnership, given the past claims of its leaders, than a depopulated and annexed Gaza.
Cairo and Amman, as well as other Muslim countries, have strongly rejected the idea. Hamas and the ailing Arab Authority in the West Bank have unwaveringly condemned it.
Trump has argued that the Egyptian and Syrian leaders will ultimately change because of US support, probably because they rely heavily on American aid each year.
If this scenario were to occur, it may lead to more hostilities and bloodshed in the Middle East as well as more international support for the Palestinian cause and the two-state option.
While there is still hope for the continuation of the peace and the completion of the next phase of the stalemate, it is still possible that Netanyahu will engage in military action to annihilate Hamas and annex Gaza in the manner that Trump has suggested.
The Jewish leader might even be able to declare West Bank independence because of the strong relationship between Trump and Netanyahu.
Given these risks, the next phase of the stalemate regarding the restoration of Gaza, which is estimated to be upward of , US$ 80 billion, is, at this point, nothing more than thoughts on a piece of paper.
At the Australian National University, Professor Amin Saikal is retired teacher of Middle Eastern and Central Asian research.
This content was republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original post.