The Ukrainians ‘ daring move to invade the Kursk area, led by Kiev, surprised Russia by a sizeable margin. But probably its most amazing feature is Vladimir Putin’s answer.
It might have been expected that Putin may react furiously to the first invasion of Russia’s country since the Second World War, given the Soviet government’s repeated assertions that losing its war with Ukraine would lead to the West breaking up Russia.
Considering the Russian president’s efforts to establish similarities between the Soviet Union’s struggle against Nazi Germany and Russia’s war against Ukraine, he likewise missed an obvious opportunity to brand Ukraine’s August 6 wonder unpleasant as the modern-day relative to Operation Barbarossa. In a damaging attack in June 1941, Nazi forces stormed across the northern borders of the Soviet Union.
Putin has played down the presence of Russian troops on Russian soil by taking a month to make his first public statement on the incident, calling on world in Russia to make sacrifices for the country and calling persuasive alarm bells.
Putin’s information to the Soviet people is that everything is under control and there is no need to worry, more than describing Ukraine’s deeds as the start of a novel and risky section in the battle.
Over the past month, the Russian armed forces have undoubtedly not been idle. As Russian troops fight in the Donbas region of Ukraine, the city of Pokrovsk, a transport hub with strategic significance, continue to attack and even increase, while Russian forces in that region are moving forward in their efforts to seize the city.
All of these responses, however, are effectively business as usual for the way that Russia has been fighting its war on Ukraine. However, this tactic does not result in a victory for Russia.
Moscow still has no control over the Ukrainian territories it annexed and claims as its own, and Putin’s” special military operation” that was supposed to win over all of Ukraine in just three days is well into its third year.
Russia’s style of war is very wasteful of human life. Since Russia’s massive invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, according to the UK Ministry of Defense, it has lost more than 600,000 lives to its armed forces.
Russia’s military struggles to find enough men to fill those who have been lost despite regularly raising the pay and benefits offered to anyone who wants to enlist.
Combat injuries
Russian troops are reportedly being recalled to the front lines after recovering from serious combat wounds, according to reports. Soldiers walking into battle are depicted in these images as using crutches. Young conscripts who are completing their year of compulsory military service are many of the soldiers trying to stop and reverse the progress of the Ukrainian forces in Kursk.
Russia’s reliance on inexperienced troops with scant training to defend its border with Ukraine is an indication that its forces are stretched thin.
And there are now labor shortages in Russia outside of the war zones. Russia’s factories are open all day and pay high wages to attract the best workers, but the lack of skilled workers is putting strain on both the military and civilian economies.
This results in a shortage of bus drivers, shop and factory workers who serve the daily needs of communities, as well as threats to Russia’s ability to produce weapons to use against Ukraine.
The Kremlin could have seen the Ukrainian invasion as an emergency and a chance to use previously untapped resources from Russian society to fill these shoals in the war effort.
The Ukrainians ‘ occupation of Russian territory might have served as a justification for a fresh round of military mobilization to bolster the army’s ranks. Additionally, it might have been appropriate to pass new legislation to permit the state to direct labor resources toward the areas of the economy in greatest need.
Governments have used this kind of measure during conflicts. For instance, during the second world war, women in Britain were required to register for conscription and could be assigned to either factories or the fields.
Putin’s big opportunity?
So why did Putin miss out on such a rare opportunity to both enhance his chosen narrative about the character and significance of Russia’s war in Ukraine and to entice more members of Russian society to bear its costs?
The Levada Center, Russia’s only remaining independent polling body, has a recent interview with sociologist Alexei Levinson, who may have provided the answer. In response to Russia’s war in Ukraine, Levinson described Russian society as emotionally numb.
Most Russians, in Levinson’s opinion, prefer to ignore the conflict and continue living their lives as if it were n’t occurring.
Putin may have chosen to downplay the invasion of Ukraine into Russia’s territory because he feared that Russian society would not respond to a wider plea for support.
A leader of the nation’s country would have been deeply humiliating, perhaps even more humiliating than an invasion by foreign forces would have been.
Whatever Putin himself really thinks, he appears to realize that the majority of his fellow citizens disagree with his claim that the conflict in Ukraine is an existential conflict for Russia.
Although few Russians are publicly and actively opposed to the war, in part due to the danger of fines and imprisonment, Levinson’s research suggests that their support is passive and might not be able to be made to make significant personal sacrifices.
Putin might find it harder to isolate a large portion of Russian society from the effects of this war the longer it lasts.
Jennifer Mathers is senior lecturer in international politics, Aberystwyth University
This article was republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.