As EARLY TO ANNOY A PRABOWO SUCCESS
It is still too early to say that he will unquestionably win the presidency in the first round for at least two factors, despite the main experts ‘ estimates.
First of all, a ballot is just that—a small sample of respondents used to forecast the tastes of the entire population.
It is unlikely that reliable polling institutions like Indikator and LSI have gotten their techniques wrong based on their performances thus far. Instead, they have taken every precaution to obtain the most precise benefits.
However, because electors are so erratic, they might not be able to accurately represent the larger image.
A national survey is only an accurate snapshot based on a small sample of voters, in contrast to what crime theorists may imply about the reliability of polling places in Indonesia. There is a margin of error because of this.
Consider Indikator’s forecast of the Prosperous Justice Party ( PKS) support in the upcoming legislative election. Indikator predicted that the PKS may get 6 % of the voting nationwide a few weeks before the poll. In the end, the group received 8.21 %.
Indikator’s prediction was accurate to within the margin of error of 2.9 %, indicating that the model functioned as intended.
PKS is in favor of Anies in this year’s vote. Anies ‘ share of the votes may actually be higher than what the polls show because PKS voters are concentrated in a number of places. As a result, Prabowo’s full vote may differ enough to stop him from winning the election handily.
Furthermore, even at this point, a sizable portion of voters ( about 5.78 percent nationally and 12.1 percent in East Java ) still have unresolved preferences.