HONG KONG: Following COVID-19 at the start of 2023, Hong Kong was one of the last states in the world to resume. The ensuing financial treatment was softer and short-lived than anticipated. The city may not regain its pre-pandemic luster due to a combination of fundamental and cyclical factors, such as geopolitical unrest and global monetary policy.
Hong Kong’s personal use increased throughout the year, but imports and exports remained subpar. Tourism and investment investments have also been underwhelming. Visitor visitors were only 65 % of their 2018 level nine months after the opening. The commodity markets in Hong Kong are in similar challenging situations.
Personal property prices briefly increased at the start of the year but quickly lost momentum and fell in the second half, falling by about 5 % from year to date. Even as the S&, P 500 in the United States increased by about 25 % the same year, the Hang Seng Index fell by more than 15 % in 2023 and appears to be decoupled from the global market.
In the first quarter of 2023, Hong Kong stocks reached a four-year small with an average business of just US$ 14 billion. Problems that Hong Kong has lost its luster as an global economic center were raised when money raised from initial public offerings cratered to a 20-year low during the same time period.
In light of this, the government reduced its most recent quarterly GDP forecast from over 4.5 percent to just 3.2 %.
STRUCTURAL AND CYCLICAL FACTORS
Both seasonal and structural factors contributed to Hong Kong’s underwhelming post-pandemic economic performance. On the continuous side, rising regional interest rates as a result of US Federal Reserve rate increases made real estate an undesirable investment. Due to Hong Kong’s robust local currency, locals prefer to shop abroad while visitors find the city to be expensive.
Hong Kong is a victim of political tensions between the United States and China on the fundamental front. Trade relations between the two markets have decreased as a result of trade restrictions and tech restrictions, and more goods are now being rerouted around Hong Kong through next nations like Vietnam and Mexico.
Geopolitical unrest might have wider effects than just business. As a gate to and from island China, Hong Kong enjoyed long-term success. Hong Kong’s reputation as an East-meets-West hub has been fueled by financial services, buying and logistics, hospitality, and specialized services. Any departure from this agreement could pose a city-wide existential threat.
The significant wage and price difference between Hong Kong and the nearby city of Shenzhen is a significant structural component. For a fraction of the cost, Hong Kong residents can then access roughly comparable service nearby.
Residents of Hong Kong will continue to benefit from cheaper services and goods near as their economy more tightly integrates with the area, despite government initiatives to revitalize local businesses like the Night Vibes Hawaii campaign.