PRAGMATISM ATTENDS REVENUES
Tellingly, some people worry that ASEAN could turn into a “arena of significant power competitors” and that its members might turn into “major energy proxies.” The mutual tariffs started as a trade conflict between the US and China, but they quickly spread to other countries that merely adhered to the” business imbalance” narrative, particularly emerging markets like ASEAN.
Analysts have predicted recession risks to be higher than 60 % as a result of the very aggressive tariffs, which are a common baseline of 10 % for all, including trade surplus nations like Singapore, and additional costs that are a little disproportional to the trade imbalances. Some economists anticipate adding prices, poverty, and inequality to their forecasts.
Unsurprisingly, the bilateral tariffs will probably cause Southeast Asia to distrust US citizens, opening up space for other significant powers to replace them. Prior to Liberation Day, 46.5 percent of the ISEAS survey respondents identified “new US leadership” ( i .e., Mr. Trump ) as their top geopolitical concern, up from 18.8 percent in 2024, which cited the” 2024 US presidential elections” as a source of concern.
Southeast Asians have shifted their views on proper positioning and trust in them regarding global free trade over the past two years between the US and China.
Most Southeast Asians voted with China in 2024, but the US replaced them this year ( 52.3 percent vs. China’s 47 % ) in the poll. In 2024, Southeast Asians had the highest level of confidence in the US’s commitment to the global free trade agenda, but this dropped to China in 2025 ( 20.6 % versus US’ 19 % ).
This demonstrates that Southeast Asia has become more flexible in terms of which big authority it prefers, motivated more by expediency than fidelity.
Ironically, just three ASEAN nations had a culture in which the US was viewed negatively. These three nations also have the highest perceived commitment to ASEAN, which could help to create a compromise there.