THE 2028 Political Culture
The goal of the votes in the Philippines next year will no doubt have short- and medium-term repercussions for the state ’s politics.
Second, if all nine of the Senate individuals backed by the Marcos management win, they would increase his alliance of supporters in the room. This alliance may therefore vote to convict Sara Duterte when her prosecution situation moves to a Senate test.
If she’s convicted, she may get banned from running for president in 2028. But it ’s ambiguous if two-thirds of legislators would voting to convict – the level required for prosecution. Some pro-Marcos and separate lawmakers may be afraid of antagonising dedicated Duterte followers.
If Sara Duterte is acquitted, this would probably only increase her bid for the presidency.
The ICC’s pre-trial room may hold a hearing in September that will be watched carefully by pro- and anti-Duterte troops in the Philippines. On May 8, the room rejected a complaint filed by Duterte’s military team to pardon two courts over alleged partiality.
His loyal supporters will likely improve their assaults against the ICC, the subjects of Duterte’s medication war, and the Marcos management through the use of fake information and disinformation as the trial advances.
If Duterte is convicted by the judge prior to the 2028 poll, it will certainly be used as a campaign issue by both sides, too. And this will only further aggravate polarisation in the Philippines.
Noel Morada is from Chulalongkorn University in Bangkok, Thailand, where he is visiting teacher at Nelson Mandela Centre and research fellow at Asia Pacific Centre for the Responsibility to Protect. This remark initially appeared on The Conversation.