KINMEN, Taiwan– The Shun Da was kilometers off program. Authorized by China’s Maritime Safety Administration to , excavate the seafloor , for a new gate near Xiamen, the Taiwanese- marked vessel was rather buzzing the Chinese coast guard on Taiwan’s Dadan Island, about 16 kilometers to the southwest.
A Chinese tourist boat guide a blogger through the constrained lake and within a few hundred feet of the Shun Da’s harsh, Asheng, a deckhand, said,” It’s never supposed to be here. ” But it happens all the time“, he added.
As the People’s Liberation Army wrapped away two days of military exercises around Taiwan next month, which China’s military called a , “dress rehearsal”  , for a complete- scale assault, the self- governing island’s leaders were focused abroad: On the margins, in the dark spaces where Beijing’s “gray zone” tactics slowly encroach on Chinese sovereignty.
One senior government official who spoke on condition of anonymity said,” It has become a regular reality that we have to deal with,” given the seriousness of the situation. ” Not just the military drills and exercises but near daily encroachment” into Taiwan’s airspace, sea lanes and even its politics.
China is advancing more aggressively, making it harder to see than kinetic tactics but no less threatening. As Taiwan’s new president, Lai Ching- te – William Lai – , seeks to maintain a delicate peace across the Taiwan Strait, China is doubling down on efforts to wage political, cognitive and maritime assaults.
Its goal? To upend the status quo without firing a shot, claim observers.
” The Chinese communists ‘ pressure on Taiwan is all- encompassing, especially diplomatically”, Taiwanese Foreign Minister Lin Chia- lung , said recently. The Chinese communists are still attempting to alter the status quo, according to wikipedia. They are creating a new normal, pressing on at every stage, trying to nibble away and annex (us )”.
One instance of that nibbling is The Shun Da’s unlicensed passage through Taiwanese-controlled waters. There are countless others.
Scholars from the Taiwanese military-affiliated Institute for National Defense and Security Research, a Taiwanese military-affiliated think tank, presented a half-dozen gray zone tactics that China frequently employs to repress Taiwan’s sovereignty during a briefing to journalists last month. These actions fall just below the threshold of a conventional conflict. These include economic coercion, critical infrastructure sabotage, harassment by drone and boat, and cyberattacks.
Beijing even wages” cognitive warfare”, disinformation campaigns meant to shape public opinion in China’s favor. Favorite topics include casting the United States as an unreliable partner to drive a wedge between Taipei and Washington, and branding Taiwan’s leaders” separatists” intent on declaring Taiwanese independence.
” We are certainly seeing an increase in gray zone activities, and we’re probably going to keep seeing more and more intrusions closer and closer to Taiwan, with a view to sending a signal that the Lai administration cannot defend Taiwan’s sovereignty”, said J Michael Cole, a Taipei- based security analyst.
” The danger in this is that the closer they get, the more traffic there is, the higher the possibility at some point of miscommunication, collision, or accidents. Then, that could cause a lot of escalation. I have no idea how China would de-escalate in that kind of a situation.
Incidents of gray zone incursions have spiked in recent months, as Chinese spy balloons, drones and civilian boats have traversed Taiwanese- controlled , territory. Two people were killed when a Chinese fishing boat pursued by Taiwan’s coast guard capsized in February, raising tensions. China’s coast guard made an apparent retaliation by inspecting a tourist boat in Taiwan close to Kinmen a day later.
Incursions have continued in the month since President Lai’s inauguration. A Chinese man was detained last week after being caught piloting a motorboat into a harbor at the mouth of the Tamsui River, which leads to Taipei’s capital. According to military observers, these incidents are meant to put Taiwan’s defenses to the test and make the island’s response impossible.
Taiwan is a renegade province and an integral component of the People’s Republic, according to China. While Taiwan was never under PRC control, Beijing has vowed to “reunify” Taiwan, by force if necessary.
Yet a kinetic war would be costly. Bloomberg Economics estimates war over Taiwan would erase some US$ 10 trillion, roughly 10 %, from the global economy. Given the stakes, gray zone warfare may be more appealing.
Beijing could use such tactics, led by its coast guard and law enforcement, to simply quarantine Taiwan, according to a recent report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington DC-based think tank. Taiwan and its allies would have to work against blocking access to even one port, like Kaohsiung in the south.
The possibility of such scenarios has received little attention, but in the short run, a quarantine is more likely than an invasion or a military blockade, according to the report. Additionally, it would raise questions about how Taiwan and the world can effectively respond.
The best defense of China’s actions, according to Taipei’s leaders, is to increase defense spending and strengthen ties with allies. ” We need to increase our arsenal …and learn from Ukraine”, said Wang Ting- yu, a senior lawmaker for Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party. ” Enough is never enough. We need to]strengthen ] our indigenous capacity”.
On the frontline island of Kinmen, where the Shun Da recently sliced through Taiwan’s restricted waterways, concern over China’s moves is more muted.
Officials here speak of cooperation with China, Kinmen sits just a few kilometers off the mainland’s coast. On day two of Beijing’s recent military exercise, Kinmen County’s deputy mayor was visiting China to discuss a cross- Strait swimming competition.
” Do I worry about a Chinese invasion? Of course I worry”, said the deputy mayor, Li Wen- Liang. However, we should n’t shut down the communication channels we’ve constructed out of fear.
Ahming, a tanned, white- bearded Taiwanese fisherman in Kinmen, was even more relaxed. He claimed that his work has been largely impacted by China’s recent activities in the gray zone.
Chinese trawlers are no longer entering Taiwan’s waters in large numbers because the Taiwanese coast guard regularly patrols the waters where he fishes, he claimed.
After a day at sea, Ahming deftly untangled his fishing net,” I do n’t think China is as bad as people think.” ” They’re always taking an inch, giving an inch. If they really want to use force, we can do nothing”.
Greg C Bruno is a journalist, editor and author of” Blessings from Beijing: Inside China’s Soft- Power War on Tibet”. He serves as the project manager for the Taiwan Reporting Project.