The subtle start of a cutting-edge underwater by China highlights its growing desire to dominate under in the increasingly strained lakes of the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea.
This quarter, Naval News reported that a Chinese factory in Wuhan launched a new innovative non-nuclear underwater, marking a major advance in China’s maritime skills.
Naval News reports that Tom Shugart, a marine professional, revealed the submarine in July after its untold start in April 2024, which is larger than its successors and features novel X-form rudders.
Significantly, the source says the vessel may include a vertical launch system (VLS ) for missiles, a feature uncommon in non-nuclear submarines. This improvement may increase the submarine’s fight potential by allowing it to have anti-ship ballistic missiles or property attack missiles.
Naval News mentions that the ship’s pattern suggests it is a variant of the Type-039A-C Yuan group, now in company with the People’s Liberation Army–Navy ( PLA-N). The report says the secrecy surrounding the release and the ship’s features reflects China’s quiet approach to martial progress.
The development of this submarine, if confirmed to have a VLS, may challenge the perception that China’s standard underwater force is only of local relevance, according to Naval News, indicating a potential increase in China’s growing marine might.
This month, Asia Times reported that China’s fresh submarine’s X-form steering suggests substantial improvements in agility and stealth features, which are essential for businesses in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea.
Despite China’s ability to produce nuclear submarines, standard boats are the focus of a proper plan that is customized to meet the specific needs of China’s maritime environment.
The PLA-N submarine fleet is anticipated to grow significantly according to estimates from the US Department of Defense ( DOD ), with estimates predicting an increase of 65 units by 2025 and 80 units by 2035.
This development is attributed to China’s expanding underwater building capacity and the addition of superior anti-ship cruise missiles to regular submarines.
In an article from October 2019 Trials, Victor Sussman mentions that adding VLS to submarines makes them more effective at battling well-defended area combatants.
Sussman points out that the USS Olympia successfully used a submarine-launched anti-ship cruise missile ( SLASCM) during the Rim of the Pacific 2018 naval exercise, underscoring the strategic value of stealthy submarines as potent ASCM platforms.
He mentions that the possibility of integrating VLS-compatible missiles may significantly increase the size of the underwater volley, giving a military benefit in absorption attacks. Such missiles currently in Chinese service include the YJ-18 ASCM, CJ-10 land attack cruise missile ( LACM), and the YJ-83 ASCM.
Sussman emphasizes the value of quantitative superiority in salvo exchanges, arguing that higher salvos increase the chance of thwarting enemy units.
He points out that the future of underwater warfare is on the verge of transformation, with VLS-armed submarines positioned to offer more potent first strikes and sustain a military advantage in the increasingly contentious maritime domain.
China’s rapidly expanding regular underwater fleet makes it able to launch complicated blockades and first strikes, which could alter the balance of a Taiwan conflict and complicate allied intervention.
Gabriel Collins and Andrew Erickson make the claim in a Baker Institute report this month that China’s regular submarines would be a key player in establishing sea power and putting proper tension on Taiwan and its allies in a potential discord over Taiwan.
In addition to securing communication lines, Collins and Erickson suggest that stealthy submarines could be crucial in isolating Taiwan and preventing foreign intervention.
They say China’s submarines could disrupt Taiwan’s supply movement and enhance its anti-access/area denial ( A2/AD ) strategy, making it harder for the US and its allies to intervene effectively in the Taiwan Strait.
In an article for the Naval Association of Canada in October 2023, Edward Feltham mentions that China’s conventional submarines in the South China Sea are crucial to the implementation of a sea denial strategy within the First Island Chain.
Feltham says that the PLA-N’s modernization has significantly focused on enhancing the capabilities of its diesel-electric submarines ( SSKs ), such as the Yuan-class, which are equipped with advanced Air-Independent Propulsion ( AIP ) systems.
He points out that submarines are made for use in the shallow, tense waters of the South China Sea, where stealth and endurance are extremely advantageous.
He argues that these submarines’ primary function would be to stop adversaries from establishing control of crucial maritime areas by launching anti-ship cruise missiles and torpedoes on enemy ships.
Additionally, Feltham mentions that they could be used to conduct covert operations, gather intelligence, and conduct surveillance, giving China a potent deterrent and active engagement tool.
Regional powers are rapidly bolstering their underwater capabilities as China’s submarine fleet grows to the point where it can impose itself in its adjacent waters, setting the stage for an underwater arms race.
Christopher Woody mentions that countries across the Indo-Pacific region are putting more emphasis on undersea warfare capabilities in a June 2024 article for Breaking Defense in response to China’s rapid military modernization, particularly its expanding submarine fleet.
Woody claims that Taiwan’s release of its first domestically produced Hai Kun-class submarine, with the assistance of undisclosed foreign partners, represents a significant step in its efforts to strengthen its defenses against potential Chinese aggression.
He notes that the diesel-electric Hai Kun is equipped with torpedo tubes for Mk 48 torpedoes and Harpoon anti-ship missiles, and future models may include submarine-launched anti-ship missiles.
Furthermore, he says Japan continues to showcase its shipbuilding prowess by commissioning its latest Taigei-class diesel-electric attack submarine, the JS Jingei, featuring stealthier designs, enhanced sensors, and lithium-ion batteries for improved endurance.
Likewise, he notes that South Korea’s new ROKS Shin Chae-ho, part of the Dosan Ahn Changho class, boasts advanced features like domestically developed fuel cells and an AIP system, enhancing its submerged operational capacity.
Woody mentions that Southeast Asian countries are also increasing their submarine capabilities. He notes that Singapore launched the last of its Invincible-class diesel-electric submarines, designed for the region’s unique maritime environment.
He adds that steps have been taken by the Philippines and Indonesia to buy new submarines, which is in line with a growing trend of regional militaries investing in underwater assets as a tactical hedge against geopolitical uncertainty and keeping parity with neighboring fleets.
He points out that this mass accumulation of submarines highlights the strategic significance of undersea warfare in a region with a high priority for sea access. These submarines, in Woody’s opinion, act as a deterrent and counterbalance China’s expanding naval force.
Woody also points out that this trend highlights the importance of submarines as both a naval prestige and as a defensive measure in the Indo-Pacific.