In New Zealand and Australia, the presence of three Foreign naval vessels that fired live rounds in the Tasman Sea sprang out in a sense of concern. However, the actual event has more to do with the political context than the real situation.
In reality, the Chinese navy has basic freedoms on the high lakes and is permitted to perform exercises in the Tasman. China’s behavior so much seems to be in line with both the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea and the Code for Unplanned Encounters at Sea.
There was no commitment to provide this, despite the fact that New Zealand would have preferred to be given more details about the objectives of the Chinese navy.
The Tasman’s current situation is not at all comparable to the more ferocious saber-rattling the Chinese government has exhibited around the South China Sea, most lately involving both the American and Spanish navies.
And in September of last year, the Chinese tested a nuclear-capable international weapon into the South Pacific just a few weeks after Australian and New Zealand warships sailed through the Taiwan Strait.
For China, of training, Taiwan and parts of the South China Sea are greatly disputed territory. The Tasman Sea is no. But what is disputed is China’s position and control in the Pacific – and this, rather than a small marine workout, is what is causing problems in Canberra and Wellington.
The Cook Islands issue
The instant context for that problem is the surprise contract signed by the Cook Islands and China two fortnight before, which aims to “deepening orange economy cooperation.”
The agreement steers clear of contentious topics like surveillance and security. But it moves Chinese control into infrastructure support for quay, manufacturing and maintenance, and sea travel.
How this opens the South Pacific up to yet greater Chinese control and exercise is what really challenges New Zealand’s international policy. Winston Peters, the foreign secretary, has indicated that a new arrangement needs to be established.
China has argued for its part that its connection with the Cook Islands “is not directed against any next party and should not be subject to or disrupted by any third group.”
In other words, China has advised New Zealand to ignore a significant growth in its previously friendly diplomatic and political ties to its Pacific cousin.
A Chinese personal purpose?
All of this is occurring within a fast altering sociopolitical context. Another main powers like Russia and China are adapting, and US President Donald Trump is formally trying to upend the aged US-led world order.
New Zealand’s relations with China were now difficult. State-sponsored Chinese intervention in domestic politics, political system breaches, and other destructive computer activity have been identified by the Security Intelligence Service and the Government Communications Security Bureau.
The key question is then whether China’s subsequent actions have led to an own goal. The same may now be more probable, despite the fact that it might like New Zealand to have a more independent foreign policy that balances its relations with East and West.
New Zealand has always tended to work harder and to develop stronger ties with its classic allies in times of global stress and uncertainty.
Whether it is the concern of Russian war in the 19th centuries or Chinese invasion in the 20th century, and whether or not those dangers are actual or imagined, New Zealand returns to form.
It has been doing this for almost 150 ages, and it’s likely to happen once more. New Zealand is now pondering how to react to the restored global system from the Trump administration and will be looking for ways to bolster the friendship.
The government then appears to be enticed to a new arms race and to boosting defence spending as a percentage of GDP. Additionally, it may be much easier to socially buy the rumored advantages of joining the next level of the AUKUS security pact.
Alexander Gillespie is professor of law, University of Waikato
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