The most recent conflict in the South China Sea, in which Chinese maritime forces were forced to board and disarm Asian military personnel during a resupply mission, has strained the country’s once-unified administration and exposed fault lines.
According to what available information, the most recent Philippine rotation and resupply ( RoRe ) mission to the disputed Second Thomas Shoal, which sits a de facto Philippine military base atop the stricken BRP Sierra Madre vessel, was not coordinated by relevant government agencies.
The Philippine government’s contradictory statements following the unprecedented incident, which could have easily sparked an armed conflict after a Filipino serviceman lost a thumb in the melee, have highlighted divergent opinions at the highest levels of government regarding how to deal with China’s growing assertiveness in the nation’s Exclusive Economic Zone ( EEZ ).
The newly established National Maritime Council’s executive director, Lucas Bersamin, generally dismissed the tragedy as “probably a mistake or an incident” despite various best officials’ powerful words blaming it with details that were trickling in after days of delay.
Soon after, Philippine Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro Jr, yet, insisted that the government was not downplaying the “aggressive and improper usage of power” by China. He maintained that what took place was” ]a ] deliberate act of the Chinese officialdom to prevent]the Philippines ] from completing]its ] mission”.
Social divisions in the face of a political crisis are certainly not new to the Philippines, which is known for its chaotic and contentious democracy.
Filipino legislators publicly criticized the country’s political handling of the Scarborough Shoal problems, which led to China’s de facto annexation of the South China Sea.
During Rodrigo Duterte’s polarizing presidency, who openly criticized China’s proper favoritism while criticizing European allies over historical and human rights-related issues, there were also political and ideological divisions at play.
Duterte and even his own political allies in the then-governing PDP-Laban group fought at one point, most notably Manny Pacquiao, a former legislator who took a more vehement stance against China in the wake of the Whitsun Reef problems in 2021.
In the early times of his law, Marcos Jr., who ran and won easily on a “unity” system, managed to maintain a sense of coherence in his rates.
This was particularly true on the foreign policy before, as the Filipino president took a more confrontational attitude in the South China Sea, which was well-liked by both the Filipino populace and the protection establishment.
Over 90 % of Filipino voters favor a more assertive stance, including restoring control of the Philippine-claimed islands that are under the control of China, according to authoritative surveys.
Amid an uptick of nationalist sentiment, but, innovative politicians and optimistic officials, who were mostly motionless on Duterte’s pro- Beijing policies, began brandishing their patriotic credentials.
Members of Congress, the Senate, and different branches of the government began making extraordinary travel trips to disputed landmarks like Thitu Island, posing as patriotic leaders.
In addition, veteran politician Teodoro Jr., a long-time Duterte supporter who once offered to run for Sara Duterte for a possible joint solution in the 2022 primaries, took over the Department of National Defense.
He was given the same position by Duterte on numerous occasions while under the Gloria Macapagal Arroyo administration ( 2001-2010 ).
A quick and dramatic change in the world’s defence policy was overseen by Teodoro Jr., who was barely a year old when he was in charge of his old office. That included the introduction of the shown little interest in offering direct military support in response to China’s non-kinetic use of force, which seriously injured at least one Filipino service member, despite a tough re-election campaign and numerous geopolitical flashpoints across the Eurasian landmass.
Additionally, the most recent incident has confirmed earlier rumors of rifts between National Security Advisor Ano and Defense Secretary Teodoro Jr. within the Philippine security apparatus.
The Ano led by the National Task Force for the West Philippine Sea (NTF- WPS), but the most recent RoRe mission reflected the defense chief’s unilateral prerogative and did not fully coordinate with other organizations.
Some critics have suggested that this was likely motivated by Teodoro Jr.’s political ambitions, who may be considering running for office in the near future. Some commentators have cited the difficulty of repressing a powerful adversary like China and the real differences between top leaders.
Teodoro Jr. has openly questioned the wisdom of diplomatic relations with China on numerous occasions, a surprisingly hardline position that contrasts with other Cabinet members.
” It’s not fruitful. In one of his interventions last year, Teodoro Jr. said in reference to China that there should be bilateral discussions, but only when we can demonstrate that they are genuine and when we can be certain, that is is my personal belief.
He continued, underscoring his perception of a results-oriented diplomatic approach by saying,” It must be based on fundamental principles and it must be based on sincerity, that it shall not be used merely as a weapon in order to restrain the Philippines.”
Other senior government figures, in contrast, have stayed in the game of engagement, with Executive Secretary Bersamin most recently arguing that diplomatic solutions to recent conflicts between Manila and Beijing.
The” transparency initiative” of the government, which was spearheaded by the Philippine Coast Guard in collaboration with the National Security Council, has been a major sticking point for the government’s future and has consistently and loudly exposed China’s aggressive tactics in the disputed waters.
Analysts now wonder if the Marcos Jr. administration will change its name and slurp China’s aggressive tactics for a new mode of vivendi in the disputing regions, particularly in regards to resupply missions to the Second Thomas Shoal.
Meanwhile, the Marcos Jr. administration has been under pressure from Beijing-friendly organizations in the Philippines to change their course following the most recent incident. Most notable is Duterte’s criticism of his successor for unnecessarily escalating tensions with China by more closely aligning with US interests.
Duterte has claimed that his Beijing-friendly foreign policy succeeded in ultimately preserving an element of stability in the South China Sea despite asserting Philippine claims in the disputed areas.
” We did n’t have a conflict with China then. We were permitted to fish both inside and outside the area. No one was bothering us and there was no territory issue, Duterte claimed in a recent episode of his television show, pressuring Marcos Jr. to adopt a more cordial attitude toward China.
Follow Richard Javad Heydarian on X at @Richeydarian