MANILA – Barely a month after Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr’s visit to Beijing, his first official overseas trip as national leader, bilateral relations have taken a sudden and decided turn for the worse.
Days after the Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) reported a Chinese vessel used a laser weapon to blind its crew near the contested Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea, Marcos Jr summoned China’s top envoy to express Manila’s “serious concern” over the unprecedented incident.
Beijing’s efforts to downplay the incident, first by insisting Chinese coast guard (CCG) personnel behaved in a “professional and restrained” manner and then by accusing the Philippines of an “intrusion” into Chinese waters, has reportedly infuriated Philippine authorities.
The Philippine Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) has effectively accused Beijing of lying by pointing out the “lack of congruence” between China’s official statements and the actual facts at sea.
Former National Security Adviser Clarita Carlos, who is currently a top policy adviser to the Philippine legislature, has upped the ante by calling on the Marcos Jr administration to downgrade bilateral relations with China altogether over the incident.
Meanwhile, some Filipino experts have suggested the government should consider invoking its Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT) with Washington in response to what the PCG has described as “acts of aggression.”
Eager to de-escalate tensions, Chinese Ambassador to Manila Huang Xilian met with Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) Chief of Staff General Andres Centino.
Although both sides have underscored their shared commitment to “promote peace and stability in the region”, Philippine-China relations are likely headed for even rougher waters.
China is apparently peeved by the Marcos Jr administration’s decision to not only expand America’s access to strategic bases across the Philippines but also to pursue a Visiting Forces Agreement-style defense deal with Japan.
Later this year, the two allies will conduct their largest-ever joint military exercises in the Marcoses’ home province of Ilocos Norte.
For its part, Manila will likely further pivot towards traditional allies if China continues to expand its footprint across the South China Sea and claim territories in the Philippines’ EEZ.
In recent months, China has carefully pursued warm ties with Marcos Jr, who broadly backed his predecessor’s Beijing-friendly foreign policy during the presidential election campaign last year.
In fact, the new Filipino president chose China as his first major overseas destination ahead of traditional allies the US and Japan. In many ways, both sides underscored their commitment to ushering in a “new golden era” of bilateral relations.
Intent on keeping bilateral relations on an even keel, both sides carefully navigated Manila’s strategic ties with Washington. When United States Vice President Kamala Harris visited the Philippine island of Palawan, which lies close to the disputed Spratly group of islands, both Marcos Jr and Chinese officials downplayed the significance of the high-profile visit.
Ahead of Harris’ visit, the Filipino president confidently dismissed any potential effect on his relations with Beijing, since “[Harris] is in the Philippines and she is visiting another part of the Philippines. And of course, it is the closest area to the South China Sea, but it’s very clearly on Philippine territory, so I don’t think there should be… I don’t think it will cause any problems.”
During his meeting with Harris a few days later, Marcos Jr quipped, “I’m sure you’re just going to the resorts and the beaches” in the tourist hotspots of Palawan.
For its part, Beijing also adopted a measured position. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning clarified “[w]e are not against the US’s interaction with regional countries” as long as it’s “good for regional peace and stability and not damaging to other countries’ interest.”
Two months later, Marcos Jr visited Beijing, culminating in almost a dozen new cooperation agreements. The high-stakes trip, however, failed to produce any major breakthrough on outstanding issues related to their South China Sea disputes. The two countries could not agree on any concrete deals to de-escalate maritime tensions or/and jointly explore energy resources in disputed areas.
The Filipino president’s exasperation was fully on display days later when, during his address at the World Economic Forum in Davos, he admitted that maritime disputes with China “keeps you up at night, keeps you up in the day, keeps you up most of the time … It’s very dynamic, it’s constantly in flux so you have to pay attention to it.”
Earlier this month, the Filipino president took a fateful decision by greenlighting the “full implementation” of as well as granting expanded access to US troops under the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) in a bid to constrain China’s expanding footprint in adjacent waters.
The Philippines also hopes that the EDCA will serve as a springboard for the transfer of more advanced military hardware for the modernization of the Armed Forces of the Philippines.
China was clearly unimpressed by the expanded EDCA deal, which grants the US Pentagon access to a whole host of strategically-located bases near the South China Sea and Taiwan’s southern shores.
This is expected to go hand in hand with even larger and more numerous joint-military exercises between the two allies this year, with a growing focus on maritime security and joint responses to any contingencies in adjacent waters.
“China always holds that defense and security cooperation between countries should be conducive to regional peace and stability, not targeted against any third party, even less to harm the interests of a third party,” the Chinese embassy in Manila said in a strongly-worded statement.
“The United States, out of its self interests and zero-sum game mentality, continues to step up military posture in this region. Its actions escalate regional tension and undermine regional peace and stability,” the embassy added, warning the Philippines to “sta[y] vigilant and resist being taken advantage of and dragged into troubled waters.”
China was likely even more piqued by Marcos Jr’s decision to pursue major defense deals with Japan as part of a broader tripartite US-Philippine-Japan military pact.
The recent “laser incident” at the Second Thomas Shoal, which hosts a contingent of Filipino marines, has exposed the depth of what is now a deepening crisis in bilateral relations. Some in the Philippines believe that China’s latest actions in the South China Sea are meant as a warning against further expansion in bilateral military relations between Manila and Washington.
Traditional allies have backed the Philippines amid the ongoing crisis in the Second Thomas Shoal.
“The United States stands with our Philippine allies in the face of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) Coast Guard’s reported use of laser devices against the crew of a Philippine Coast Guard ship on February 6 in the South China Sea,” State Department spokesperson Ned Price said in a statement earlier this week.
For his part, Japanese Ambassador Koshikawa Kazuhiko expressed, over Twitter, his “serious concerns about dangerous [Chinese] behavior against [Philippine vessels,” and called Beijing to “respect maritime order based on international law, in particular the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Seas or UNCLOS, and recall that 2016 Arbitral Award is final and legally binding. We firmly oppose any action that increase tensions.”
Buoyed by the firm diplomatic backing of and new defense deals with the US and Japan, top Philippine officials have adopted tougher rhetoric than usual against China’s latest actions.
“We want to engage China as friends but as friends, we have to engage based on truth and goodwill. We have to have congruence with what is being said and what is being done in the waters and we want to actually build on the relationship, but this incident should not continue if we are to build on that,” said DFA spokesperson Ma Teresita Daza.
The recently-resigned National Security Adviser Carlos, who currently advises the Philippine legislature, has openly advocated for potentially recalling the Philippines’ ambassador to Beijing and downgrading bilateral relations to protest the laser incident.
Since last year, the Philippines has filed as many 203 notes verbales in response to China’s perceived as aggressive behavior in Philippine waters. The top policy adviser has underscored the need for “telegraph[ing] to them our deep concern about what they are doing and for them to stop it.”
Follow Richard Javad Heydarian on Twitter at @richeydarian