It’s too soon to tell whether Mr. Dong is secure or still in trouble, according to experts.
They point out that he does not have the same authority as his two predecessors, who also served as state commissioners and members of the CMC, giving them immediate access to Premier Li Qiang and Mr. Xi, both. Mr. Dong is not a member of either of these positions.
What is also unclear is Mr. Dong’s absence from new formal events, which are typically attended by a defence minister.
Due to his Dec. 5 looks, Mr. Dong made his final public appearance on November 21 when he addressed a group of Southeast Asian Nations defense ministers in Vientiane, Laos.
He chose to speak with US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin on the outside, citing US deeds in Taiwan, which the Pentagon head called terrible, but he declined. Mr Dong’s emergence from a visit to China by Singapore’s Chief of Defence Force Aaron Beng weeks afterwards also sparked debate.
While Mr. Dong’s emergence may indicate that he is currently healthy, observers say that it also depends on his part in the investigation into Mr. Miao’s disappearance.
Past analytical journalist-turned-commentator Cai Shenkun asserted in a Nov 11 post on social media app X that” since Admiral Dong Jun was promoted by Miao”, he may get “affected”.
Dr. Willy Lam, a top fellow at The Jamestown Foundation, cited rumors that Mr. Dong” spilled the beans on Miao Hua” as a see, leading to accusations that he may have avoided embarrassment.  ,
Dr. Lam told CNA,” It’s possible that Dong Jun will continue for a few times just for the sake of appearances.” ” The fact that Dong Jun reappeared, this has added an interesting aspect to the account”.
” For now, it seems his political coming remains secure”, said Mr Chen Shih-min, associate professor in the Department of Political Science at National Taiwan University, who signalled that his security could possibly consolidate, if he fills the vacuum in the CMC, as a member.
MIAO HUA: PAWN IN POWER STRUGGLE?
Despite the fact that Mr. Miao has been identified as having been in difficulties, observers have expressed concern about how the language used to describe his situation was different from what is customary.  ,
Wu Qian, a spokesman for the defense department, stated in a media briefing on November 28 that the CCP “has decided to suspend Miao Hua from duty pending exploration,” without providing more information about the allegations against him.
Some analysts pointed out how in announcing Mr Miao’s suspension, the Chinese term jiancha ( “inspection” ) was used instead of diaocha ( “investigation” ).
” If they use the proper name diaocha, it means more likely than not, according to the Chinese legal system, that he is already found guilty”. Jiancha, yet, is a “lighter term”, implying that Mr Miao “might never actually been given a long, serious prison term”, said Dr Lam.
National Taiwan University’s Mr Chen added:” Of course, it can also be interpreted as a somewhat liberal treatment of Miao Hua, and the reason for this could definitely be explained by the fact that Miao Hua is’ one of Xi Jinping’s really near allies.'”
However, Mr. Morris argued that easing the terminology does not affect Mr. Miao’s destiny, noting that the English announcement stated it was being investigated for a” serious violation of discipline.”
He continued,” The announcement that China has suspended Miao Hua from his job in a public manner is a clear indication that his career is over and that he will be placed under house arrest or worse.”
Additionally, there are disagreements over whether Mr. Miao’s suspension was the result of Mr. Xi’s intervention or that of rival factions opposed to the leader.