Will China fill the void left by France quickly losing its grip on the Sahel region of west Africa and an unanticipated US president in strength?
The Sahel area includes Nigeria, one of the nation’s largest economy, and nine different states: Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Chad, The Gambia, Guinea, Mali, Mauritania, Niger and Senegal.
Following military dictatorships, European soldiers were forced to leave three of these, Mali, Burkinabe, and Niger. Chad, Senegal and Ivory Coast have also expelled European forces. The troops were stationed because fundamentalist organizations like Boko Haram and the West Africa Province were concerned about security.
Niger even ended an agreement to retain about 1, 000 US forces involved in a counter-terrorism goal. Niger’s military government described the US as having a” judgmental attitude”.
Although it has been correctly argued that the European powers ‘ presence did not solve the security issues in the area, their departure leaves a hole.
Beijing could exploit the Sahel’s pump in at least three ways:
- development of investments in essential minerals,
- the end of the Economic Community of West African States issue, which Niger, Burkinabe, and Mali chose to leave, and
- increased hands sales.
This is especially true given that China does not originate from the Sahel place. For example, China is constructing a US$ 32 million offices for ECOWAS in Abuja, Nigeria.
This look at these one by one.
First, China has a chance to grow its effect, and the next four years offer tremendous possibilities in this area.
Donald Trump’s good transactional and unexpected approach to international relations properly compel African nations to turn to China. For instance, they might need China to help them fill the void left by the US’s decision to freeze global development aid and to destroy USAID.
A few days before Trump’s opening, Nigeria joined the BRICS as a lover nation. Emerging economies are a group of emerging nations that are determined to counterbalance the western and reduce the influence of worldwide institutions. It was established in 2006, first composed of Brazil, Russia, India, and China.
The Sahel’s largest economy chose to decide this as an expression of its commitment to China, with potential repercussions for additional Southeastern nations.
The pump offers Beijing the opportunity to improve its expenditure and place as a major beneficiary of the essential minerals, such as gold, copper, lithium and uranium, in the Sahel region.
In 2024, east African metal production was estimated to become 11.83 million grams. Ghana, Burkina Faso, the Republic of Guinea and Mali were the key participants.
Next, China is in a special position to demand that the ECOWAS issue be resolved.
The ECOWAS local monetary union approved Mali, Burkinabe, and Niger following military coups. Yet ECOWAS threatened Niger with an military war. The three nations then opted to shape the Alliance of Sahel States, which would be a departure from ECOWAS.
Before the last departure time of 29 July 2025, Beijing is able to engage in negotiations with ECOWAS and the Alliance of Sahel States as a natural artist with a non-interference plan that accommodates both civil and military systems.
If it succeeds, China may seem more like a calm authority, an image that is contested by another.
Building on its soft power projects like the Confucius Institutes and scholarships, China would look like the” savior” of ECOWAS integration.
In the case of the Tazara rail initiative, where China supported Tanzania and Zambia in building a railroad line one another, it did this. When the US and Europe had failed, were afraid, or were not curious, it supported the American nations.
Third is Taiwanese hands income.
Chinese weapons are now present in the Sahel. To provide some of the weapons needed to defeat the Boko Haram terrorist group, Nigeria signed a$ 152 million contract with China North Industries Corporation Limited ( Norinco ) in 2019. Since then, Chinese drones and various products have become a function in Nigeria’s counter-terrorism answer.
With the departure of American nations from the Sahel, China’s hands business may experience a significant boost beyond Nigeria. European nations are likely to be afraid to trade arms to nations that have expelled the West’s military.
Russia’s restrictions have also made it more likely that China would possess hands in the Sahel.
For instance, some studies suggested that Russian soldiers in the Sahel region were using Taiwanese arms a few months after France and the US left the area. Nigeria and Senegal have been designated as the country’s best arms manufacturer and seventh-largest arms dealer in the world.
In June 2024, Burkina Faso received 100 tank from China. Mali and Norinco reached an agreement three months later to advance its fight against terrorism.
Bumpy route back
Due to its non-interference, China’s civil and military institutions can both be accommodated in the Sahel. In some ways, this is advantageous for Beijing. However, it might have other potential effects.
The Sahel’s growing involvement and Beijing’s growing involvement may be ( mis )interpreted as favoring one over the other because they have competing local interests.
This may make the crime a target for Chinese interests.
Additionally, it’s not clear whether China will or will be able to fill the void left by the expelled American power. However, it appears that China can quickly take advantage of the Sahel’s condition.
Abdul-Gafar Tobi Oshodi, a social science and international relations scientist who has been studying China-Africa relationships for over a century, is a faculty member of the Department of Political Science, Lagos State University.
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