Flights cancelled as Storm Khanun hits South Korea

BUSAN: Hundreds of flights and high-speed trains were cancelled and businesses shuttered in the South Korean port town of Busan after Tropical Storm Khanun made landfall on Thursday (Aug 10), bringing heavy rain and high winds. The storm, which battered Japan before taking a circuitous route towards the Korean peninsula, madeContinue Reading

Will the US support armed intervention in Niger?

US Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland came to Niger and demanded to see the former president, currently under house arrest in the Presidential Palace. She was turned down and met with a few of the coup leaders in Niamey, Niger’s capital. 

She threatened that the US would stop providing aid to the country and demanded that the coup leaders restore the former president, Mohamed Bazoum, to power.

She left empty-handed but with the threat of military action looming, coming either from the ECOWAS countries (Economic Community of West African States) or from US and French troops in Niger – or even from both.

The US trained most of the leaders of the Niger coup and maintains a force of around 1,500 troops in the country. While Niger has asked France to remove its 1,100 soldiers, France has not complied. US troops have not been ordered out of the country, although that remains a possibility if the situation deteriorates further.

Victoria Nuland in Niger. Photo: Screenshot

Niger is one of the poorest countries in the world. Its main assets are uranium mines primarily owned by French companies.

These days Niger is also producing modest amounts of oil, around 14,000 barrels of oil a day, all of which is domestically consumed. Seventy percent of Niger’s electricity is supplied by Nigeria. Nigeria has halted the supply of electricity since the coup, according to news reports.

Niger’s main uranium mine, SOMAIR (Société des Mines de l’Aïr​), gets its electrical power from a local coal-burning generator facility. Niger accounts for around 5% of world uranium production (in the form of Yellowcake). 

But France is much more dependent with 20% of its uranium coming from Niger, its number two supplier. France’s top supplier is Kazakhstan. Uzbekistan is its number three supplier, just below Niger.

If Niger’s production is halted for any significant period of time, pressure will grow on other suppliers and uranium prices will likely increase. At present the French company Orano, which is the majority owner of SOMAIR, says that the mine is operating. Prices have ticked up a little but not dramatically.

Somaïr and Cominak Mines
SOMAIR mining. Photo: Orano

At present Niger’s airspace is closed. Roadways are blocked and imports of food, medicine and other supplies also are blocked. There is increasing concern that any sustained supply halt could trigger a humanitarian crisis.

ECOWAS has threatened military intervention but not all of the 15 members of ECOWAS favor military action.

The most germane threats to Niger come from the US and French contingents in the country and the potential for either or both to be reinforced. The US contingent in Niger falls under the authority of the US African Command (AFRICOM).

Officially the US military presence is based on 10 US Code 127e, which authorizes US military special operations to be used to combat terrorism. It does not authorize US forces to play any role whatsoever in the internal governance of a host country.

This poses a major problem for Washington, since it would have to declare a national security contingency. There is no conceivable national security contingency one can think of, and US troops are not threatened.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Nuland both have stated that one of their main concerns is the possibility of Russia’s Wagner forces moving into Niger. 

So far as is known, there are no Wagner forces in Niger at present, but Yevgeny Prigozhin, Wagner’s co-founder, who was recently active at the Russian Africa conference in St Petersburg, celebrated the coup d’état in Niger and, at least indirectly, has offered Wagner services to Niger.

Wagner currently has operations in Mali, Sudan, Central African Republic and Libya. Mali is a member of ECOWAS.  

Niger map. Source: Wikimedia Commons

Niger’s army is one of the poorest equipped in Africa. Its air force has only two jets (Russian-made Su-25s) and a handful of helicopters. The army relies heavily on Toyota trucks with guns mounted on them, although it has some armored personnel carriers.

Jihadist groups are operating in Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso in a tri-border region known as Liptako Gourma, the area adjacent to the River Niger bend between the cities of Gao (Mali) and Niamey (Niger). It includes the regions of Gao in Mali, Sahel in Burkina Faso and Tillabéry in Niger.  

Some jihadist groups are linked to al-Qaeda and others to ISIS while still others remain independent operators.

There are ethnic groups, also strict Islamists, that have threatened Niger in the recent past. One group is the Fulani or Fula people. They are, generally speaking, nomadic people and cattle herders, often conflicting with settled farmers fighting over grazing areas. In Niger they represent 3.6 million people.

The other ethnic group, which has staged at least two insurrections in recent years, is the Tuareg. The Tuareg are Berber people, also nomadic. Their population is about 2.6 million.

Rhissa Ag Boula. Image: Social Media

In the past few days an important Tuareg leader, who was rehabilitated by the previous two Niger governments, Rhissa Ag Boula, has come out strongly against the coup and has been demanding the restoration of the democratically elected government.

Whether Ag Boula can mobilize the Tuareg isn’t yet known but if he can it could pose significant internal problems for the military junta. He heads the Council of Resistance for the Republic and supports ECOWAS military intervention.

While the US supports democratically elected governments and their leaders, it would be difficult to justify armed intervention unless a real threat to US national security could be shown to exist.

US intervention would also seriously damage US credibility in Africa and elsewhere in the world as it would be seen as just another colonialist operation against a poor nation. If it were carried out in partnership with France, it would be even worse.

Washington will have to make a decision: to line up with Blinken and Nuland, both interventionists, or to act more sensibly and let Africans sort this out for themselves.

Stephen Bryen is a senior fellow at the Center for Security Policy and the Yorktown Institute. This article was originally published on Weapons and Strategy, his Substack. Asia Times is republishing it with permission. 

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China says US investment policy ‘severely disrupts’ global supply chains

BEIJING: Beijing on Thursday (Aug 10) said a new US policy to restrict investment in Chinese technology “severely disrupts the security of global industrial and supply chains”. An unnamed Ministry of Commerce spokesperson said President Joe Biden’s executive order “seriously deviates from the market economy and fair competition principles theContinue Reading

Out-of-state voters play key role in determining Kelantan’s government in upcoming election

OPPOSITION OPTIMISTIC

The opposition in the state, however, holds a contrasting view.
 
They said many who have left Kelantan are losing faith in the PAS government, particularly as the state grapples with challenges such as the long-standing water and sanitation crisis, poor infrastructure, and limited employment.

Led by the Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition, which is part of Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s federal unity government, the opposition said it hopes Kelantanese who are living elsewhere will travel home to vote and help make a real difference.

“We hope they will consider what we’re offering and think about how things are for them now,” said Mr Zawawi Othman, BN Kelantan’s information chief.

“They need to think if they want their younger siblings, who are still in school, to go through the same challenges, leaving behind their parents and their home state – a place that’s not really moving forward.”

Nonetheless, observers said it is an uphill battle for the opposition to wrest the state from the incumbent PAS.

On the ground, anticipation and energy has continued to build from both campaigning politicians and voters, setting the stage for a decisive showdown when Kelantan goes to the ballot boxes on August 12.

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Pakistan: Election delayed in latest political crisis

Ceremonial troops saluting during Pakistan National Day military paradGetty Images

Pakistan’s parliament has been formally dissolved, but polls meant to be held within 90 days will likely be delayed.

The electoral commission says electoral boundaries must be redrawn to reflect fresh census data, a months-long process.

He had openly challenged the powerful military establishment and claimed it was “petrified” of elections.

With President Arif Alvi’s order on Wednesday to dissolve the National Assembly, a caretaker government will take charge. Outgoing Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and his government have been given three days to name an interim leader.

A senior Election Commission of Pakistan official told the BBC: “The elections will be held once the census is done, which will take about four months’ time. As a result, the elections may be delayed till next year.”

Mr Sharif, who warned that the country cannot progress without “national unity”, also told reporters recently that polls may not be held this year.

Some feel the election is being delayed as the ruling Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PML-N) coalition isn’t confident about winning at the polls, due to Mr Khan’s enduring popularity, as well as the effects of runaway inflation despite a bailout from the International Monetary Fund.

Despite their once close relationship, Mr Khan has rattled the military like no other politician before him. Senior analyst Rasool Bakhsh Raees even reckons that the former cricket star’s detention will increase his popularity.

In May, Mr Khan’s arrest on corruption charges sparked nationwide protests that saw at least eight deaths and some 1,400 arrests, amid unprecedented attacks on military property and buildings.

The 70-year old, who is appealing his conviction on graft charges, has claimed that the military’s goal was to “eventually put me into prison and to crush my party.”

But the rule remains the same: anyone who challenges Pakistan’s military, even someone with the charisma and international stature of Mr Khan, must go. The former cricket star is simply the latest politician since the 1970s to find this out the hard way.

As former senator Afrasiab Khattak told the BBC, there are two systems of government operating in parallel. Now, “the unsanctioned, de facto force wants to take over the parliamentary process,” said Mr Khattak. “Pakistan’s military has always been powerful, but they want more powers so that their unsanctioned rule is not challenged either by politicians, activists, or journalists.”

Former Pakistan PM Imran Khan

Reuters

Perhaps this was why two draconian laws were tabled in the National Assembly last week, in a bid to further enhance the powers of the military and intelligence agencies.

Proposed amendments to the century-old Official Secrets Act will broadly empower the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) and Intelligence Bureau (IB) to arrest citizens over “suspected breach of official secrets”. In addition, a new bill recommends a three-year jail term for anyone who discloses the identity of an intelligence official.

The amendments provoked a ruckus in parliament, with both the opposition Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and PML-N’s coalition partners calling the government out for passing “draconian laws in haste” and without discussion.

Senator Mushtaq Ahmed of Jamaat-e-Islami also warned that the Official Secrets Act amendment will grant intelligence agencies “extraordinary powers” of arrest and search without warrant. “This will have an impact on the human rights, individual rights and press freedom across the country.”

The Pakistani intelligence services are regularly accused of illegally detaining opposition members, politicians, activists and journalists, with human rights organisations noting the increasing number of enforced disappearances every month.

In the month of July alone, 157 more cases of enforced disappearances were reported, according to the government-led Commission of Inquiry on Enforced Disappearances.

The bills have been sent to President Alvi, a co-founder of the PTI, and must be signed by him before they can be legislated into law.

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