Enter the Dragon… crowds roar in Lunar New Year

Festivities mark the end of the Year of the Rabbit and the start of the Year of the Dragon.

Crowds got in the spirit in cities including Beijing and New York.

They will continue for two weeks, in one of the year’s biggest events for many east and south-east Asian communities.

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Indonesia Elections 2024: Pollsters see Prabowo first-round knockout, but analysts say Anies, Ganjar still in the fight

Ganjar-Mahfud campaign team leader Arsjad Rasjid was quoted by Kompas as saying that the people’s voice will be heard on polling day, and not in surveys.

“We also hope that the outcome is a fair, truthful and factual one that follows the democratic process,” he said, reiterating that state apparatus should remain neutral during the hustings.

This comes amid allegations that President Joko Widodo has allowed the deployment of public officers to support Mr Prabowo’s campaign and undermine that of his rivals, sparking protests from various groups. 

Jokowi, as the popular president is widely known, previously said the head of state is legally allowed to campaign, but on Wednesday told reporters he will not be doing so.

NOT IN THE BAG YET

Dr Ian Wilson, a senior fellow at Murdoch University’s Indo-Pacific Research Centre, told CNA he was wary of the latest Indikator Politik survey as it uses multistage sampling of 1,000 people.

In multistage sampling, a target population is first defined before being divided into smaller and smaller clusters until a desired sample size is achieved.

This method is often used to collect data from a large, geographically spread group of people in national surveys as it is cheaper and easier to conduct, although not the most representative.

“I’m very sceptical of accurate extrapolation using this sample size and method for a voting population of 204 million, especially when everything is so dynamic,” Dr Wilson said.

The analyst said the Prabowo campaign team would at this point have hoped for a convincing first round win “in the bag”, especially with Jokowi seen to be more overtly campaigning over the past few days.

Jokowi has been spotted dining privately with Mr Prabowo on recent occasions and has been accused of mobilising social aid programs to shore up support for the current Defence Minister.

“I think now many of them (in Prabowo’s campaign) are coming to the conclusion that it’s probably going to go to a second round,” Dr Wilson added.

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Commentary: Visa waiver deal puts Singapore in good stead to attract the coveted Chinese tourist

China’s travel agency giants expect visa exemption to keep Singapore attractive beyond the seasonal jumpstart.

“If we look at the areas that have been doing very well over the past year, the first are GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) countries in the Middle East. Qatar and Dubai have favourable visa policies and make arrival convenient; other nations have online visa application procedures that are convenient and easy.

“Now that Singapore and China will be implementing reciprocal visa-free travel, we certainly see more Chinese travellers choosing to visit Singapore due to the increased convenience,” Mr Edmund Ong, general manager of Trip.com Singapore, told me.

MIRAGE OF CHINA’S REVENGE TRAVELLERS

It may appear, wishfully, that China is finally unleashing its revenge travellers in full force. But China’s economic troubles are too big to ignore.

The slow return of outbound travel was largely attributed to China’s disappointing economic restart coming out of the pandemic. As of September 2023, Chinese outbound tourism expenditure was still down 18 per cent from pre-pandemic levels, according to the United Nations World Tourism Organization.

Economic forecasts for 2024 have only gotten worse, with various experts projecting China’s GDP growth to slow from 5.2 per cent in 2023 to between 4 and 4.6 per cent in 2024.

The country cannot conceivably get out of its litany of economic troubles any time soon: A serious deflation spiral, record drops in salaries, a property market crisis, high youth unemployment rates – and the list goes on.

THE RISE OF THE PRUDENT TRAVELLER

In this climate, perhaps the foremost question is not where, but how the Chinese would be travelling in 2024.

Already emerging is a picture of the prudent Chinese traveller, mediating economic anxieties while they vacation – whether by planning their academic journey overseas, or hitting multiple destinations to stretch the flight buck.

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Thailand eyes ‘Singapore model’ for casinos and mulls online gambling too. Could it be a winning hand?

MONEY LOST ACROSS THE BORDER

The current sources of online gambling Thailand are illegal and have long been connected to various criminal activities, such as money laundering, drug and human trafficking.

Extensive scamming operations working in close proximity to gambling dens in border areas have been well documented.

Thai police officers have also been connected to such illicit activities. Last September, several officers were found to be involved in running illegal online gambling sites, which led to raids at multiple locations, including houses belonging to Thailand’s deputy national police chief Surachate “Big Joke” Hakparn.

At present, it is estimated that vast sums of Thai money are leaking out of the country via illegal gambling, offshore and online.

Legalising on-site casinos has been framed as one solution to diverting money away from such activity, into the coffers of the government instead.

Mr Karit Pannaim, a Move Forward Party MP and member of the parliamentary committee studying the legalisation proposal said he believes legal casinos could make a dent in the illegal activities occurring in border gambling dens, including in the province he represents, Tak, on the border with Myanmar.

“If we have an entertainment complex, we will reduce the money that flows along the borders,” he said.

But identifying the scale of illegal gambling in Thailand is very difficult, according to Dr Nualnoi. She said the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in a sharp rise in online gambling within the country, when gamblers were unable to cross the border.

Her centre’s research found that the number of online gamblers in Thailand doubled to 1.9 million people in 2021 during the worst of the lockdown periods. Gross gaming revenue in the country was estimated at US$2.8 billion for that year.

“A lot of them play inside the country now. And the ones who are providing this online gambling are all Thai,” she told CNA.

“If you have legal casinos, it doesn’t mean illegal casinos will disappear. It’s another story,” said. “When you have legal casinos, you need to supplant the illegal ones, otherwise they’re just other places for people to gamble in the country.”

Mr Thanakorn Komkris, the secretary-general of Stop Gambling Foundation, said without a proper crackdown on such illegal operations, Thailand cannot hope to have a sustainable gambling industry.

“If we don’t want the people to spend money outside the country, the government should put pressure in every way possible to stop people from accessing this (illegal gambling). Legal gambling doesn’t decrease illegal gambling,” he said.

The government announced last year that it had shut down thousands of gaming sites and dealt with thousands of illegal gambling cases.

Mr Thanakorn said he is still worried that the government will rush legislation that does not ensure the industry is properly controlled and managed. 

“I’m also afraid that it will be done in a way that it’s an excuse to do a ‘sandbox’ or they legalise it first and do the control measures after, like the decriminalisation of cannabis,” he said.

The legalisation of cannabis in Thailand in 2022 – namely allowing its possession, cultivation, distribution, consumption, and sale – came hard and fast. 

Throughout the country, especially in popular tourist cities, marijuana dispensaries surfaced at a rapid pace and the industry had enjoyed freewheeling liberties to expand. This month, the government said it would urgently introduce a bill to ban recreational use of the drug.

“We have a lot of lessons about doing it first and fixing it later. We can’t do this because we will not be able to catch up with problems or stop it later,” Mr Thanakorn said.

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Motorcade saga leads to brawl

Royalists, activists clash at Siam BTS

National police chief Pol Gen Torsak Sukvimol emphasised the need for maximum security for royal motorcades following a clash yesterday over a motorcade protest last week.

The Metropolitan Police Bureau are concerned after an activist, Tantawan Tuatulanon, tried to interrupt a royal motorcade last Sunday. The incident led to a brawl between her group and a royalist group yesterday.

The police chief said yesterday that he visited Metropolitan Police Bureau on Friday to stress before police the guidelines in providing security for royal motorcades, emphasising the use of maximum security measures without causing any inconvenience for civilians.

The developments came after an incident on Feb 4 when Ms Tantawan, 20, interrupted the royal motorcade of HRH Princess Maha Chakri Sirindhorn by honking a car horn at the convoy and tried to drive into the middle of it.

Pol Gen Torsak has ordered an investigation into the case. According to him, the activist will face legal action if she broke the law. Her action drew public criticism and a police complaint for causing a public disturbance.

On Friday, Ms Tantawan posted on social media asking people to vote on whether the royal motorcade created trouble, at the skywalk of the Siam BTS station in front of Siam Paragon Shopping Mall. Her supporters showed up and so did a royalist group calling itself Thai People Protecting the Monarchy.

Shortly after the Thalu Wang group and Ms Tantawan gathered on the skywalk to conduct the poll, a violent brawl erupted. As Ms Tantawan was explaining the details of her activity — and also apologising for her driving in the earlier incident — the pro-palace group started shouting at her, with some pushing and shoving occurring between supporters of both sides.

Pathumwan police and plainclothes officers who had been deployed to maintain peace and order intervened, but not successfully.

An officer started to lead Ms Tantawan away from her critics and she did not resist. Others followed and continued to shout at her and take videos with their phones. “Rebels out!” some shouted, as more pushing and shoving ensued, and punches were thrown by both sides.

At one point, a man later identified as Arnon Klinkaew, chairman of the pro-monarchy group, was seen leaping a turnstile to chase after another man. Mr Arnon has filed a number of lese-majeste complaints against activists under Section 112 of the Criminal Code.

The clash lasted about 20 minutes. It prompted BTS staff to close Gate 4 to the BTS station and Gate 3 which links to the shopping mall. After the chaos, Ms Tantawan took her group to file a complaint with Pathumwan police against the pro-royalist group.

The latter also filed a complaint against the Thalu Wang group at the station.

Police had to separate the two groups, keeping the Thalu Wang side inside and the others in front of the station, where barriers were erected.

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Council reveals mass data leak of 19.7m seniors

The Thailand Consumers Council is urging the Department of Older Persons (DOP) to take action and inform 19.7 million of its members that their personal data is being sold on the dark web.

The council has asked the DOP to advise its members about the risks they face and develop measures to ensure the security of their data.

Supinya Klangnarong, chairwoman of the Thailand Consumers Council’s subcommittee on Telecoms and ICT, said yesterday the DOP should admit the data leak occurred and notify the owners to allow them to prepare for any potential risks.

According to a Jan 22 report by Resecurity — an American private cybersecurity company — 19,718,687 rows of personally identifiable information (PII), including names, addresses, phone numbers, ID numbers, emails, signatures and ID card photos of Thai citizens were found on the dark web.

The report said the data was leaked from the DOP.

Ms Supinya expressed her concerns about the leak.

Delays in taking action and problems around a lack of strict enforcement exist, despite the existence of the Personal Data Protection Act (PDPA), she said.

She also mentioned the elderly’s lack of knowledge about modern technology, suggesting the government must develop digital functions that are suitable for them.

That could include the option to hold money transfers on the PromptPay payment system for 15 or 30 minutes before the transactions are processed, which will allow them some time to check their transactions and make sure they are not being scammed.

The government should regularly distribute updates to the elderly, with warnings and tips on how they can stay secure online, Ms Supinya said.

Meanwhile, Minister of Social Development and Human Security Varawut Silpa-archa said the actual amount of leaked data is less than that which has been reported in the news.

“As the minister, I want to express my sincere apologies,” he said.

The ministry has worked with various parties, including the Office of the Personal Data Protection Committee and National Cyber Security Agency, to review cyber security measures to safeguard citizens’ data, he said.

The DOP has filed a complaint about the matter with the Cyber Investigation Bureau (CIB).

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Study sheds light on log coffins

Ancient human DNA linked to modern ethnic groups, prehistoric migration

Study sheds light on log coffins
Treasure trove: The log coffins of ancient humans were found inside the Phi Man cave in Pang Mapha district, Mae Hong Son province.

DNA decoding from 33 pieces of ancient human bones and teeth found at Iron Age Log Coffin sites in Mae Hong Son province is showing a link between prehistoric communities and modern ethnic groups in the region, according to an expert.

Rasmi Shoocongdej, a lecturer at the Faculty of Archaeology, Silpakorn University, and head of the Prehistoric Population and Cultural Dynamics in Highland Pang Mapha Project, said her team has been surveying a prehistoric cave community in Mae Hong Son since 1998 to learn more about prehistoric migrations in the area.

The highlands of Pang Mapha were a mortuary for ancient humans who lived in the area and they followed the “Log Coffin” culture. Large coffins carved from teak wood dating between 1,000 to 2,300 years ago have been discovered in about 40 caves and rock shelters in the province.

“While previous studies focused on the cultural development of Log Coffin-associated sites, the origins of the practice, connections with other wood coffin-using groups in Southeast Asia and the social structures in the region remained unstudied,” Prof Rasmi said.

“So, we present genome-wide data from 33 individuals from five Log Coffin culture sites to study genetic ancestry profiles and genetic interconnectedness,” she said.

The team worked closely with the Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Anthropology in Leipzig, Germany, to study DNA from 33 bones and teeth of ancient individuals found at the five sites, she said.

The results showed new connections between individuals from the five sites, she said, adding a report on the discovery was published in Nature Communication in December.

She said the discovery could create a better understanding of ethnic groups in the Asian region, including Thailand.

“It shows a migration route humans took during the prehistoric period,” she said.

Pang Mapha ancient humans shared a close DNA pattern with Neolithic people who lived in the Yangtze River Valley and Yellow River Valley in China, she said. It is believed that they migrated from China to the western part of the Salween River, she said. “Our research examines the relationship between humans and their environments in the seasonal tropics,” she said.

“Our [mission] is the exploration of the social structure of these prehistoric communities and explaining their connections with other pre-Neolithic and post-Neolithic groups in this region.”

Wibhu Kutanan, a scientist at Naresuan University, said analysing the DNA of ancient humans is challenging because bones and other genetic materials deteriorate over time.

However, the team was lucky to have found 33 “perfect” pieces out of the 66 that were sent to a lab in Germany for analysis, Assoc Prof Wibhu said.

The samples were good enough to run identical-by-descent block analysis, a method that helped trace complex biological patterns in the region, he said.

The team was among the first to use the method in archaeogenetics studies of Southeast Asia, he noted.

“This is a first in the Southeast Asia region to have a DNA test to identify individual relations in ancient times,” he said.

“The result is so amazing as we have found family relations, including twins, half-siblings, grandfathers and grandchildren.

“We have also seen great-grandfather relations between the Yappa Nhae II cave and the Tham Lod cave [in Mae Hong Son],” he said.

The study, he added, has also concluded that ancient Pang Mapha humans shared similar DNA patterns to Lava, Mon and Padong Karen ethnic groups.

The result is significant since log coffins were also used by prehistoric peoples in Southeast Asia, he said, noting that the project could help explain cultural dynamics and population interactions in Southeast Asia and other regions.

Prof Rasmi said the team will explore archaeological sites in the Central Plains provinces of Lop Buri and Suphan Buri, which are believed to have contained major prehistoric communities.

The study is an attempt at finding “the missing piece of a jigsaw puzzle” that could reshape understanding of ancient Thai culture from the Dvaravati era (6th–11th century) to the present Rattanakosin period.

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BioThai wary of gene-edited crops move

BioThai is urging the government to exercise caution on any decision regarding gene-editing crops following the European Parliament decision last week to give them the green light, which also came with strict regulations.

The European Parliament on Feb 7 decided to relax controls on what are also known as new genomic techniques (NGTs) after a 307-to-263 vote in favour of the change. However, the decision was not simply a green light for gene editing as it came with certain caveats, according to BioThai.

The conditions specify that only plants that are identified as NGT1 will be exempt from the requirements of the GMO legislation; all other NGT plants (NGT2) will have to comply to the strict orders.

All NGT crop products must be clearly labelled and follow traceability requirements to ensure that if problems arise, the licence can be revoked and compensation sought. Gene-editing crops are also prohibited from being used in organic farming and banned from patenting.

Despite these conditions, organisations like the German Federal Agency for Nature Conservation (BfN) and France’s food safety agency expressed concerns the scientific basis for relaxing regulations on NGT1 crops was insufficient.

In their response to the decision, they emphasised the importance of maintaining control over all gene-edited crops, which must conform to the guidelines of the GMO.

BioThai emphasised the need for care and thorough study before making decisions about gene editing and GMOs.

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Illicit drug limit set for dodging jail

Ceiling announced in ‘Royal Gazette’

A ceiling has been set by the Public Health Ministry, below which people possessing illicit drugs will be regarded as drug users not liable for legal punishment.

The ceiling issued under an order signed by Public Health Minister Cholnan Srikaew was announced in the Royal Gazette on Feb 9.

The measure was launched in tandem with Section 107 of the Narcotics Code requiring the minister to release a ministerial regulation specifying the maximum amounts by which people can possess illicit drugs and are still regarded as users, as opposed to drug traders or traffickers who face much tougher punishment.

For example, an offender who has in his or her possession up to five meth pills or 500 milligrammes at the time of arrest is to be treated by law as a drug user. Under the law, people who harbour small amounts of an illicit drug are assumed to have the intent to consume it. They should undergo rehab and be spared imprisonment.

Dr Cholnan said the proposal was put to a public hearing over the course of two weeks. After that, it was forwarded to the cabinet for approval and then published in the Royal Gazette.

Ceilings for other popular drugs were also put in place: MDEA (a substitute amphetamine) of up to five units or 1,250 mg; heroin, up to 300 mg; LSD (lysergic acid diethylamide), a potent psychedelic drug, up to 100 mg; ecstasy, up to 1,250 mg.

Other celings are cocaine, up to 200 mg; opium, up to 5,000 mg; cannabis extracts with more than 0.2% tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) content, up to 30 ml in liquid form; and ketamine, up to 500 mg in crystal or powder form.

The regulation will be adopted as a guideline for law enforcement officials in seeking prosecution of individuals in drug cases.

However, Dr Cholnan insisted conditions apply when considering if drug users can escape legal punishment.

First they must consent to attending a drug rehab programme. Second, they must stay for the duration and satisfy all rehab criteria and third, they must be certified as having completed rehab. The individuals must meet all three criteria before they can be spared punishment.

The minister said he has been misquoted by netizens who criticised him for taking a soft stance on drug abuse.

Meanwhile, Narcotics Suppression Bureau commissioner Pol Lt Gen Kirisak Tantinwachai said that despite the ceilings, an offender found with a small amount of drug still may be subject to heavy punishment if the circumstances of the crime warrant it.

If it could be proven they possess even a small amount of drug with the intent to trade or export, they are liable for a hefty jail term, he added.

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OAG staff get interim protection

OAG staff get interim protection
Prayut: Waiting for the police’s decision on accusations

The Office of the Attorney General (OAG) is probing a request by two senior prosecutors, who said their lives were threatened by a team of policemen involved in giant gambling sites.

Prayut Phetcharakhun, OAG’s spokesman, said yesterday the petition by Kulthanit Mongkolsawat, chief of the Investigation Office of the OAG, and Suriyon Prabhasavat, a senior public prosecutor of the OAG, had been submitted to the OAG, and Pol Gen Thana Chuwong, the deputy police chief, who had asked the OAG to send staff to join the police investigation team.

Mr Prayut also said the office is now waiting for the police decision regarding the accusations next week.

According to the OAG, Mr Kulthanit and Mr Suriyon had submitted the petition, dated Feb 2, to Pol Gen Thana, saying they received threats while working on a case concerning online gambling websites allegedly linked to Suchanun “Minnie” Sucharitchinsri.

Mr Kulthanit and Mr Suriyon were assigned by the OAG on Nov 2 to supervise the Thung Mahamek police carrying out the investigation. The case involved eight police suspects, including Pol Col Phakphum Phitsamai, a close aide of deputy police chief, Pol Gen Surachate Hakparn.

During the investigation, Pol Col Phakphum and his associates lodged a complaint against Mr Kulthanit and Mr Suriyon for their role in assisting the case. The complaint included photos of the two prosecutors that appeared to have been taken clandestinely including pictures that show they were followed.

The prosecutors said such a complaint did not require photos, so their inclusion was perceived as a veiled threat showing they were being followed. The prosecutors regard the action as a form of intimidation.

The prosecutors reported the matter to the OAG and sought permission to suspend their role in this case until adequate protection was given.

Mr Prayut said the OAG has started investigating the complaint and will know the outcome in the next week.

During this time, the Rights and Liberties Protection Department has sent a protection team to provide safety to the prosecutors, he said.

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