Analysis: Democracy champion to new face of conservatives — how Pheu Thai’s moves to regain power could shape Thai politics

A MATHEMATICAL CHALLENGE

First, here’s the mathematical challenge confronting Pheu Thai in its quest to form and lead the next government.

After parting ways with Move Forward, Pheu Thai has been pushing for its candidate Srettha Thavisin to become Thailand’s 30th prime minister – an onerous task that requires the approval of at least 375 parliamentarians or more than half of the national assembly.

The condition is stipulated in the current constitution, written by a military-appointed committee after a coup d’etat in 2014. 

Designed to extend the establishment’s political control, the law is a legacy of incumbent Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha, a general-turned-politician who deposed Pheu Thai’s previous government nine years ago. 

It gives power to the military-controlled Senate to jointly select the prime minister with the House of Representatives until May next year.

The Pheu Thai-led coalition currently commands 238 votes and still needs 137 more to secure the premiership for Mr Srettha. 

On Tuesday, Move Forward had declared it will not vote for Pheu Thai’s prime ministerial candidate, adding more obstacles and dilemmas to its quest for power. 

With Move Forward out of the equation, Pheu Thai does not have other options but to ally itself with military-linked parties Palang Pracharat and United Thai Nation.

The first belongs to Gen Prawit Wongsuwon, Thailand’s incumbent deputy prime minister and former army chief, who played a key role in the Prayut junta. The latter was led by the coup maker himself until his resignation last month.

Their combined 76 votes and influence on 249 senators could give Pheu Thai a final push to form the government when parliament reconvenes on Aug 22 to select the prime minister. 

SECURING THAKSIN’S RETURN

Pheu Thai’s race to form the government coincides with an expected return of Mr Thaksin, who was ousted from power in a military coup in 2006. 

The Shinawatra family has close ties with Pheu Thai, which is a reincarnation of Mr Thaksin’s old political group Thai Rak Thai. His youngest daughter Paetongtarn Shinawatra is in fact one of the party’s prime ministerial candidates.

Currently living in exile in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, the ex-prime minister initially planned to come home on Aug 10 but later postponed his trip, citing medical appointments. For political observers, however, the delay was caused by the fact that Pheu Thai had not secured the premiership just yet.

“The prime ministerial post is the most important thing,” said Dr Thanaporn Sriyakul, president of the Political Science Association of Kasetsart University.

He believes Pheu Thai is doing everything it can to win the country’s top job, even though it means going against its campaign rhetoric and promise not to work with the military-affiliated parties.

Pheu Thai’s alliance with military-linked parties could also ensure a safe homecoming of its fugitive patron Thaksin. Despite speculation that Pheu Thai may offer the premiership to Gen Prawit from Palang Pracharat in exchange for Mr Thaksin’s return, some analysts disagree.

“People may think that giving the premiership to Prawit would get Thaksin home but how can Pheu Thai be sure that if it doesn’t get to lead the government, Thaksin will be able to return safely?” said Dr Siripan.

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Commentary: The value of budget surpluses for Singapore in challenging times

Certainly, maintaining Singapore’s competitiveness is a non-negotiable as, all things being equal, taxation of rising GDP must be the primary route to raising state revenues and ensuring fiscal sustainability.

Beyond that, our own question reflecting on the IPS workshops is this: If budget surpluses are an important additional hedge against the erosion of our reserves, could the mark of good governance be to achieve more than a balanced budget?

How about the extent to which the government of the day targets to achieve surpluses that match a moving 10-year average of rate of inflation?

Another suggestion is to consider it a legitimate and valuable endeavour for the government to build back the amount it might have spent during a crisis through such budget surpluses, if it is still the same party in power.

Likewise, citizens should expect to hear of such plans from any political party hoping to form government – they should start from the position of fiscal prudence which remains an important value held by Singaporeans if our deliberation exercise is anything to go by.

Hence, like the useful though imperfect analogy of household accounts, national budget surpluses are critical for the sustainability of our national finances, and integral to the concept of intergenerational fairness for a resource-scarce country in a tumultuous world.

Eddie Choo is a Research Associate and Gillian Koh, Senior Research Fellow at the Institute of Policy Studies, National University of Singapore. Both were part of the team that published the IPS Working Paper 51. Public Deliberation on Singapore’s Fiscal Policy and National Reserves.

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Analysis: Democracy champion to new face of conservatives – how Pheu Thai’s moves to regain power could shape Thai politics

A MATHEMATICAL CHALLENGE

First, here’s the mathematical challenge confronting Pheu Thai in its quest to form and lead the next government.

After parting ways with Move Forward, Pheu Thai has been pushing for its candidate Srettha Thavisin to become Thailand’s 30th prime minister – an onerous task that requires the approval of at least 375 parliamentarians or more than half of the national assembly.

The condition is stipulated in the current constitution, written by a military-appointed committee after a coup d’etat in 2014. 

Designed to extend the establishment’s political control, the law is a legacy of incumbent Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha, a general-turned-politician who deposed Pheu Thai’s previous government nine years ago. 

It gives power to the military-controlled Senate, whose five-year term ends May 11 next year, to jointly select the prime minister with the House of Representatives.

This means that without the Senate’s support, the political stalemate could drag on till then. And in the event that none of the listed candidates can be appointed for any reason, the constitution allows a process that could bring in an “outsider prime minister”.

The Pheu Thai-led coalition currently commands 238 votes and still needs 137 more to secure the premiership for Mr Srettha. 

On Tuesday, Move Forward declared it will not vote for Pheu Thai’s prime ministerial candidate, adding more obstacles and dilemmas to its quest for power. 

With Move Forward out of the equation, Pheu Thai does not have other options but to ally itself with military-linked parties Palang Pracharat and United Thai Nation.

The first belongs to Gen Prawit Wongsuwon, Thailand’s incumbent deputy prime minister and former army chief, who played a key role in the Prayut junta. The latter was led by the coup maker himself until his resignation last month.

Their combined 76 votes and influence on 249 senators could give Pheu Thai a final push to form the government when parliament reconvenes on Aug 22 to select the prime minister. 

SECURING THAKSIN’S RETURN

Pheu Thai’s race to form the government coincides with an expected return of Mr Thaksin, who was ousted from power in a military coup in 2006. 

The Shinawatra family has close ties with Pheu Thai, which is a reincarnation of Mr Thaksin’s old political group Thai Rak Thai. His youngest daughter Paetongtarn Shinawatra is in fact one of the party’s prime ministerial candidates.

Currently living in exile in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, the ex-prime minister initially planned to come home on Aug 10 but later postponed his trip, citing medical appointments. For political observers, however, the delay was caused by the fact that Pheu Thai had not secured the premiership just yet.

“The prime ministerial post is the most important thing,” said Dr Thanaporn Sriyakul, president of the Political Science Association of Kasetsart University.

He believes Pheu Thai is doing everything it can to win the country’s top job, even though it means going against its campaign rhetoric and promise not to work with the military-affiliated parties.

Pheu Thai’s alliance with military-linked parties could also ensure a safe homecoming of its fugitive patron Thaksin. Despite speculation that Pheu Thai may offer the premiership to Gen Prawit from Palang Pracharat in exchange for Mr Thaksin’s return, some analysts disagree.

“People may think that giving the premiership to Prawit would get Thaksin home but how can Pheu Thai be sure that if it doesn’t get to lead the government, Thaksin will be able to return safely?” said Dr Siripan.

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Commentary: Prabowo gathers momentum in the race to succeed Indonesian PM Jokowi

CANBERRA: You have to give credit to Indonesian President Joko Widodo for his commitment to the old cliche that Javanese politicians like to communicate their intentions through symbols and hints. With presidential elections six months away, Jokowi has painstakingly avoided an explicit endorsement of any candidate.

Yet it’s become the worst-kept secret in Jakarta that the president increasingly sees advantage in having his defence minister, Prabowo Subianto, succeed him in 2024.

The aura of being Jokowi’s favoured successor matters because he approaches his last year in office with his approval ratings just above 80 per cent, an all-time high.

Benign economic conditions have helped a lot. Indonesia’s GDP grew by 5.2 per cent from July 2022 to July 2023, with inflation at just 3 per cent over the same period. Corruption, informality and inequality still weigh on Indonesia’s economic potential, but for the average voter, the Widodo-era economy has expanded economic opportunities, increased availability of cash transfers and subsidised health care.

Prabowo now polls just ahead of Central Java governor Ganjar Pranowo in a three-way race that includes the opposition’s candidate, former Jakarta governor Anies Baswedan, who’s failed to gain traction.

Ganjar, a member of the nationalist PDI-P party like Widodo, is burdened by his close association with PDI-P chair and former president Megawati Soekarnoputri, an electorally polarising figure with whom Jokowi has a tense relationship.

Prabowo remains the fallback option for voters who now prefer Anies. Polls predict that he would win if Anies fails to make it onto the ballot and would prevail in a June runoff should Anies be eliminated in the first round of voting in February.

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Commentary: What’s driving record-high youth unemployment in China?

MISMATCH IN CHINA’S JOB MARKET

The significant surge in colleague graduates contributes towards an imbalance between supply and demand in China’s job market.

Regulatory tightening on segments of the economy since 2021 has had a negative impact on youth employment, such as those on the platform sector, for-profit tutoring, and video-gaming.

There has been growing interest to join the public sector through civil service exams, indicating a changing preference for government jobs and a loosening labour market. Indeed, the number of persons aged 35 and below registered for the civil service exam rose from 1.4 million in 2019 to 2.5 million in 2023.

Beyond the above, social change also plays a role in China’s youth employment.

Facing the weakening economy and contracting job market, some Chinese youth have adopted passive lifestyles. They may choose to lie flat (tang ping), let it rot (bai lan), or become full-time children to live with and take care of their parents. Concurrently, some may make efforts to seek employment, take up part-time jobs, or undergo career training.

As these trends become the norm in Chinese cities, there may be more social tolerance for young people who opt out of the competitive job market or the ladder towards professional success. At present, however, the precise impact of such gradual societal changes on youth unemployment is hard to estimate.

GOVERNMENT RESPONSES TO YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT

Responding to rising youth unemployment, the Chinese government has taken new measures such as providing job opening information online and on-site, training programmes for job-hunting and one-time subsidies to companies that employ new graduates.

Authorities are also promoting self-employment by easing regulations. Some cities, such as Shenzhen, Lanzhou and Hangzhou, have permitted street vendors and hawkers, once banned because they were considered unsightly, to operate in certain areas.

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Pet sacrifices to occult deity spur warning

Pet sacrifices to occult deity spur warning
A gargoyle-like sculpture of the deity Khru Kai Kaeo in Huai Khwang. Some people have sacrificed pets to the statue. Nutthawat Wichieanbut

Using pets as sacrifices for Khru Kai Kaeo, a deity represented by a gargoyle-like sculpture at a shrine in Bangkok, will make people liable to prosecution, the Watchdog Thailand Foundation (WDT) has warned.

The warning came on the back of growing concerns from pet lovers aghast at the news of worshippers obtaining cats, dogs and rabbits and using them as sacrificial animals.

In a Facebook post, the foundation said believers must think twice before they consider harming pets and using them as sacrifices to the half-human, half-mythical bird sculpture installed at the Ganesha shrine near Huai Khwang intersection.

Intentionally harming animals was a breach of the animal cruelty law, which carries a heavy penalty.

A relative of the sculptor of the Khru Kai Kaeo statue dismissed the rite of making animal sacrifices as a misinterpretation of the correct protocol.

The relative, whose name was not given, built the Ganesha shrine in Bang Yai district of Nonthaburi. He insisted that only fruits and sweets may be presented as offerings to Khru Kai Kaeo.

The sculpture made headlines when it was taken on the back of a truck from a studio in Ratchaburi to the Huai Khwang shrine on the morning of Aug 9. The truck was stuck at a pedestrian bridge, paralysing traffic on Ratchadaphisek Road for about two hours.

The sculpture’s unusual appearance sparked debate about what it represents. According to some believers, Khru Kai Kaeo, also known as Khru Ba Kai Kaeo, was the revered teacher of Jayavarman VII, a former king of the Khmer Empire.

Tongthong Chandransu, a history scholar, however, said he has never heard of this alleged teacher.

Although it is not against the law to worship a statue, the animal sacrifice craze shows how insecure many Thai people have become in their desperate search for spiritual support, he said.

Phra Phayom Kalayano, the abbot of Wat Suan Kaeo, urged people to analyse the information they find online.

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Govt urged to scrap new pension rules

Thai Labour Solidarity Committee (TLSC) has called on the caretaker government to consider revising a new regulation imposing income limits on the elderly receiving monthly allowances.

Signed by Interior Minister Anupong Paojinda, published in the Royal Gazette last Friday and made effective on Saturday, the regulation stipulates that only elderly people with no income or insufficient income to cover living costs are entitled to the monthly allowance from the state.

However, a provisional clause in the regulation says the new criteria for payment of the elderly allowance does not apply to people who registered for the allowance with local administrative bodies before Aug 12, 2023, meaning those currently receiving the allowance are not affected.

The regulation has sparked criticism that it has downgraded the country’s bid to build a universal welfare system for the elderly.

Upon submitting a petition to Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha through the government’s public complaint centre, the TLSC said it encouraged the government to back down on the change.

“The regulation will ruin the existing principle of universal state welfare and instead bring back the same old state welfare system, which focused on only the poor and the underprivileged,” said TLSC chairman Sawit Kaewvarn.

The regulation has downgraded Thailand’s elderly welfare system to the state it was in 2009, during which poverty needed to be proved before elderly people were given allowances, he said.

He said this change is unconstitutional, against the international principle of human rights and will generate more problems.

He said the regulation would make work more complicated for state agencies responsible for implementing it.

If they instead followed the existing universal welfare system for the elderly, he said, it would be more convenient not only for the elderly but also for those state agencies handling the monthly allowance payment.

Of the 12 million or so elderly people in the country, the vast majority are aged 60 to 69, he said.

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The baby at the centre of an India-Germany diplomatic row

Feet of an Indian babyGetty Images

She loves Indian food and in videos shared by her parents appears joyful in their company.

But Baby M, two-and-a-half-years-old, is now in a centre for children with special needs near the German city of Berlin, her mother says.

The toddler has been at the centre of a diplomatic row between India and Germany after she was taken away from her Indian family on accusations of child abuse in September 2021 – when she was only seven months old.

In June this year, a court in Berlin terminated the parental rights of Dia and her husband Amit – we are not using their real names for legal reasons – and the baby’s custody was handed over to Jugendamt or the Youth Welfare Office of Germany. The court also rejected the parents’ demand to repatriate the child to India. The parents have called it a “sham trial” and filed an appeal.

Dia, who is currently in Delhi to drum up support in her fight to bring the child back to India, dissolves into tears while talking to the BBC about being separated from her daughter.

The family moved to Berlin in 2018 when Amit got a job there and Baby M was born on 2 February 2021.

According to court documents, at the centre of the family’s row with the authorities is a genital injury Baby M suffered when she was seven months old. It has one doctor saying that they’d “never seen such a severe genital injury in an infant” and that she needed surgery to fix it.

The child protection services took her away saying they suspected sexual abuse – an accusation the family denied. The hospital where she was treated cleared them later, with doctors certifying that “there was no evidence” to suggest sexual abuse and the police closed the case without pressing charges.

The parents say they believe the injury was accidental. Two independent doctors from the US and India who saw the baby’s medical records agreed with that assessment.

“The injury highly likely was caused by an accident. It was impossible that parents intentionally inflicted injuries on her repeatedly and then rushed her to the doctors,” they said in a report submitted in court. They added that they believed that “her injuries could’ve been worsened because of all the invasive examinations” she was put through.

But the child protection authorities said they didn’t think that Baby M would be safe at home – a contention the court agreed with.

Baby M's mother

So, she has now spent nearly two years in foster care, and her parents say they have been allowed little contact with her – despite social workers who were assigned to the family describing them as “loving and caring” parents and describing the child’s interactions with them as “consistently positive, joyful and curious”. A court-appointed psychologist also recommended that one of the parents live with Baby M in a parent-child facility supervised by a caregiver.

But last week, Jugendamt informed the parents that “all visitations with their daughter have been cancelled as there is no one to pick and drop her”, says Dia, alleging that they have not even been allowed to video-call the child.

“We have no information on who is caring for her since she was moved from foster care to the centre for children with special needs. The secrecy surrounding our baby is totally bizarre.”

Dia accuses the German authorities of “snatching my child because of cultural differences and miscommunication” – she says she can’t speak German and the translator she was given spoke Hindi but did not know Gujarati. The BBC has reached out to Jugendamt and their response is awaited.

Baby M’s case has received a lot of attention in India and Germany – protests have been held in several Indian cities and by the Indian diaspora in Frankfurt and Darmstadt and support has poured in for the parents.

In Delhi, Dia has met officials from the Indian ministry of external affairs (MEA) and lobbied dozens of MPs who have sent a letter to the German Ambassador Phillip Ackerman to repatriate the toddler to India.

An MP urged the government to take the necessary steps to bring her back. Another politician asked Prime Minister Narendra Modi to take up the matter with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz when he visits Delhi next month for the G-20 summit.

Dia too is now appealing to the prime minister to intervene. “My only hope is Mr Modi now. If he intervenes, my daughter can come back,” she says.

The dispute over Baby M has revived memories of a similar case from 2011 when two Indian children were taken from their parents in Norway. They were eventually returned to India a year later.

Suranya Aiyar, former lawyer and activist who helped the Indian family in Norway and is now helping Baby M’s parents, says such cases are not uncommon.

“It’s a significant problem. The assumption is that it’s a brilliant solution, and needs no further discussion.”

The role of Jugendamt in cross-border family disputes has also been criticised by the European Parliament. In a scathing report in 2018, the EP accused the organisation of discrimination, being unfair to children of migrants, and harming the rights of both parents and the children they confiscate.

In a new report released in May, the EP said its Committee on Petitions still receives complaints about Jugendamt. “The role and actions of youth welfare offices are often seen as too far-reaching… Foreign parents feel disadvantaged compared to German parents.”

Protesters in the German city of Darmstadt in support of the repatriation of the Indian child

A better solution in cases like these, Ms Aiyar says, would be for the state to assign social workers to help families look after their children.

In Baby M’s case, she says, the only solution is for the government to step in.

“The child has done no wrong. Let her return to India. She’s an Indian citizen and she has every right to be here.”

The Indian government has said the case is being given “high priority”. MEA spokesperson Arindam Bagchi said earlier this month that they had “summoned the German Ambassador” to convey India’s concerns.

“At a minimum we believe this child’s cultural rights and rights as an Indian are being infringed upon,” Mr Bagchi said at a media briefing. “We have asked for the early return of the child to India and we will continue to press Germany on this matter,” he added.

A German embassy spokesman in Delhi refused to comment on the case. But government sources in Germany said the case was in court and out of their hands, adding that they were working with India to find a resolution to the case.

Indian authorities say they have identified a family in Gujarat – the western Indian state to which the family belongs – where Baby M can be placed in foster care.

Dr Kiran Aggarwal, retired government paediatrician and former member of the child welfare committee of the Delhi government, says the child should be with her parents.

“India has very robust child protection laws and if the German court repatriates her, she can be looked after in India,” she said.

As time passes, Dia says each day adds to her worry that she’s losing her child bit by bit.

“She’s not being able to learn her mother tongue Gujarati. She only speaks German, how will I be able to speak to her?” she asks.

The family is also struggling to pay the 9m rupees ($108,477; £85,554) they have been ordered to fork out for foster care and court costs.

“We raised money through crowdfunding and have already paid 5m rupees. We are a middle-class family. They have broken us morally and emotionally, now they are trying to break us financially too,” she says.

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Infections could force schools to shut

The Bangkok Metropolitan Administration (BMA) is ordering schools in the capital to follow preventive measures for hand-foot-and-mouth disease (HFMD), respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and dengue fever since the viruses have become widespread among school kids.

Bangkok governor Chadchart Sittipunt yesterday presided over an event at Wichuthit School in Din Daeng district to promote hygiene and virus prevention in schools.

He said the number of HFMD cases is five times higher than last year. They have been found mostly in daycare centres and among children aged under five.

Most HFMD cases are found to have fevers in the first three days before they develop rashes on their hands, feet and in the mouth. No HFMD deaths have been found this year.

If many classes are found to have HFMD, RSV and dengue cases, which are all highly transmissible diseases, the schools must temporarily close down.

They can be treated at home in 5-7 days, but young kids who do not receive treatment early might develop threatening symptoms.

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