Indonesia’s middle class lament ‘worsening’ plight, as sharp drop in their population sets off economic alarm bell

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JAKARTA: &nbsp, It has been four times since Mr Muhammad Yudhi past had a stable job. Before being laid off in 2020 as a result of an economic downturn brought on by the COVID-19 crisis, the 33-year-old motorbike taxi drivers used to operate at a cotton factory one hour south of Jakarta.

” I’ve been applying for stock work once more but they told me I’m very old. He told CNA that anyone wants to find cheap youths who are recently graduated from high school.

Being a motorcycle taxi driver does not provide the economic security and advantages found in shop work, according to Mr. Yudhi. &nbsp,

” Even if you are on the road all day, the most you can make is 100, 000 rupiah ( US$ 6.51 ). After diesel and food, the most you take home with you is 70, 000 dirhams, usually less”, the father of two said.

Mr. Yudhi earns about 2 million dirhams per month, little enough to pay rent in a crowded area of Jakarta and provide for his family. It is a far cry from his time as a factory worker, where he received a regular income of 3.5 million dirhams plus wellness benefits and a quarterly benefit. &nbsp,

” What can you get for 2 million dirhams”? he bemoaned. ” I ca n’t be a motorcycle taxi driver all my life. There’s no job security, no health coverage, nothing”.

In the past five decades, Mr. Yudhi is just one of the millions of Indonesians who have transitioned from the middle class to the young middle school.

According to the Indonesian Statistics Bureau ( BPS), there used to be 57.33 million middle-class Indonesians in 2019, representing 21.4 per cent of that year’s 267 million population. &nbsp,

The latest BPS information, which was issued on Aug 28, but showed that the number of individuals categorised as middle-class has dropped to 47.85 million in 2024, or 17.1 per cent of the country’s recent inhabitants of 289 million.

The middle class is defined as those who have a monthly per capita consumption of between 2 million and 9 million dirhams, or 3.5 % to 17 days the poverty line according to the BPS.

During a legislative hearing on August 29th, BPS acting chief Dr. Amalia Adininggar Widyasanti claimed that the majority of those who once lived in the middle class have since been downgraded to the young end class. &nbsp,

According to the statistics ministry, the number of young thick class- those who earn 1.5 to 3.5 times the hunger series or between 874, 398 and 2.04 million ringgit a month- rose from 128.85 million in 2019 to 137.5 million this year. They form 49.22 per share of Indonesia’s community.

” I’m sad”, Mr Yudhi said when asked how he felt about being demoted from the middle class demographic. It seems as though we are going sideways as a nation. Women’s security may be improving, never worsening”.

His family is a part-time home cleaner making only 600, 000 ringgit. &nbsp, &nbsp,

Their youngest brother was supposed to begin kindergarten this time. But with no money in the bank, the home decided to postpone the four-year-old’s knowledge by another time.

Some experts believe that the declining end class’s purchasing power and declining middle class may be the cause of an economic slump as the demand for goods declines.

“( The decline in Indonesia’s middle class ) is an alarm which signals that the economy is in danger”, Mr Bhima Yudhistira, executive director of think-tank Centre for Economic and Law Studies ( CELIOS ) told CNA.

In 2018, middle-class use accounted for 41.9 per cent of total home use in Indonesia.

By 2023, this number had dropped quickly to 36.8 per share, aligning with an overall decline in home use, according to statistics from&nbsp, the Institute for Economic and Community Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia ( LPEM FEB UI).

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Commentary: Is Singapore a resilient city?

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Growing UNCERTAINTIES

Singapore continues to struggle to build up its industrial resilience in spite of the strength of its economy and infrastructure. &nbsp,

For example, FM Global’s Global Resilience Index ranks Singapore 56th in its endurance measures for climate shift. Singapore is very vulnerable to climate-related challenges, such as rising sea levels and rising temperatures, according to the index’s assessment. &nbsp,

Urban heating is a special challenge for Singapore. Singapore was ranked 19th out of 30 international cities in the recently released Savills Heat Resilience Index rankings for its capacity to deal with extreme industrial temperature.

Singapore’s vulnerability to weather change is hardly surprising. In the form of the president’s Green Plan 2030, methods are already being taken to improve Singapore’s general resilience to climate change.

Despite these attempts, climate change is actually a “wicked” policy issue that is difficult to predict and that also causes major disruption to world.

For example, climate scientists have recently discovered that the increase in water levels and global temperatures has been increasing much more quickly than originally thought. International conditions have increased significantly more quickly than originally anticipated, according to a research published in the Oxford Open Climate Change next year.

The potential risks from climate change are difficult to predict and calculate, giving politicians constantly shifting priorities and boundaries, in contrast to financial uncertainty or security risks.

This contrasts favorably with economic crises, in which economists generally use financial and economic data to make fairly accurate projections. Data on climate change are typically less reliable or repetitive. This is a crucial point to remember.

In his seminal work Chance, Profit and Uncertainty, American analyst Frank Knight makes an essential difference between “risk” and “uncertainty”. While risk may be measured and quantified, there are no analytical methods for measuring or projecting confusion.

The “black swan,” according to mathematician Nassim Taleb, is undoubtedly the most well-known illustration of this uncertainty. It represents a very problematic event that cannot be predicted in advance.

In other words, there are some risks or “risks” that can be predicted with some analytical clarity. In other situations, such as weather change, potential risks are greater characterised as “uncertainties” that cannot be predicted or measured.

What is policymakers do to create cities and communities that are more resistant to black birds and uncertainty in light of this information? Can we actually guard against risks that have not yet been developed, let alone understood and predicted?

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Senate eyes one-day budget bill wrap-up

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PUBLISHED: 7 Sep 2024 at 06: 01

The House of Representatives has passed a 3.75 trillion baht budget for the fiscal year starting October. The Upper House looks set to conduct all three readings of the budget bill on Monday. (Photo: Nutthawat Wichieanbut)
A 3.75 trillion ringgit resources for the fiscal year that kicks off in October has been approved by the House of Representatives. On Monday, the Upper House appears to be scheduled to hold all three observations of the funds costs. ( Photo: Nutthawat Wichieanbut )

The three analyses of the 3.75-trillion-baht resources costs for the 2025 fiscal year are scheduled for Monday in the Upper House, according to Deputy Senate Speaker Gen Kriangkrai Srirak on Friday, with approval possibly expected the same day.

He claimed that the Senate’s decision to introduce the bill’s mission is due to the Senate’s prior establishment of a special committee that would start deliberating it while it was being scrutinized in the Lower House this week from Tuesday to Thursday.

Gen Kriangkrai expressed his strong belief that the Senate’s prepared one-day costs deliberation will go smoothly and be finished in time for this horizontal deliberation.

The House of Representatives approved the budget costs late on Thursday, which will allow recently appointed prime minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra to lower state spending and ratchet up a ratcheting up the country’s economy.

309 legislators voted in favor of the budget bill in its third and final studying on Thursday in the 500-member House of Representatives, proposing a 4.2 % increase in federal spending starting with the 2025 fiscal year. A total of 155 legislators voted against the costs at the end of a three-day conversation.

The new budget legislation will become effective after a see has been published in the Royal Gazette if it receives Senate support.

A clause in the budget’s budget includes funding for the coalition government’s questionable cash grant to restart manufacturing and consumption.

Ms. Paetongtarn must overcome the strain of revitalizing Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy, which is currently stifled by a nearly record levels of household debt, slow exports, and a production sector depressed by cheap imports, generally from China.

The new premier has pledged to take action to restore the country’s economy to its” crisis” mode, and she will give a full report to congress on the laws of her government next year.

Her state is also expected to redo the program known as the “digital wallet,” which promised 10,000 baht each to nearly all adult Thais.

The program aims to increase economic growth by more than twice the average sub-2 % rate for nearly a decade under military-backed rule, to 5 %.

Senator Premsak Piayura requested that the Senate hold a meeting on Monday to deliberate all three readings on Friday, in his power as deputy president of the Senate’s special commission vetting the budget costs. He added that the council had already finished its review of the costs and would visit on the Senate to call a meeting on the same day.

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CPF refuses to accept tilapia blame

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PUBLISHED: 7 Sep 2024 at 04: 00

Blackchin tilapia. (Photo: Apichart Jinakul)
Blackchin fish. ( Photo: Apichart Jinakul )

Charoen Pokphand Foods ( CPF ) has once more denied being responsible for the blackchin tilapia outbreak, but its critics may not have been completely convinced because it relied on findings from its own investigation into the invasive fish scourge rather than that of a third party.

On Thursday, native sailors in Samut Songkhram filed a complaint with Bangkok South Civil Court against CPF, seeking over 2.4 billion bass in payment.

According to a cause, the company is accused of failing to stop the blackchin fish, which the corporation imported from Ghana in 2010 for breeding studies at its growth center in the Amphawa region, from invading local waterways.

A fact-finding committee was established by CPF on Friday to look into the issue from the beginning of 2006 until the study’s removal in earlier 2011. CPF asserted that it was not responsible for the epidemic.

CPF stated that it is prepared to seek legal help to alleviate myths and raise cultural awareness.

The business acknowledged the significance of the matter, saying it is assured that it is not to blame for the blackchin fish outbreak.

In response, CPF has taken aggressive steps in concert with the Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives to lessen the anguish of the general public and has actively supported efforts to find solutions with all important industries, it said in a statement.

The company’s initiatives include supporting the government and communities by introducing 200, 000 predatory fish, and promoting the purchase of 2 million kilos of blackchin fish to approach them for seafood products.

In the past, the business has delivered 70, 000 pale sea bass to federal agencies and areas in some regions. It has organised fishing actions on 30 times in 14 regions, catching blackchin fish, the declaration added.

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Typhoon Yagi to hit North

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PUBLISHED: 7 Sep 2024 at 04: 00

Twelve northern and northeastern provinces have been advised to get ready for heavy rain to start pouring on Monday as Typhoon Yagi makes ashore in Vietnam now.

The typhoon is expected to be downgraded to a low-pressure area as it moves inland over the upper part of Laos, according to the National Hydroinformatics Data Center ( NHC).

Beginning today, heavy rainfall may fall on the northern regions of Mae Hong Son, Chiang Mai, Tak, Chiang Rai, Lampang, Lamphun, Phayao, and Nan and the northern regions of Loei, Nong Khai, Bung Kan and Nakhon Phanom.

The western monsoon’s influence has also been felt by those in the eastern region and the northern region of the South, to prepare for heavy rain and potential flash floods.

Smaller boats are advised to stay on shore this weekend while the Andaman Sea and the lower portion of the Gulf of Thailand are expected to rise by three meters.

Surasee Kittimonthon, Office of the National Water Resources ( ONWR ) secretary-general, reported that water reception areas have been set up to reduce the flow of water into Chao Phraya dam, which is the main source of water from the North.

He predicted that between September 9 and September 10, the water flow through the C2 water depot in Nakhon Sawan will increase by 1,500 to 2,00 cubic meters per second.

A ahead command center may be established on September 15 in Ayutthaya to regulate the fluids situation in the Central Plains, according to Mr. Surasee, adding that all parties involved have been instructed to create plans to prevent and alleviate flooding.

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Was it one big conspiracy?

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Was it one great crime?

Srettha: Downfall orchestrated?

Srettha: Downfall orchestrated?

Experts are tempted to attribute the new departure of Srettha Thavisin as prime minister to a Pheu Thai “exit strategy” if one were ever developed for its strongly contentious digital budget scheme.

Many in the ruling group may have been shocked by Mr. Srettha’s removal from office on August 14th due to the Constitutional Court’s treatment. Some social observers, however, had predicted Mr Srettha’s end the day the event against him was accepted by the court.

Despite knowing full nicely about his contempt of court judgment following his pay effort in the Supreme Court, the court held Mr. Srettha accountable for appointing Pichit Chuenban as prime minister’s office secretary.

By handing them a paper case containing 2 million baht in income a month earlier, Pichit and two other attorneys attempted to pay Supreme Court leaders.

In a case before the Supreme Court in 2008, the three attorneys represented Thaksin. Thaksin Shinawatra, who was at the moment the prime minister, was facing legal action for assisting his then-wife, Khunying Potjaman na Pombejra, in getting a perfect area package on Ratchadaphisek Road at a discount.

The three were not charged with attempted bribe, but instead were always arraigned because the police, who were looking into the situation, found insufficient evidence to support their indictment. Afterwards, the Attorney-General decided not to prosecute the trio on suspicion of bribery.

But, the Supreme Court found the attorneys guilty of contempt of court in connection with the alleged corruption.

Pichit’s high-profile faith very much became common knowledge, and the Constitutional Court said that, as prime minister, Mr Srettha should have been fully aware of Pichit’s faith, which rendered him unqualified by law to hold a government chair.

The courts made the case that Mr. Srettha was conscious of Pichit’s controversial past. They highlighted that on Aug 29 last year, he held an immediate appointment to review Pichit’s skills, indicating that he knew there might be an issue.

By choosing Pichit to be a minister, Mr. Srettha, in the court’s opinion, had committed a serious moral violation that warranted his departure as prime minister.

A social observer concluded that Mr. Srettha’s departure may have been planned with the intention of sinking the modern wallet plan in its current and likely law-breaking form.

The observer noted that Pichit’s credentials were problematic when he was mentioned for a supervisory position in the first Srettha cupboard, which was formed shortly after Mr. Srettha took the oath of office last year.

At the time, Pichit’s election was apparently withdrawn.

The watcher hypothesized that Mr. Srettha may have been pressured by strong Pheu Thai officials to accept Pichit into the cupboard, launching a “timebomb” that would put him in serious trouble as a result of the ethics legislation introduced by the current law.

Criticism had targeted Mr. Srettha because he had failed to unite the Pheu Thai elite and luminaries behind him. He was perceived as being sensitive to being overshadowed by some officials because he was not an MP with no known party to the back, according to the spectator.

The modern wallet was heavily criticized for putting a strain on the finances, and authorities expressed concerns about the propriety of putting together a project worth a staggering half a trillion baht.

The spectator wondered whether Mr Srettha’s death had been anticipated, if never orchestrated, to form a new government and enable a restore of the bag program.

Because it was an election assurance that Pheu Thai is legally required to fulfill, the scheme may be canceled. Making Pheu Thai head Paetongtarn Shinawatra primary minister, which has introduced a new government, was, however, allow for the scheme to be rejigged to make it more palatable to the populace.

For example, the new government has stated that in the initial phase of the program, beneficiaries will receive income rather than digital money. It takes longer to money in for the participating stores and is generally more difficult to access and use, especially for older consumers.

Given that Pheu Thai had put two different prime ministerial applicants on its supply listing, the observer claimed that Mr. Srettha may not have been a necessary leader right away. They were Ms Paetongtarn and gathering top professional, Chaikasem Nitisiri.

Officials of the coalition parties were summoned to an immediate appointment at the Chan Songla castle owned by Thaksin the moment Mr. Srettha was removed from office. The leaders were officially informed of Thaksin’s decision to pick Mr Chaikasem as Mr Srettha’s alternative.

But, Pheu Thai individuals demanded that Ms Paetongtarn succeed Mr Srettha. They finally came out on top when Ms. Paetongtarn announced soon after that she was ready to lead the new government.

Concerns keep on coming

Paetongtarn: A blunder may drop her

Paetongtarn: A blunder may drop her

Social researchers are unsure of how much the case will be in place because Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra and her Pheu Thai Party are alleged to have received nine problems while it was being formed.

One key petition, which was filed with the Election Commission (EC ) on Aug 19 by an anonymous complainant, alleges that the main coalition party has allowed itself to come under the influence of Thaksin Shinawatra, Ms Paetongtarn’s father, who is no longer a party member.

It is against the law for a celebration to permit a non-member to effect, dominate, or direct group actions in any way under parts 28 and 29 of the Political Parties Act. Such an offence comes with serious consequences, including the dissolution of a party.

The Constitutional Court’s ouster of Srettha Thavisin as prime minister on August 14 for her lack of integrity in appointing former prisoner Pichit Chuenban to the cabinet is thought to have sparked the petition.

At Thaksin’s Chan Songla mansion on Charan Sanitwong Road in Bangkok, allegedly oversaw a meeting about replacing Mr. Srettha’s replacement, were prominent coalition figures spotted there. Pheu Thai MPs chose Ms Paetongtarn instead of Chaikasem Nitisiri, despite early reports saying they had decided to support Chaikasem Nitisiri.

Observers claim that Thaksin did not resisted speaking out in public about politics, and that it is evidence that he continues to be the true leader behind the ruling Pheu Thai Party and the new government.

His” Vision for Thailand 2024″ speech, which was attended by the Paetongtarn government for a high-profile dinner on August 22, received criticism for being a condensed version of the policy statement that parliament will soon adopt.

A PPRP-led group led by Prawit Wongsuwon has also been cut out of the coalition by Pheu Thai. One misstep could spell trouble for Ms Paetongtarn, according to political observers.

Stithorn Thananithichot, director of the Office of Innovation for Democracy at the King Prajadhipok’s Institute, told the Bangkok Post that how long Ms Paetongtarn’s administration stays in power depends on its performance.

Because Thaksin is anticipated to lead the conservative party in the fight against the People’s Party, the petitions are unlikely to have a negative impact on the Pheu Thai Party. The party is expected to hold onto its position of power for the rest of its term if Pheu Thai fulfills its promises and wins over voters, he said.

The analyst also considers whether the government’s ability to implement Thaksin’s ideas and whether they are appropriate for the country’s situation and in line with the law.

” Policy implementation must follow the legal framework, unlike when the Thai Rak Thai Party was in power.” Let’s wait for the policy statement. If it turns out to be as bland as Mr Srettha’s, it wo n’t work”, he said.

Thai Rak Thai, founded by Thaksin, was dissolved over electoral fraud.

According to Mr Stithorn, Mr Srettha was never fully committed to any issues, including the digital wallet handout programme, despite it being Pheu Thai’s flagship policy. The former prime minister never went into specifics about the charter rewrite, just making broad statements about it.

The Pheu Thai-led government’s major flaw is regarded as having ethical standards, but the coalition is working to address the issue and prevent falling into the same trap, he noted.

Narumon Pinyosinwat was nominated by a faction led by PPRP secretary-general Capt Thamanat Prompow to succeed him as minister of agriculture and cooperatives, while Chada Thaised’s Bhumjaithai’s Chada Thaised withdrew his bid to join the cabinet, allowing his daughter Sabeeda Thaised to become a deputy interior minister in place.

” Obviously, they were trying to spare the government legal trouble in the future”, he said.

Even though the government enjoys strong support in the House, according to Phichai Ratnatilaka Na Bhuket, a lecturer in political science at the National Institute of Development Administration, its fate is likely to be determined by the complaints made against it.

The prime minister is expected to resolve a number of issues, including the purchase of a contentious monastic plot that includes the Alpine Golf Club and a residential complex.

The land in Pathum Thani’s Klong Luang district was donated by a widow, Noem Chamnanchartsakda, to Wat Dhammamikaramvoraviharn in Prachuap Khiri Khan back in 1971.

After her death, the Mahamongkut Ratchawittayalai Foundation, which was appointed as executor of her estate, sold the land to Alpine Real Estate and the Alpine Golf and Sports Club, of which Ms Paetongtarn is a shareholder.

Any petitions questioning Ms Paetongtarn’s ethics will take time to process, as they will be reviewed by the National Anti-Corruption Commission and the Supreme Court’s Office for Holders of Political Positions, he noted.

The Constitutional Court will examine the petition for the dissolution of the Pheu Thai Party, but it may only take six months. Therefore, the government is anticipated to pass the first six months without any difficulties. After that, it’s anybody’s guess what will happen”, he said.

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Vietnam death row tycoon faces new multibillion-dollar fraud charges

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A Vietnamese property tycoon who was sentenced to death in a US$ 27 billion fraud case will face a second trial this month, according to state media on Friday ( Sep 6 ).

In one of the biggest problem instances in history, Truong My Lan, head of the main creator Van Thinh Tubby, was found guilty in April of swindling money from Saigon Commercial Bank (SCB) over the course of more than a decade.

According to the state’s constitutional paper, Lan and 33 accomplices will then stand trial for one-month charges of fraud, “money fraud, and improper cross-border prostitution of cash” starting on September 19 in Ho Chi Minh City.

Around 36, 000 people were affected by the situation, the report said.

According to the report, Lan and her collaborators allegedly stole around US$ 18 billion from SCB between earlier 2018 and October 2022 by issuing bonds and stealing their assets.

To get the cash, Lan, 67, ordered an accomplice to withdraw cash and move it out of SCB’s method.

She finally concealed the cash’s sources and used it to settle business debts or exported the funds abroad for fictitious contracts, according to the document.

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