Does the Sabina Shoal in Manila become the turning point for US treatment in the tense South China Sea clashes between China and Philippines?
The low tide feature was jousted over by Chinese and Spanish Coast Guard vessels over the weekend, which is located only 138 kilometers from the country’s east coast and 1,200 kilometers from Hainan, China’s southernmost province.
While Beijing insists that Sabina Shoal belongs within its expansive nine-dash line claim to the majority of the South China Sea, the Philippines claims it belongs within its exclusive economic zone ( EEZ ).
Both sides blamed the other for the ship motion, just like there were past water clashes over other disputed shoals and features. Chinese Coast Guard (CCG) spokesman Liu Dejun accused the Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) of “deliberately collid]ing ]” with one of its ships near the shoal.
” The Philippine send No 9701 consciously collided with the Chinese ship No 5205, which was usually enforcing rights and law enforcement, in an unethical and dangerous way, resulting in a collision”, the Chinese official said. He added the “responsibility lies wholly with the Philippines”.
The PCG director Jay Tarriela fired up by accusing Chinese troops of “deliberately ramming” the PCG’s premier vessel, the BRP Teresa Magbanua, three days without offense.
Despite the Philippine Coast Guard’s interference, he wrote in a blog on X that” the Chinese Coast Guard vessel intentionally rammed and collided with the fleet today.”
Washington immediately agreed with its ally in the defense treaty, the Philippines, when the US State Department criticized China for “deliberately colliding three occasions” with the PCG vessel.
According to US State Department spokesman Matthew Miller,” China has violently disrupted constitutional Philippine flying and maritime procedures in the South China Sea on numerous occasions throughout August 2024,” including Sabina Shoal.
China has doubled down on its military presence in the contested marine area of the Spratly Island chain in an effort to calm the conflict.
According to Philippine authorities, China has parked the largest number of CCG and Chinese maritime militia ( CMM) vessels ever in the contested maritime area, underscoring China’s preponderance of force vis-à-vis the Philippines.
Between August 27 and September 2, there were 203 boats spotted, with 71 of those deployed close to the Sabina Shoal.
The administration of Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. is now openly debating a significant update of its US defence empire as China expands its appearance and steadily erodes the Philippines ‘ police and supplies power through send collisions.
Rear Admiral Alexandar Lopez of the Philippine Navy has publicly called for a “review” of the Philippine-US Mutual Defense Treaty ( MDT), while Gilbert Teodoro Jr., the president of the Philippines, has advocated for” collective multilateral action” with regional states that align with China.
Armed Forces of the Philippines ( AFP ) chief General Romeo Brawner Jr. stated that joint patrols and resupply missions with the US would be a “last resort” if China continues to cause tensions.
Despite such hedges, the risk of military conflict is obviously rising. After Manila just properly fortified its de facto defense foundation, the grounded BRP Sierra Madre vehicle, over the disputed Second Thomas Shoal, China is likely to experience yet another strategic setback.
After repeated turnovers and vicious interventions failed to deter Manila, Beijing settled for a hazy “interim deal” that allowed both parties to avoid encounter and ease tension for what turned out to be just a short period.
China is now likely to be worried that a repressed Philippines may try to defend its claims across the Spratly Islands, including over the Sabina Shoal, in order to resurrect its momentum from the Second Thomas Shoal.
China has been fairly successful in degrading the Philippines ‘ supplies and guard ability by damaging its vessels, despite the fact that it has so far refused to kinetically impose its will.
Major Spanish strategists have warned against China’s “mission shoot” strategy, which intentionally harms the country’s minimal fleet of high-performance warships.
Spanish officials are doubling down on their efforts to acquire a variety of fresh coast guard and marine vessels from different partners and friends as a response.
Thus far, Japan and South Korea have been the Philippines ‘ biggest providers of coast guard and maritime assets, both. However, there is now a desire for Manila to quickly purchase more affordable, just retired US naval resources.
The two friends held the first-ever” two plus two” conference last month in Manila, where US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken made announcements about a fresh US$ 500 million security assistance deal for the Philippines.
That sum, of course, wo n’t be nearly enough to counterbalance China’s rising military and naval might, as upgrading the Philippines ‘ laggard naval capacity will take years and cost billions.  ,
Since China has been using a variety of “gray area” techniques in increasingly aggressive way, there is a force to improve the Philippine-US ally in way that have a more immediate deterrent effect. China has used the tactic with” proper impunity,” claim critics in Phillipsburg.
A formal “review” of the MDT was recently requested by Admiral Alexander Lopez, spokesman of the National Maritime Council ( NMC), a body that oversees interagency coordination on Philippine strategy in the South China Sea.
” For me, the MDT has been there since 1951, and since then, the corporate landscape has changed but little. But, maybe it’s high time today to make the review”, Lopez explained, without clarifying what specific measures he sought to update.
For some Filipino strategists, the US could update its definition of “armed attack” and, consequently, adjust the threshold for proper activation of common defense obligations to hinder and blunt China’s grey zone tactics.
The Philippine military chief, however, has insisted that so far his forces are capable of handling the situation. ” The attitude of the Armed Forces of the Philippines, as dictated by the Philippine laws, is for us to first rely on ourselves”, Brawner said following a meeting with the visiting US INDOPACOM commander.
” We are going to use every means at our disposal to accomplish the mission,” in this case, resupply and rotation of our troops.
He did point out that the Philippines would” then look for other options when we are already constrained to doing it ourselves,” such as joint patrols and resupply missions with American forces, if China continued with its aggressive maneuvers.
Teodoro Jr., the secretary of defense of the Philippines, has stressed the value of a multilateral strategy that ensures the Southeast Asian nation maintains its strategic autonomy, avoids overdependence on the US, and makes use of its extensive network of strategic partnerships.
Teodoro argued that” the counterweight is a stronger collective multilateral action against China,” stressing that “diplomatic statements alone from key allies are” not sufficient” to deter China.
US officials have tried to reassure their Philippine treaty ally and stressed their commitment to a more effective deterrence of China’s intimidation tactics in response to growing frustration in Manila.
During a recent surprise visit to the Philippines, US INDOPACOM commander Samuel Paparo stated,” We certainly have prepared a range of options and US INDOPACOM stands ready, if so called, after consultations in accordance with the treaty to execute those shoulder-to- shoulder with our ally.”
However, he refrained from providing operational details to stop China from taking” a countermeasure to those” by providing operational details.
Follow Richard Javad Heydarian on X at @Richeydarian